The growth rate for developed economies like US, Japan, UK and European Union is estimated to decline sharply from 5.1% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022. Growth is further anticipated to slowdown in 2023 at 2.2%, mainly due to the continued winding down

Report titled “Global Health Insurance Market Driven by COVID 19 and Outlook to 2027 provides a holistic perspective of past, present and future market performance The study comprises of market dynamics that offers an understanding of the industry trends, driving forces, major challenges hampering the growth and also an analysis of the future opportunities which will help market players to leverage untapped business potential A Global health insurance policy covers services such as chronic illness treatment, psychiatric care, diagnosis, dental care, emergency evacuation, and others It usually charges a specified sum from the individual and pays for the policyholder's surgical and medical expenses

The growth rate for developed economies like US, Japan, UK and European Union is estimated to decline sharply from 5.1% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022. Growth is further anticipated to slowdown in 2023 at 2.2%, mainly due to the continued winding down of the fiscal and monetary policy support given during the pandemic. In developed economies inflation increased to 5.7% in 2022, as a result of Russia-Ukraine was that increased in commodity prices and broader price pressures.

从财政看，今年一般收入仅修复式增长，而卖地收入连续第二年低于预算，各地分化加大；但三保支出刚性，企业应收账款回收，加大地方政府现金流压力；2022和23年广义财政赤字虽扩，但考虑到土地融资下滑，财政扩张力度有限。从城投看，未来三年是到期高峰，地方隐债化解前轻后重，部分债务率高、财政自给率低、金融资源不足的区域，城投债再融资量缩、价升、期限短。

重资产化趋势下头部券商中信证券、中信建投和中金公司财务杠杆分别提升至4.62/4.50/5.52，但距离国际投行十倍左右的杠杆倍数仍有相当的提升空间；行业平均资本杠杆率从29.02%大幅下降至22.88%，而2022年营收规模前十的头部企业平均资本杠杆率仅14.65%。2022年营收前十的券商中，申万宏源、中金公司和广发证券面临资本杠杆率约束，中信证券、国泰君安、华泰证券和申万宏源面临净稳定资金率约束，中信证券面临流动性覆盖率约束。

23H1 业绩前瞻：行业业绩U 型底部。1、行业前瞻：①预计23H1 上市银行营收增速较23Q1 下降0.6pc 至0.7%，主要拖累因素是规模增速放缓、其他非息收入增速回落。全年来看，上市银行营收增速有望逐渐修复至3.4%，主要驱动因素是息差拖累改善和非息增速回升。②预计23H1 上市银行归母净利润增速较23Q1 持平于2.3%，全年来看，上市银行利润增速有望回升至5.2%，主要得益于信用成本改善。2、分类判断：预计23H1 上市银行业绩继续分化。①横向比较而言，优质城农商行营收利润增速较高，营收增速区间预计在0%~10%，个别银行营收增速可达10%。部分大中型银行22H1 营收增速仍有同比负增压力，增速区间在-10%~0%，全年有望回正。②环比变化角度，23H1 与23Q1 相比，城农商行业绩韧性最强，营收增速整体有望实现小幅回升。

过去半年银行复盘：基本面，与我们年度策略预期一致，上市银行营收和PPOP 增速自22 年四季度业绩继续放缓，23 年一季度受重定价影响继续承压；受益于经济回暖以及过去几年银行对资产质量的持续夯实，减值损失计提同比减少，对归母净利润增速形成支撑。

央企永续债发行规模自2016 年起快速增长，2020 年发行高峰达5821 亿元后发行规模逐渐趋于稳定。央企永续债存续规模共计1.24 万亿元，分别占央企产业债和非金融永续债的27%和48%，涉及40 家核心央企集团，发行主体共计151 家。央企永续债主要集中在集团和核心一、二级子公司，低层级子公司发行规模较低。工业和公用事业等重高杠杆、高负债率行业永续债规模超过5000 亿元，通过发行权益工具美化报表降低资产负债率。其中大唐集团、中电投集团、华能集团和中交建集团的合并口径存续永续债规模超过千亿，大唐集团计入权益永续债占净资产比重接近40%，央企债券新规实行之后，部分央企集团永续债发行额度或面临压降，央企永续债迈入存量市场。