本报告从基建行业需求端、供给端、资金端三个维度入手，分析推导当 前加大基建投资力度的必要性；系统梳理 2020 年基建政策端配套措施、 存量重大项目、未来可投项目；盘点基建投资资金来源、规模。建议布 局低估值、具备中长期成长逻辑的龙头企业。

The Asia-Pacific construction sector is the largest in the world and is increasing at a healthy rate, owing to the rising population, increase in middle-class income, and urbanization. As per the statistics of the Nation Bureau of Statistics of China, the revenues of the construction sector registered a CAGR of ~3.75% between 2013-2018 and was valued at ~CNY 40,000 million in 2018. In 2019, the country’s construction industry is expected to rise by almost ~6%. Real estate investment, which includes investments in the residential and commercial sector and office spaces, rose by ~11.6% in January-February in 2019, compared to the same period in the previous year. The robust investment in the property sector was supported by steady housing prices and an increase in property construction. However, the fallout from the trade feud with China has led to increased volatility in the financial markets and caused businesses to turn more cautious. Manufacturing activity has pulled back considerably, and it is likely to either stall or contract during the first part of the year. Forecast for economic growth has scaled back as businesses have turned more cautious. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest and one of the fastest-growing markets. With annual population growth at about ~4 million, construction may remain a key economic enabler.

China’s cement industry is characterised by relatively low concentration and severe overcapacity. In 2018, China had about 3,500 cement enterprises. However, restrictions on adding new cement capacity have recently pushed cement manufacturers to expand their production through M&As. The economic imbalance between the coastal and inland parts of China is the reason for the unequal performance of cement producers from different regions. Most of them are located in the regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Southwest China.

从 1-4 月数据来看，全国累计水泥产量 5.21 亿吨，同口径同比下滑 14.4%，降幅环 比收窄 9.5 个百分点，全口径同比下滑 14.0%，增速环比收窄 9.7 个百分点。我们按照 4 月水泥产量全口径增速年化后测算，如果产量增速后续丌能继续提升，全年水泥产量无 法转正；根据我们的测算，如果从 5 月开始，每月平均全口径增速 达到 6%，全年水泥 累计产量增速可转正，月平均增速达到 7%，全年水泥累计产量增速约 1.2%；尽管全年 量的增长转正压力较大，但如果单月能保持在 5%以上的产量增长，对价格的稳定无疑是 坚强的支撑。

受益于地产和基建需求的稳定增长，建材行业上市公司 2019 年营收净利润增 速整体表现优异，其他材料板块现金流状况有所改善，2020Q1 新冠疫情对行 业有阶段性影响，但看好后续强劲复苏。

十八大以来，新一轮土改焦点聚集在“三块地”：农村土地、集体经营性建 设用地和宅基地。围绕“三块地”涉及改革包括“农村土地征收、集体经营 性建设用地入市、宅基地制度改革”三个方面，其中非农建设用地不再必须 国有、宅基地“三权分置”管理制度、农村集体经营性建设用地入市是改革 的方向与重点。

地产和基建投资明显修复。据国家统计局数据，2020 年 1-4 月全国固定资产投资同比增速-10.3%，降幅较一季 度和 1-2 月分别收窄 5.8 个和 14.2 个百分点，固定资产投资继续修复，其中结构上是基建地产引导，基建投资 4 月单月增速回升转正至 2.3%，广义基建投资 4 月单月增速回升转正至 4.8%，引领作用明显；地产投资 4 月 单月增长 7%，实现超预期增长。2020 年 1-4 月商品房销售面积同比增速-19.3%，降幅环比 1-3 月收窄 7.0%； 4 月单月增速为-2.1%，降幅环比 3 月收窄 12.0%，我们推测受到疫情后回补效应的影响。2020 年 1-4 月商品 房新开工面积同比增速-18.4%，降幅环比 1-3 月收窄 8.8%；4 月单月增速为-1.3%，降幅环比 3 月收窄 9.2%。 1-4 月施工和竣工环比变化不大，1-4 月施工增幅和竣工降幅均环比收窄，施工回落、竣工回升趋势延续。

《指导意见》印发标志新一轮西部大开发顶层规划正式形成。此次《指导意 见》正式印发是继 2019 年 3 月深改委会议通过《关于新时代推进西部大开 发形成新格局的指导意见》后政策层面的重大进展。深改委会议通过后，国 家发改委根据会议精神，对《指导意见》作进一步修改完善，按程序报批后 印发，标志着新一轮西部大开发的顶层规划已经正式形成，一系列政策措施 后续有望陆续落地。

水泥景气度有望保持高位。预计 20 年净增点火熟料产能 2045 万吨， YoY+1.12%，西南和东北地区相对受冲击较大。我们预计 2020 年水泥需求 24.0 亿吨，YoY+2.2%。受疫情导致需求滞后影响，今年南方旺季有望持续至 6 月份，北方地区 5 月份有望进入涨价旺季。水泥集中度逐渐进入平台期，19 年 CR10 56.6%，格局相对稳定。对比美国，长期集中度有望进一步提升。