在经贸环境等综合因素的影响下，2018年国际干散货运价指数继续上升，集装箱运输市场需求增速放缓。国内市场全年沿海散货运价指数小幅上行，出口集装箱市场整体波动较大。展望2019年，全球干散货运输市场将保持回升，集装箱运输市场增长势头继续放缓。国内沿海大宗散货需求持续减弱，港口集装箱吞吐量增长稳定增速下降。

The competitive landscape and structure of India’s transportation sector is different depending on the segment. What is common to all segments is that they are quite capital intensive and mature, which makes the entry of new players problematic. Companies tend to work at low margins, civil aviation companies and road passenger carriers in particular. This is because the government has enacted travel fare regulation policies to ensure that passenger travel is affordable to all Indians. The situation is particularly dire in the bus and railway segments. Bus carriers are usually debt-laden because of low fares, obligations to service unprofitable routes alongside the profitable ones and growing requirements for the environmental friendliness of vehicles, coupled with fuel price risks. The national railways, in turn, are grappling with non-paying passengers, technical obsolescence and the need to fulfil its widely recognised duties for social inclusion.

根据民航局数据，3 月全行业共完成旅客运输量 5350.4 万人，同比增长 4.0%，增速较去年同期下降 11.9 个百分点。其中，国内、国际航线分别完成 4745.8万人、604.6 万人，同比分别增长 2.8%、14.1% 。

春节错期影响3 月同比读数，Q1 整体客座率表现优秀。我们预计全行业3 月

整体ASK 增速约7.6%，1-3 月累计ASK 增速11.2%。主要系春节错期（18

年春运最后一天为3 月12 号，今年为3 月1 号）影响同比读数以及首都机场

跑道维修航班减班（国航3 月ASK 增长仅为4%）。全行业1 季度来看，客座

率为83.7%，同比提高0.3 个百分点，创历史新高。

2019年，城投投资者采取“短久期+低评级”策略，短端利差先行收窄，长端随后跟进，而3月开始短端出现回调，从历史分位数来看进一步回调的概率较大。

日本铁路改革背景。二战后日本产业结构调整、公路运输逐渐崛起，导致日本铁路运输业市场份额大幅下降，同时由于铁路人员冗余、机制僵化等原因，日本国铁经营逐渐恶化、亏损严重，同时伴随着新干线建设的巨额资本开支，日本国铁负债累累，不得不于1987 年实施民营化改革，之后迎来新生。

在快递、电商行业蓬勃发展的当下，随着订单业务量纪录不断刷新以及人口红利逐渐消失，巨头企业们为了降低成本提高效率，纷纷着手加码自动化、智能化升级，物流行业发展在科技密集型转型的道路上持续加速。