政策频频落地，从更长视角布局造纸龙头低估值+业绩持续增长，18 年仍是投资主线，有望迎来戴维斯双击行情。造纸行业经历 11-15 年产能自然出清后，供需结构改善；16 年开始供给侧改革+环保限产政策加持，环保成为防范三大重大风险之一，纸厂理性收缩+政策从原材料/火电等方面限制，18 年供给端仍能获得有效克制。需求稳中有升，18 年龙头依托内生项目落地/外延并表盈利持续增长能力强，16-17 上涨中估值中枢并未提升（18 年业绩 25%+增长，估值 10X 左右），龙头弱化周期属性，强烈推荐布局造纸龙头戴维斯双击行情。 

零售端全国性卖场不断扩张，工程端龙头地产商精装采购高速增长，整装公司等高速发展为家具品牌提供了众多中小B 客户，渠道进击为家具行业向龙头集中创造良机。

轻工制造行业指数下跌 12.03%，在中信 29 个一级行业中位居中游，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 21.76%，行业跑输大盘，整体不及大盘表现。行业估值水平为 31.79 倍，预计在2018 行业估值会继续回调，但估值大幅下挫的可能性不大。

年前最后一周，环保部公布了 2018 年首批进口废纸配额。表面看，此次2018 年首批配额与 2017 年相比大幅缩减，但是我们认为两者不具备可比性。本次配额的批复极有可能是为缓解纸企生产压力进行的加急批复，预计2018 年上半年可能会再次出现较大配额总量的批复。

在全装修成品房政策不断推出、地产开发商相继变革、消费者成品房消费意愿稳步提升的背景下，房地产下游的家居行业将迎来新的变革和发展， B 端业务将成为企业新的增长点。我们认为，行业龙头如欧派家居、尚品宅配、金牌橱柜、帝王洁具、大亚圣象等依托其品牌、规模，供应链优势，将率先受益，行业集中度有望进一步提升，成长可期！ 

Outdoor flooring is an element that provides outdoor areas with attractive and durable floor covering. There are a number of flooring options that can provide an elegant design to the outdoor area. The different types of outdoor flooring are as follows: Outdoor floor tiles: A wide range of tile types are available that are formulated specifically for outdoor application. Many tiles feature grit pattern and texture to make the surface anti-slippery. The frost resistant and unglazed tiles are highly popular in this segment.

The expansion of the preschool market owing to the global increase in the rate of child enrollment to early childhood education provides an immense opportunity for preschool furniture manufacturers. The rise in competition between various preschools has made institutes provide students with better learning experience by offering good infrastructure along with other basic things like good teaching quality. The growth of the global preschool market has also led to the introduction of new learnings methods like technology-based or play-based learning. These are expected to provide a boost to the preschool furniture manufacturers.

2017 年业绩为王，消费板块受到追捧，轻工行业中优质消费白马股较少，排名偏靠后。子行业包装印刷和家用轻工连续两年市场表现不理想，造纸行业受益于供给侧改革。个股中少数龙头企业脱颖而出，符合市场风格，如晨鸣纸业、索菲亚等。 

本周沪深300指数下跌0.56%，轻工制造板块指数持平上周，跑赢大盘0.56pct，在28个子行业中的涨跌幅排名为第16名。子板块中，其他家用轻工和包装印刷板块表现较好，本周分别上涨1.29%和0.42%。

从年初到今年11月24日，造纸板块录得正收益，其余板块表现平淡，目前轻工制造PE（TTM）中值为44倍。房地产与家具行业有较强相关性，家具行业通常有半年到一年的滞后期。