航空股投资，从紧盯疫情缓解，到预期疫情消退。疫情爆发以来到2021 年前三季度，航空股的股价与国内疫情负相关，即疫情缓解带动股价上涨。2021 年四季度以来，两者相关性变弱。2021 年底以来，全球和中国的新冠新增确诊人数都大幅增加，但是航空股股价却大幅上涨。这背后，奥密克戎的病死率大幅下降，投资者预期疫情将消退，航空业将盈利复苏。

从交运各子板块相对沪深300 的表现来看，本周（1 月17 日-1月21 日）交运板块整体继续回调。本周航运板块下跌6.13%；航空和机场板块分别上涨3.85%和7.67%；快递板块下跌0.22%，物流综合版块下跌3.85%，其他各板块则较为稳定。

1 月中旬，沿海主要港口货物吞吐量同比-0.1%，其中外贸吞吐量同比-3.9%。八大枢纽港集装箱吞吐量同比+1.3%，其中外贸/内贸箱吞吐量同比+2.3%、-1.8%。春节临近欧美港口拥堵加剧，亚洲到北美/欧地航线挂靠率较低，但订单转移需求仍在，关注沿海枢纽港口集装箱费率调整情况。

Global company car leasing (financial and operational leasing) market fell by 17.0% year-on-year (YoY) with annual sales of 6,000,605 units in 2020. It accounted for 49.5% of the total true fleet cars (company cars) registered in 2020. Corporate customers delayed their fleet renewal decision amidst the pandemic resulting in the market decline.

The prevalence of several chronic diseases worldwide and the launch of sophisticated technologies and treatments have contributed to a rapid increase in healthcare expenses. Additionally, patients nowadays expect high-quality care at an affordable cost. Thus, it has become imperative for players in the healthcare industry to reduce the cost of their healthcare services while providing high-quality care to patients. Efficient healthcare logistics services provide a remarkable opportunity for controlling healthcare costs through the implementation of best practices. Moreover, the need for an effective flow of materials and information has been evident throughout history. In the healthcare business, materials and goods are always on the move. Hospitals and healthcare centers have huge central warehouses, small parts storage units, and everything in between. In healthcare warehousing, the biggest challenges entail supervising products with due dates, optimizing item titles, and enhancing processes while ordering supplies. Proper inventory management and the smooth movement of necessary healthcare products within the hospital premises may result in considerable savings instead of frequent new product orders.

全年快递件量达1083 亿件，宏观经济承压。2021 年12 月快递行业完成快递业务量102.4 亿件（+10.7%），受电商促销虹吸效应明显，同比增速较11 月下降。1-12 月全行业累计快递业务量达1083 亿件，同比增长29.9%，增速较2020 年下降1.3pp。2021 年12 月国内社零总额同比增长1.7%，环比上升0.5%；实物商品网上零售额为9986 亿元，较2020 年同期上升1.9%。实物商品网购渗透率当月值为24.2%，网购渗透率较2020 年12 月持平。

航空：民航21 年机队增速4.5%，三大航需求恢复到19 年50%。①供给：2021 年民航26 家航司净引进165 架飞机，内地民航机队规模3827 架，民航机队增速4.5%。上市航司中三大航、春秋以及吉祥净投放82 架飞机，机队增速3.3%。中国国航全年引进32 架飞机，排名行业第一。2021 年三大航ASK 同比增长0.8%，恢复到19年的58%。12 月三大航ASK 同比-29%，恢复到19 年的48%

国家邮政局公布12 月行业运行情况，12 月快递业务量达102.5 亿件，同比增长10.7%；业务收入完成917.6 亿元，同比下降0.9%，收入数据较低系个别品牌企业规范收入口径，调整全年数据所致。扣除个别品牌企业调整因素，12 月份快递业务整体单价为9.70 元/件。2021 年，全国快递服务企业业务量累计完成1083.0 亿件，同比增长29.9%；业务收入累计完成10332.3 亿元，同比增长17.5%。

我们认为2022 年的快递行业：变局之年、破局之路。电商快递步入变局之年，核心变化在于“政策底”与“市场底”共振下，行业价格战中短期明确放缓；中长期看，产品分层带来重要新机遇。