2019 年前11 月，服装零售累计同比+3.0%，呈弱复苏态势，品牌端强化存货及应收管控。制造端订单偏弱，棉价下行进一步拖累盈利表现，产业链加快库存去化。弱景气下板块行情偏弱，年初至今累计涨幅为4.7%，估值及配置均处低位。

前 11 月纺织服装及商贸零售表现排名靠后。SW 纺织服装及商贸零售估值接近行业历史低位。纺服零售行情表现主要源于消费增速放缓，今年来我国社零增速已由 2017 年的 10.2%，降至 2018年的近 9%，再到 2019 年前 11 月的 8%，消费增速随经济增速放缓而放缓。

The apparel industry is one of the oldest and largest export industries in the world. It is also one of the fastest growing global industries, as most developing nations manufacture textiles for the international textile and apparel market. Regenerated cellulose is majorly used in the manufacturing of textiles and apparels, especially through its derivative, viscose staple fiber.  The textile industry is an ever-growing market with China, United States, European Union, and India being the major contributors. China, alone, accounts for approximately 1/4th of the global textile industry. China is the largest clothing producer in the world and has the largest production capacity for textile products consisting of cotton, manmade fibers, and silk.

Ease of mobility, innovation in functionality and style, and the demand for ergonomically designed carriers are the key reasons for the popularity of the baby carriers around the world. Unlike prams and strollers, baby carriers are preferred, as they increase the physical and psychological connection between the infant and the parent. Apart from providing ease of mobility and hands-free convenience, baby carriers have reduced the number of products that need to be carried while parents are out with their babies, majorly driving the demand for baby carriers. The industry’s growth has also been supported by an increasing number of certified babywearing consultants (people who are trained to teach others about the safe and comfortable use of baby carriers) and organizations, like Babywearing International, that seek to educate parents and other caregivers about how to use wraps and slings.

1-11 月化妆品社零额同比增长 12.7%，维持高景气度，且增速位居所有消费品类前列；2）竞争格局：国际中高端品牌借形象重塑及电商布局实现快速增长。本土大众品牌表现分化，积极拥抱新渠道和营销模式的新锐品牌和转型传统品牌表现优异。3）基本面及行情复盘：板块基本面增速优异但内部公司分化明显，珀莱雅和丸美等具备一定差异化产品实力且在渠道布局切换下表现突出；在上述品牌基本面支撑以及多个新股上市提振下，板块大幅跑赢大盘。

2019 年以来纺织服装行业指数（SW）的绝对收益率为 4.71%，沪深300 为 26.70%。分板块看，纺织制造板块绝对收益率为 4.09%，服装家纺板块为 4.88%。

2019年 11 月淘宝服装类销售额均有所增长，其中女装主要是受价格提振，男装、童装、运动、家纺由销量带动增长。由于“双 11”的影响，消费者集中在 11 月消费，各子行业的增长幅度均达到全年最大，运动行业仍然是服装行业的最佳赛道。 

The disposable innerwear is a widely used product throughout the globe. The major consumers of these products include the healthcare and spa & salon industries. In addition, global economic growth has played a vital role in fueling the demand and consumption in this market. The market growth depends on several factors such as rise in consumer spending potential, urban development, and more focus on hygiene. Apart from the growth of the global disposable innerwear market, the growth of several industries such salon & spa, healthcare, and travel, among others, can be witnessed in recent years. Moreover, these industries are the major consumers of disposable innerwear. However, the market is witnessing a high degree of vendor fragmentation as well as unorganized players in developing nations.

近年来消费品的各个领域线上流量和销售日益向传统头部企业集中，因此细分领域行业龙头呈现出超越行业和经济的增长，我们继续看好在电商商领域表现优异的个股： 安踏体育(02020，买入)、李宁(02331，买入)、 波司登(03998，买入)、珀莱雅(603605，买入)和森马服饰(002563，买入)，建议关注水星家纺(603365，增持)、丸美股份(603983，未评级)和周大生(002867，增持)

展望2020 年我们认为，行业整体有望在促销费政策等落地下逐步企稳，但分化依旧是主线：一是，体育及童装两大赛道景气度仍有较大支撑，同时其中的竞争格局优化下龙头有望实现快速成长；二是，低线市场仍将是目前国内渠道端主要挖潜的空间所在，依托电商新营销新渠道下将更有效的帮助品牌实现下沉增量客群获取；三是，积累了较深厚内功，具有较强经营韧性的等龙头公司，在行业回暖预期下，仍具较大业绩和估值弹性。综合考虑我们建议重点关注：森马服饰、李宁、比音勒芬、南极电商、开润股份、健盛集团等。