2019年2月，水运业固定资产投资继续呈现下降走势，降幅较上月有所扩大。根据交通运输部的最新统计数据，2019年1-2月，水路运输业城镇固定资产投资累计同比下降22.6%，降幅较上月扩大13个百分点。

在经贸环境等综合因素的影响下，2018年国际干散货运价指数继续上升，集装箱运输市场需求增速放缓。国内市场全年沿海散货运价指数小幅上行，出口集装箱市场整体波动较大。展望2019年，全球干散货运输市场将保持回升，集装箱运输市场增长势头继续放缓。国内沿海大宗散货需求持续减弱，港口集装箱吞吐量增长稳定增速下降。

The competitive landscape and structure of India’s transportation sector is different depending on the segment. What is common to all segments is that they are quite capital intensive and mature, which makes the entry of new players problematic. Companies tend to work at low margins, civil aviation companies and road passenger carriers in particular. This is because the government has enacted travel fare regulation policies to ensure that passenger travel is affordable to all Indians. The situation is particularly dire in the bus and railway segments. Bus carriers are usually debt-laden because of low fares, obligations to service unprofitable routes alongside the profitable ones and growing requirements for the environmental friendliness of vehicles, coupled with fuel price risks. The national railways, in turn, are grappling with non-paying passengers, technical obsolescence and the need to fulfil its widely recognised duties for social inclusion.

根据民航局数据，3 月全行业共完成旅客运输量 5350.4 万人，同比增长 4.0%，增速较去年同期下降 11.9 个百分点。其中，国内、国际航线分别完成 4745.8万人、604.6 万人，同比分别增长 2.8%、14.1% 。

春节错期影响3 月同比读数，Q1 整体客座率表现优秀。我们预计全行业3 月

整体ASK 增速约7.6%，1-3 月累计ASK 增速11.2%。主要系春节错期（18

年春运最后一天为3 月12 号，今年为3 月1 号）影响同比读数以及首都机场

跑道维修航班减班（国航3 月ASK 增长仅为4%）。全行业1 季度来看，客座

率为83.7%，同比提高0.3 个百分点，创历史新高。