我们认为猪周期一次探底正在进行中，期间除紧密跟踪猪价走势以外，能繁母猪与仔猪价格亦可作为有效跟踪指标。二次探底情况需要观察本轮猪价反弹情况。

SW 农林牧渔行业有41 家公司公布了业绩预告，合计14 家企业预计归母净利润实现同比正增长，占比39.5%，其中，4 家企业同比增速上限
超过100%，5 家企业同比上限增速在50%-100%之间。2021 年Q4 板块性看多生猪养殖板块，同时继续重点推荐种业板块。对于生猪板块，我们认为猪周期有望提前反转，生猪板块Q4 或迎绝地反击。

双限影响仍在持续，高炉开工率持续低位震荡。钢材库存缓慢去化，而铁矿石港口库存量有所堆积。粗钢产量环比回升，但后续仍有生产节奏放缓风险。外贸订单量增、轮胎企业盈利能力回升，共同促使汽车轮胎开工率边际上升。化学化工方面，PX 开工率、PTA 开工率出现回落，涤纶短纤装置负荷率有所上升。

The constant development in the agricultural industry led to the need for a standardized communication system for various agricultural equipment. Agricultural equipment standardization first began in Germany in 1988 under the control of Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau e.V. (VDMA), which resulted in a national standard DIN9684. The development toward agricultural standardization led to the creation of an international ISO-based standard, ISO 11783. Due to constant developments, the tractors, as well as other agricultural equipment, have become more complex. Inter-equipment communication, especially at the equipment level, has been taken into consideration while establishing the ISOBUS standard. Also, the increased emphasis on precision farming and autonomous harvesting devices needs a standardized network to deploy its benefits.

据美国农业部（USDA）发布的数据，2010-2018年全球的生猪产量在12亿头左右，中国生 猪产量最多，2010-2018年年产7亿头左右。2019年后中国区产量受非瘟影响大幅下降,与 去年相比减少近2.4亿头。

核心观点：我们认为当下生猪养殖板块最主要的矛盾其实并不是短期的 猪价走势。结合历史分析，周期投资中我们希望寻找产能反转节点和养殖 公司亏损的最大值，生猪绝对价格的阶段性见底意味着板块最悲观预期 已经充分释放，此时股价基本上也处于相对低点，继续向下的空间非常有 限，建议把握上市猪企的投资机会。

This research service focuses on protein ingredients for the meat analogs industry. •Revenue figures and forecasts are based on protein ingredient manufacturer and meat analog manufacturer sales. Revenue is reported in $ million. Geographic Segmentation: North America (the United States and Canada); Europe (all European Economic Area (EEA) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) states, including the United Kingdom and Russia); Asia-Pacific (APAC) (China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines), and South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal); Latin America, the Middle East and Africa (LAMEA) (Latin American countries including Mexico, Africa, and all Middle Eastern countries, including Turkey). Scope Geographic Coverage Global Study Period 2017–2026 Base Year 2020 Forecast Period 2021–2026 Monetary Unit US dollar Unit Shipment ‘000 tons • The study covers the following categories:

DriversRising urbanization and disposable income Rising consumer willingness to buy quality packaged food Increasing affinity for low-fat, vegan, low-salt and artisanal cheesesChanging dietary patterns Increasing number of fast-food chains, cloud kitchens and food delivery platforms globally Rising promotion of cheese as an adult protein snack Increasing awareness about the source and quality of food Higher consciousness and awareness about healthy food products, boosted by the Covid-19 pandemic