9 月社融存量增速9%，环比持平于8 月：9 月，社融新增4.12 万 亿，同比多增5638 亿元，政府债和表外未贴现票据同比大幅多增 是主要拉动因素。9 月政府债延续8 月以来的同比大幅多增态势， 叠加基数效应，对社融的新增形成支撑，符合我们此前的预判。

货币派生原理决定社融为M2之源，因此，M2与社融增速正相关。近年M2增速底部企稳回 升体现较宽信用政策效果。同时，社融扩张向M2传导包含两次过渡：社融向银行资产端的 过渡以及银行资产端向银行存款过渡。这两次过渡均存在不同步因素，因此，现实中M2与 社融增速仅存在同向性，二者增速差长期存在且阶段性扩大或收窄。

Predictive analytics can be described as a branch of advanced analytics used to make predictions about unknown future events and activities that lead to decision-making. Predictive analytics in healthcare means helping healthcare professionals make more effective and efficient operational and clinical decisions, predict trends, and even find ways to control the spread of disease. This refers to the analysis of current and historical health data that enables.

Ground and cargo handling systems are essential components that facilitate the efficient handling and transportation of passenger baggage and cargo shipments within airports. An efficient ground and cargo handling system can enhance baggage and cargo handling capacities, streamline processes, improve the passenger experience, and prioritize safety. Ground and cargo handling services are indispensable to airports, ensuring that baggage and cargo can be handled smoothly, even during peak periods due to their effectiveness and efficiency. Airlines' transportation of over 52 million tons of goods per year highlights the crucial role of air cargo services. Air cargo services are more secure and safer, as the risk of cargo loss is relatively low compared with other modes of transportation. Hence, efficient ground and cargo handling services are vital at airports for safer cargo and passenger handling.

受国内经济延续复苏、价格企稳回升影响，9 月财政收入同比降幅收窄、延续回暖；但受制于收入端恢复不足，支出增速有所回落，教育、社保、卫生健康等刚性支出领域发力减弱，向债务付息、科学技术、基建领域支出增多；政府性基金方面，收入端仍延续疲弱，但受专项债加快发行影响，支出端明显加速。整体看，9 月税收收入延续弱修复，土地出让收入依旧疲弱，对地方财政发力形成一定掣肘。

首先，这是宏观预期一次重大变化。增发国债、调整预算，意味着中央政府明确加杠杆，而且是今明两年联动，这是政策逻辑和取向的实质性变化。其次，这是市场底层逻辑的重大变化。财政与货币组合决定了总体定价方向，宽货币多一点还是宽财政多一点，决定债市胜率。今年以来，财政总体并无实质增量，而货币继续保持宽松，这是市场风险偏好下降助推利率下行的重要政策逻辑。增发国债和调整预算，意味着财政转向更为积极，参考历史，货币即使保持宽松，债市仍然较大概率承压。

25 年前的情形“今日再现”，时空相似性验证财政扩张合理性历史上，我国曾在 1998-2000 年连续三年进行了年中赤字调整，而如今时隔 25 年，98 年的情形“今日再现”。1998 年，美联储持续加息，亚洲金融危机爆发，众多东亚国家面临股债汇三杀局面，98 年特大洪水灾害更是给我国经济运行造成了较大的冲击，我国随即在当年年中开启了大规模的财政政策进行对冲。

百亿基金经理如何看市场焦点？随着 2023 年基金三季报陆续披露，我们以“普通股票型+ 偏股混合型+灵活配置型”为统计口径，梳理了部分管理基金规模超百亿的基金经理对于未来市场以及结构选择的看法，并进一步针对人工智能、半导体链、新能源链、医药板块、消费板块、 国防装备、港股整体以及顺周期链等市场焦点话题及关注领域梳理了相关观点，以供投资者参考。

2023 年三季度市场基金份额小幅上升，资产净值小幅下降，从变化趋势看，2019 年四季度以来基金市场规模总体增长趋势较为显著，不过2022年市场整体表现不佳，基金市场规模增长总体有所放缓。根据 wind 数据统计，截至 2023 年三季度市场基金份额共计 26.0 万亿份，环比增加 0.2 万亿份。资产净值总额 27.2 万亿元，环比下降 0.2 万亿元。

Makreo research has published study on Global Automobile Industry Production and Consumption Market Report Edition 2023 Market assessment has been carried out using qualitative and quantitative methods and have combined the production and consumption scenario The market has witnessed many shifts in recent past after the COVID 19 outburst Russia Ukraine war The report also covers major automobile exporting and importing countries Future outlook has been assessed keeping various influencing factors into consideration and also to assess the expected opportunities in the market