国内疫情有所反复，各省市纷纷倡导就地过年，将催化春节前后居家消费场景，增加速冻食品、休闲食品、复调等消费需求。疫情风险发酵或对连锁小业态有短期的负面影响，但优质龙头有望进一步逆势拿店，占据优质点位，长期向好。站在当下时点，展望后续建议关注：第一，受益于居家消费场景的板块，包括速冻板块、休闲食品板块、烘焙原料等；第二，疫情期间逆势拓张，长期向好的连锁业态，如卤制品板块；第三，看前期因为短期业绩扰动，有充分调整的相关标的，当前估值水平较低，且随着股权激励等落地，员工和高管积极性充沛；第四，长期来看，坚守成长性和确定性兼备的优质标的，看长可获得可观稳定收益，建议精选各子行业龙头。

本周我们组织线上策略会，邀请多家上市公司及渠道经销商进行交流，针对白酒、啤酒、乳制品、调味品等多品类的备货、动销、库存情况进行讨论，白酒我们邀请四川、河南、江苏、安徽、湖南等主要市场中具有代表性的经销商对当前销售情况进行分析。经过此次线上交流，对食饮板块春节旺季销售情况有全局性、系统性把握，我们整体认为：21 年的春节不同于20 年，不会简单重复彼时行情，消费者心态稳定和补偿性消费是旺季仍旺的前提，业绩弹性和景气度延续仍然看得到。疫情对于不同品类、区域、价格带的影响不同，行情也应当由板块的β 向优秀个股的α 转变。

据中国产业信息网，国内生鲜约5 万亿规模，从产业链角度可分为生产端、流通端、消费端三段，本身兼具产品、品牌、渠道价值，即消费者最终支付价格应包括： 1）满足生活必需品需求的产品价值；2）基于品牌认知度的品牌溢价；3）基于现有渠道满足终端“多快好省”需求而产生的渠道替换成本。国内生鲜产业链现状在于，在上下游分散、中游基础设施、供应链解决方案发展不足前提下，各级渠道商不愿横向或纵向延伸，消费者最终买单花费金额较高，而上游产业链环节拥有者均不赚钱（以一斤在上海销售的陕西苹果为例，据草根数据估算，其流通成本1.7 倍于生产端价格，且其中约68%为包含渠道利润、损耗在内的可变成本）；高额流通成本映射产业链痛点、并加剧痛点形成，存在严重效率问题。

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) is a type of data collection method, using low-power radio waves to transmit and receive information between tags and readers. In comparison to using barcode scanning for data collection, RFID does not require user-initiated, line-of-sight actions and can read and write to hundreds of tags within a reading area at the same time. Food safety regulations and the need for precise traceability makes RFID's association with the food and beverage industry exceptional. The use of RFID in food refers to companies conducting processes of manufacturing, packaging, and food storage. Such industries operate with a specific and personalized collection of food safety protocols and procedures, requiring a range of critical data points relating to each food product being produced. Relevant data include suggested dates of use, proper labeling, processing of food, product weight, and registration conditions, such as temperature and humidity.

Savory ingredients are flavor enhancers, which alter the flavors of food items during food processing to improve the quality and shelf life of food products. They are used as food additives, which help in enhancing the aroma, flavor, and taste of food products. For the purpose of analysis, the report segments the global savory ingredient market in accordance with source, type, application, and region. The report highlights the natural and synthetic sources from which the savory ingredients are extracted. In addition, it outlines the details about various types of savory ingredients available in the market, which include yeast extract, starch, hydrolyzed vegetable protein, hydrolyzed animal protein, nucleotides, monosodium glutamate, and others. It further provides information about applications such as ready meals, snacks, feed, and others. In addition, it covers the information regarding the revenue generated through savory ingredient across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

上周A 股保持平稳，上证指数收于3566.38 点，周变动-0.10%。食品饮料板块周变动-5.05%，表现弱于上证指数4.94个百分点，位居申万一级行业分类第24 位。

赤藓糖醇所处的甜味剂产业赛道优质，前景可期。“甜”是人类永远戒不掉的味觉追求，随着人类对健康的追求和食品质量的要求不断提升，低糖替代化成为食品行业主流。具有无糖无热量、健康安全等优势的三氯蔗糖和赤藓糖醇已在市场中得到验证，未来有望伴随零糖零脂消费理念普及而快速发展。

白m酒ary方] 面，大部分酒企十四五规划先后披露，龙头酒企对未来规划稳中求进，对行业发展持积极态度，我们认为行业中长期格局向好，消费升级趋势延续，龙头酒企强者恒强。

2020 年完美收官，食品饮料涨幅领跑市场，其他酒类表现优异。2020 年食品饮料指数上涨 85.3%，跑赢沪深 300，在一级子行业中排名第三，仅次于休闲服务与电气设备。往 2021 年展望，大背景环境是经济活动仍在缓慢复苏，多数子行业应处于回暖改善过程，基本面持续向上。我们选取 2021 年食品饮料交易策略两条主线：一是坚守行业龙头长期持有，如五粮液、贵州茅台、山西汾酒、海天味业、伊利股份等；二是寻找行业低估值同期长期成长逻辑持续的股票，可能短期获得超额收益，如中炬高新、煌上煌、嘉必优等。此外，考虑到部分企业处于基本面底部，未来具有改善预期，可重点关注恒顺醋业、涪陵榨菜、洋河股份等。

国家统计局公布2020 年12 月社会消费品零售额数据。12 月社零总额同比增速4.6%，增速环比下降0.4pct，其中餐饮、粮油食品环比小幅提升，烟酒环比提升幅度较大，饮料环比小幅回落。