截止 3 月 23 日，30 城新建住宅商品房 3 月成交同比增速达到 24.5%，其中一线、二线、三线同比增速分别达到 57%、6%、38%， 一线城市新房住宅成交量增速自 2 月起大幅提速，二线城市成交量增速 3 月由负转正，一二线城市地产销售明显边际改善。从高频数据看，最新一周（第 12 周）一线城市住宅成交同比增速达到 120%。 

我们中信建投轻工团队一直看好中国软体家居的巨大潜力，在前期发布多篇沙发深度与公司深度之后，进一步发布床垫行业的深度研究。 

The global furniture market witnessing a significant growth owing to stabilizing global economy and growing consumer confidence in developed as well as developing economies. The world GDP growth increased from 3.5% to 3.6% in 2018, while developed nations witnessed flat growth of 2% in 2017 and 2018. On the other hand, the emerging economies reported an uptick in GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.8% in 2018. People are now spending more on home furnishing products. The major factor for the increasing consumer confidence is the growing disposable income, higher standards of living, rapid urbanization, rise in dual-income households, and growing need for comfort and convenience.

受地产销量增速放缓以及行业竞争格局恶化，家居上市公司 2017-2018 年股价陆续回调。龙头公司欧派家居、索菲亚、尚品宅配、顾家家居均已陆续触及上市以来的历史估值低点。透过行业的变化看公司，我们依然认为其相对于中小公司具有一定核心竞争力，并看好中长期发展。

马来西亚、泰国对美出口增速提升；越南部分产品（如木材及木制品、纺织品等）2018年累计出口增速也同比提升 3.2pct 和 6.1pct。部分出口型企业为了保持成本优势和规避潜在贸易冲突，向东南亚等国家提前进行产能布局，目前家居企业有敏华控股、梦百合、顾家家居、喜临门等已开始进行全球化产能布局。

智能家居：以住宅为平台，基于物联网技术，由硬件（智能家电、智能硬件、安防控制设备、智能家具等）、软件系统、云计算平台构成的一个家居生态圈，并通过收集、分析用户行为数据为用户提供个性化生活服务。

Furniture are objects used to support various human activities such as seating, eating, sleeping, and others. They are made from various material such as wood, plastic, and metals, and are also used to hold and position an object at certain required height either to store things or for aesthetic appeal. In addition, the recent trend of modular furniture in urban cities has provided the consumer with various options to decorate the residential apartment. The scope of the study is intended to discuss the upcoming and present market trends of furniture. In addition, this report details current market trends, drivers, restraints, and opportunities and determines the future growth potential of the global furniture market.

我国的木门行业源起于手工打制木门， 板材作为木门生产过程中的最主要原材料，我国的品牌木门企业持续改进自身的生产硬的消费者口碑，依靠自身在木门板材、软皮、油漆、五金等方面的供应链和生产优势提升产品质量。

以优梵艺术为研究样本，我们认为其商业模式和发展历程，对传统家居企业的可借鉴之处在于对消费趋势、细分消费群体的精准把握，并进行相应的产品定位和渠道布局，优化消费体验。长期看好上市家居企业对家居新零售模式的探索。

今年政府工作报告中明确提出，深化增值税改革，将制造业等行业现行16%的税率降至13%，该政策将提振轻工龙头净利润。从我们测算结果来看（以2017 年财务数据为例），家居行业受益较为明显，议价能力强（毛利率高）&净利率低的龙头受益程度最大。