当前钢厂产量维持高位，表观消费较去年显著偏强，继续关注地产新政策对下游需求释放节奏的影响以及冬储备库情况，中长期来看，压减粗钢产量政策叠加地产、基建、汽车等行业利好政策不断出台，供需形势有望逐步改善，随着铁矿等原料供给逐步宽松，钢厂盈利或逐步反弹，当前钢铁板块处于估值和供需结构底部状态，继续推荐兼具技术壁垒与高成长特性的甬金股份，受益于油气、核电景气周期的久立特材，受益于基建投资相关城市管网与水利建设的新兴铸管；建议关注受益于煤电景气周期的盛德鑫泰、常宝股份，低估值、具有显著区位优势的新钢股份与华菱钢铁，行业龙头宝钢股份。

布线过程：由切片机自动排线系统将长度约80-200km、直径36um及以上的金刚线由放线辊放入切割区域，后均匀、 精准排布于2根主辊，布置成超过3000根，间距低于235um的金刚线网并引出。 切割过程：金刚线网的线速度在4秒内从静止状态加速至2400米/分钟，随后持续运行30秒后，在4秒内从2400米/分钟 减速至0米/分钟；随后反向加速至2400米/分钟，持续运行30秒后，再减速至0米/分钟。

短期来看，行业进入传统需求旺季，消费边际改善，而钢厂盈利微薄，供给 增量有限。随着地产、基建刺激政策的不断推出，市场情绪改善，相对较低 的库存压力下，钢材价格或有反弹空间。目前来看，控产量情况将直接决定 产业链利润分配情况，若限产政策得到有力执行，钢厂利润有望进一步改善。

本文对 13 家国内重点钢铁集团 8-9 月经营情况进行了跟踪，结果显示：跟踪 企业预计钢铁市场整体需求 9 月开始得到改善，8 月大钢企产量出现季节性恢 复向上，企业预期未来铁矿采购价格持续下降。1）需求端，调研显示 9 月份 开始企业预计需求开始全面改善。随着宏观稳增长政策持续加码，所跟踪大部 分企业预期后续汽车行业和造船行业用钢需求有望持续上升。2）跟踪数据显示1，大型钢铁集团 8 月份产量出现季节性恢复向上，且预计产能利用率有所提 高。随着原料成本的明显下移，部分钢材生产利润扭亏为盈。预计 9 月产量继 续恢复。3）原材料方面，澳大利亚铁矿石产量的恢复和俄罗斯煤炭商产能对 亚洲的转移，导致企业对于未来 3 个月 62%澳洲进口粉矿进口价格区间的预测 下降到 86.54-121.92 美元/吨。

This data equals output data for the following ISIC Rev. 4 code: 2410 Manufacture of Basic Iron and Steel This class includes: Operation of blast furnaces, steel converters, rolling and finishing mills Production of pig iron and spiegeleisen in pigs, blocks or other primary forms Production of ferro-alloys Production of ferrous products by direct reduction of iron and other spongy ferrous products Production of iron of exceptional purity by electrolysis or other chemical processes Production of granular iron and iron powder Production of steel in ingots or other primary forms Remelting of scrap ingots of iron or steel Production of semi-finished products of steel Manufacture of hot-rolled and cold-rolled flat-rolled products of steel Manufacture of hot-rolled bars and rods of steel Manufacture of hot-rolled open sections of steel Manufacture of steel bars and solid sections of steel by cold drawing, grinding or turning Manufacture of open sections by progressive cold forming on a roll mill or folding on a press of flat-rolled products of steel Manufacture of wire of steel by cold drawing or stretching Manufacture of sheet piling of steel and welded open sections of steel Manufacture of railway track materials (unassembled rails) of steel Manufacture of seamless tubes, pipes and hollow profiles of steel, by hot rolling, hot extrusion or hot drawing, or by cold drawing or cold rolling Manufacture of welded tubes and pipes of steel, by cold or hot forming and welding, delivered as welded or further processed by cold drawing or cold rolling or manufactured by hot forming, welding and reducing Manufacture of tube fittings of steel, such as: Flat flanges and flanges with forged collars Butt-welded fittings

发债钢企债务规模持续增长。截至2022 年6 月末（下同），发债钢企有息负债总规模为1.7 万亿，较2021 年末增长10%，较全面供给侧改革前的2015 年大幅增长了约41%，主要源于大型钢企的资产合并与重组。供给侧改革以来，钢企期限结构、偿债能力均以改善为主。

Steel sector is both the backbone of Indian economy as well as a growth promising sector. The growth of the sector is well supported by the availability od raw material such as iron ore and cost effective labour in the country. The government has always realized the importance of the sector for manufacturing sector growth and the overall GDP growth and therefore, initiated various schemes and policies for the development of steel sector along with promoting public private partnership. Since the last couple of the decades, the sector has been moving towards modernizing itself with plants upgradation, adoption of advanced technology and building of state-of-the-art mills. Leveraging on the high demand with resurging economy, the India has witnessed continuous rise in the steel production, which has made India a second largest crude steel producer of the world (since 2018).

2022年6月，世界钢铁工业协会和国际回收局相继发布《世界钢铁统计数据2022》和《全球钢铁循环统计数据2017-2021》。本刊编辑部梳理归纳2021年全球主要国家钢铁生产、废钢使用以及进出口情况。

硅锰、硅铁都是炼钢行业中的原料，其用量及成本占比虽然不大，但在炼钢中却不可或缺。同时，二者也均为郑商所上市交易的期货品种（注：硅锰在郑商所中的交易品种名称为锰硅），并且在郑商所存在二者的价差套利指令。由于市场格局发生改变，硅锰、硅铁价格已由2021年前的硅锰高于硅铁转变为硅锰低于硅铁。虽然市场上对铁合金价格分析的文章较多，但对硅锰、硅铁的价差进行分析的文章较少。本文拟对硅锰、硅铁的价差及演变逻辑进行分析，并对二者未来的价差运行进行展望。

上半年房地产数据“泼冷水”，钢价下行，钢铁行业感觉格外“冷”。市场人士强调，下半年钢铁行业要做好过紧日子的思想准备，要积极利用期货工具对冲市场风险，利用期现点价、基差贸易来升级销售模式，不要建立太高库存，要确保现金流安全和稳定，努力度过“寒冬期”。上半年钢价下行导致钢铁行业感觉格外“冷”，尤其是房地产数据“泼冷水”，部分房企出现债务危机累及钢铁行业。近期上市钢企纷纷亮出2022年上半年“成绩单”，也体现出钢铁行业的困境。