Folding carton is one of the most used eco-friendly packaging solutions due to its ability to be produced in various sizes with a small footprint, when compared to other packaging options, thus, making it feasible for use in different end-user industries. Indonesia’s growing paper production, coupled with soaring export of paper products, has helped the country become one of the world’s leading paper suppliers in the global market. According to a report from Indonesia Investments, the paper industry in the country plays a significant role in the country’s economy, accounting for 6.7% of its processing industry’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, Indonesian exports of paper and paperboard, articles of pulp, paper, and board was worth USD 4.48 billion in 2018. The Indonesian packaging industry growth is driven by the country’s expanding population and hi gh demand for low-cost, fl exible pack aging. F or instance, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2018, the total population of Indonesia increased to approximately 264.16 million inhabitants in 2018 from 252.17 million inhabitants in 2014.

未来1-2 年外废进口量逐年减少，废纸缺口将显现，国废价格有望上涨，已投产以及将于未来较早在海外投产的废纸浆、在海外直接利用外废生产的成品纸项目成本优势显著，将享受到较高的盈利。建议关注已实现原材料前瞻性布局、具有先发优势的龙头纸企，即已在废纸浆及替代纤维、海外成品纸等方面率先实现综合性布局的企业——太阳纸业(002078，买入)、理文造纸(02314，未评级)、玖龙纸业(02689，未评级)、 山鹰纸业(600567，未评级)。

我们建议投资者关注行业头部公司在存量市场中集中度提升、上下游延伸、海外布局、产品拓展等纵横向发展的新动态，以及由此带来的基本面、估值逻辑变化。给予行业“超配”评级，推荐玖龙纸业、太阳纸业。

2003 年轻工制造板块与沪深300 走势基本一致，2003 年整年沪深300 指数上升11.14%，轻工制造指数下跌17.07%，轻工板块跑输沪深300 指数28.21%，无相对收益。分板块来看，在发展期各板块均小幅上升，期间内家用轻工板块多次跑赢沪深300。在严峻期，家用轻工板块受疫情影响降幅最大，其次分别为包装印刷板块和造纸板块。衰退期后，各板块均大幅下降，直至11月才开始回升，其中家用轻工板块在8-9 月期间波动相对较小，且11 月回升较快。

关注疫情影响：复盘“非典”时期，我国家居行业整体表现稳健，家具制造业主营业务收入增速虽逐月小幅下滑，但整体保持平稳水平，家具制造业利润总额基本维持增长态势。全国家具月产量规模未见明显下降，“非典”期间，家具产量同比均保持在20%以上，家具出口影响较小，家具及零件出口额保持增长。今年对人口流动限制更大，短期零售端受客流骤减影响较大，拉长看我们认为家居行业整体受疫情影响可控。一、家居行业需求以刚性需求为主，疫情仅会使消费需求后置，对整体消费需求影响不大；二、每年一季度对家居行业是淡季，产量和营收占比相对较低。此次新冠肺炎疫情后续将持续关注企业复工及接单情况。

我们判断，新冠疫情对轻工行业短期会带来一定负面影响，但全年来看整体有限。具体方面：1）内销型家具企业短期受冲击较大，疫情结束后需求可能集中释放，建议关注欧派家居、顾家家居；2）造纸与包装领域，文化纸需求基本稳定，包装纸受到一定负面冲击，下游包装需求待逐步复工后会有所回暖，建议重点关注细分领域龙头太阳纸业、奥瑞金；3）必选消费具备较强韧性，短期受疫情影响有限，中长期保持稳健增长，在线办公直接受益，建议关注中顺洁柔、齐心集团。

定制家具：上半年受冲击较大，下半年环比修复明显。Q1 订单流失多；虽然疫情过后服务需求将出现脉冲式增加，但会受终端服务能力与产能制约。订单转化工厂营收约一个季度，Q2 工厂端收入仍受订单流失影响；预计Q2 接单恢复正常，下半年工厂端收入环比将明显修复。

造纸板块：生活用纸>包装用纸>文化用纸。文化纸方面，现阶段双胶纸需求集中在药品说明书以及政府文件印刷领域，出版社招标预计将会延迟；03年各种报刊杂志及海报宣传仍较盛行，且SARS期间有较多卫生宣传海报与报纸也对铜版纸和新闻纸的需求形成了支撑；但目前随着互联网的普及，上述现象将不复存在，文化纸价格面临较大压力；包装纸方面，药品包装盒较多采用白卡纸，快递增多也将刺激箱板瓦楞纸的需求。但疫情对出口的影响依然值得长期关注，此外包装纸整体与经济景气度密切相关，若疫情形成对经济明显冲击，亦将对整个包装纸行业形成负面影响。生活用纸方面，产品具备必选消费属性，在轻工行业中受影响相对最小，且消毒类湿巾需求大增，关注中顺洁柔。

Superabsorbent polymers are used as an absorbent, as they can absorb up to 300 times of their weight in aqueous fluids. Owing to characteristics, such as protecting the skin against drying, irritation, and infections, the largest use of superabsorbent polymers is in personal hygiene products, which include feminine hygiene products, diapers, and adult incontinence products. The governments in different countries are continuously collaborating with various NGOs, media center, and various companies, to educate people about personal hygiene management. The motive behind these initiatives is to keep the environment cleaner and safer and to avoid the spread of various diseases. According to the World Health Organization, every year, around 15 million babies are born in the world and this number is increasing. With the rising infant born rate and increasing awareness toward hygiene of a baby, the demand for superabsorbent polymers is increasing.