疫情影响下1-2 月社零显著下滑，必选消费韧性较强，子行业受疫情冲击的程度与我们之前的判断一致：家具>文化办公用品>日用品。据国家统计局数据显示，2020 年1-2 月，家具类零售总额为142 亿元，同比下滑33.5%，增速相对去年同期回落34.2pct；文化办公用品类零售总额为393亿元，同比下滑8.9%，增速相对去年同期回落17.7pct；日用品类零售总额为837 亿元，同比下滑6.6%，增速相对去年同期回落22.5pct。

我国卫生巾市场规模稳步上升，市场空间广阔。中国是全球最大的女性卫生护理用品市场，每年约有4.48 亿女性处于生理期。2011 年至2017 年，我国卫生巾市场规模从262.8 亿元提升至527.4 亿元，CAGR达12.3%。随着我国女性护理意识和消费能力不断提升，卫生巾需求端将进一步放量，预计2021 年我国卫生巾市场规模将达到786 亿元。行业集中度相比发达国家仍较低，有较大提升空间。

受疫情情绪影响，本周大盘及轻工板块下跌。本周，上证综指下跌4.85%，轻工制造指数下跌7.15%，跑输上证综指2.3%，在申万28 个版块中排名第23。轻工制造板块细分行业涨跌幅由高到低分别为：造纸Ⅱ（-5.83%）、

包装印刷Ⅱ（-6.57%）、家用轻工Ⅱ（-8.04%）。上周板块成交量下降660.15万手，周环比-10.58%。个股方面，*ST 升达（+15.25%）、景兴纸业（+6.69%）、跨境通（+6.36%）涨幅靠前；姚记科技（-16.88%）、齐心集团（-16.29%）、梦百合（-16.29%）跌幅靠前。

新版限塑令收紧，覆盖范围扩大至外卖、电商等领域。2020 年1 月19日国家发改委、生态环境部出台《进一步加强塑料污染治理的意见》，按照“禁限一批、替代循环一批、规范一批”的原则，分时间、地域、步骤有序推进限制或禁止部分塑料制品的生产、销售和使用。

白卡纸行业在消费升级推动下，过去5 年CAGR6%，20 年在限塑令推行、富阳白板纸产能退出下，需求有望持续提升，产能扩张暂缓，景气度有望提升。APP 并购博汇正在进行，若成功则行业集中度进一步提升，头部纸企议价能力有望增强，盈利能力有望持续改善。

Corrugated board packaging is a versatile and cost-efficient method to protect, preserve, and transport a wide range of products. The corrugated board’s attributes, such as light weightiness, biodegradability, and recyclability, have made it an integral component in the packaging industry.  The e-commerce industry has emerged as a significant player in recent years. Prominent e- commerce companies, such as Amazon, have been using corrugated board boxes for the principal packaging and rely on plastic packaging for individual items. The company, in 2018, mentioned that during its prime day sales alone, the company shipped 5 billion boxes in 2017.

近期家居企业在疫情影响下纷纷开启线上直播，如尚品宅配联合家居界KOL“阿爽”线上直播5 小时，欧派多轮线上直播，订单皆突破1 万单。被传统电商影响较小的家居行业，逐步在内容电商的支持下，在线上多个平台开启了直播道路。

近期进口木浆现货市场价格底部震荡，针叶浆、阔叶浆部分品牌小幅上探20-50 元/吨。浆市较淡主因：第一，港口库存仍呈累库态势，2 月中旬较上旬增加9%左右，出货速度虽较上旬有改善，但仍显迟缓；第二，中小型纸厂复工较晚，且可消耗前期库存，导致需求并未改善。价格方面，2 月21 日国内木浆价格为4040 元/吨，较上周上涨0.79%；年初至今均价4026 元/吨，同比下跌25.9%。

Folding carton is one of the most used eco-friendly packaging solutions due to its ability to be produced in various sizes with a small footprint, when compared to other packaging options, thus, making it feasible for use in different end-user industries. Indonesia’s growing paper production, coupled with soaring export of paper products, has helped the country become one of the world’s leading paper suppliers in the global market. According to a report from Indonesia Investments, the paper industry in the country plays a significant role in the country’s economy, accounting for 6.7% of its processing industry’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, Indonesian exports of paper and paperboard, articles of pulp, paper, and board was worth USD 4.48 billion in 2018. The Indonesian packaging industry growth is driven by the country’s expanding population and hi gh demand for low-cost, fl exible pack aging. F or instance, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2018, the total population of Indonesia increased to approximately 264.16 million inhabitants in 2018 from 252.17 million inhabitants in 2014.

未来1-2 年外废进口量逐年减少，废纸缺口将显现，国废价格有望上涨，已投产以及将于未来较早在海外投产的废纸浆、在海外直接利用外废生产的成品纸项目成本优势显著，将享受到较高的盈利。建议关注已实现原材料前瞻性布局、具有先发优势的龙头纸企，即已在废纸浆及替代纤维、海外成品纸等方面率先实现综合性布局的企业——太阳纸业(002078，买入)、理文造纸(02314，未评级)、玖龙纸业(02689，未评级)、 山鹰纸业(600567，未评级)。