2020 年行业回顾：（1）纺织制造：疫情影响下，防疫产品出口经历高景气，常规纺织品与服装订单逐步走出低谷。RCEP 签署有望强化国内上游环节竞争力，同时加快产业链中下游向东南亚扩张转移。（2）品牌服饰及时尚消费：三季度明确向上拐点，全年前低后高奠定复苏态势。疫情加速了品牌企业向线上转型提质的步伐，线下则加快了渠道的优化迭代，提升单店质量成为普遍关注的重点。特殊阶段全行业期间费用得到了有效管控，龙头公司净利润在二季度开始显现弹性。

运动板块：板块环比明显提速，FILA、Lululemon 和Nike 相对领先。2020 年11月，我们跟踪的安踏（不包括FILA）、李宁、FILA、特步、探路者、Nike、Adidas、

Lululemon 在天猫店铺的销售额分别10.49 亿、10.79 亿、10.24 亿、3.54 亿、0.52亿、27.17 亿、24.37 亿、2.03 亿，分别同比增长29%、43%、59%、14%、3%、45%、31%、49%。2020 年1-11 月，我们跟踪的安踏（不包括FILA）、李宁、FILA、特步、探路者、Nike、Adidas、Lululemon 在天猫店铺的销售额分别为30.40 亿、29.40 亿、25.62 亿、11.04 亿、1.28 亿、69.40 亿、70.63 亿、8.19 亿。分别同比增长31%、31%、68%、2%、5%、45%、50%、97%。

短期我们判断2020Q4-2021 年品牌服饰销售趋势向好：当下旺季伊始，入冬提前+春节后置拉长服装销售旺季。10 月服装纺织品类/珠宝类社零当月值分别同比增长12.2%/6.7%，均明显好于同期社零总额增速4.3%，同时较9 月呈加速趋势。行业渠道库存压力处于环比改善通道。长期消费需求分化，新生消费力量崛起。1）国内装消费大环境良好稳定，消费者信心向上姿态明确，需求表现分化，消费升级趋势+高性价比需求并存。2）新生代流量入场刺激消费，低线城市崛起，2010-2018 年三四线城市中，年可支配收入14~30 万元的家庭数量CAGR高达38%（同期一二线城市23%），成为消费生力军。3）民族品牌迎来新机遇，高端消费意愿自海外回流。

中国服装消费增速由2010年以前每年20%以上的增长，逐步下降至每年单位数增长；但中国市场逐步超越美国，成为全球最大的服装消费市场。

Moreover, protective clothing & equipment is an essential element of overall worker safety control strategy, primarily in construction, chemical, mining, oil & gas, healthcare, and other industries. Industrial protective clothing & equipment are classified based on the type and size of infectious particles that they can filter. The global market for industrial protective clothing & equipment is wide, with multiple players delivering a diverse range of protection goods. The market for protective clothing & equipment products is highly competitive, with participants ranging in size from small businesses focusing on a single type of PPE to several large multinational corporations, that produce and supply many types of highly developed protective products.

Medical gowns are personal protective equipment used to protect both HCPs and the patients from infection or illness when they come in contact with potentially infectious liquid and solid material in the healthcare settings. These gowns are also used to prevent the wearer from transferring microorganisms that could harm vulnerable patients, such as patients with weakened immune systems. Medical gowns are an essential element of infection-control strategy, primarily in healthcare facilities. The three major types of medical gowns, which are generally used to prevent respiratory infection, include surgical gowns, patient gowns, and nonsurgical gowns. All the types of medical gowns are classified based on the desired level of protection that they can provide.

品牌服饰：十一黄金周及换季驱动下，10 月纺服社零总额双位数增长1-10 月社会消费品零售总额同比下滑5.9%，降幅环比收窄1.3PCTs；纺服品类零售额同比下滑9.7%，降幅环比收窄2.7PCTs。10 月单月看，在冷冬预期叠加十一黄金周的驱动下，服装增速环比+3.9PCTs 至+12.2%，需求环比持续改善。上市公司层面亦呈现同样趋势，如终端恢复靓眼的太平鸟10 月终端仍延续较高增速，Q3 单季度零售端转正的海澜之家线下预计实现双位数增长。

行情回顾：全周沪深300 指数下跌0.59%，创业板指数下跌0.96%，纺织服装行业指数上涨0.16%，表现强于沪深300 和创业板指数，其中纺织制造板块上涨0.2%，品牌服饰板块上涨0.14%。个股方面，我们覆盖的朗姿股份、探路者和安正时尚等获得了正收益。

国庆长假助力消费活力释放，可选消费增速持续复苏。消费线上化趋势延续，头部电商平台双11 继续大幅增长。展望未来，Q4 为传统消费旺季，可选消费复苏有望延续，建议积极关注估值较低的纺织服装龙头森马服饰、波司登、南极电商、罗莱生活、富安娜、健盛集团，继续关注电商推升业绩的国内化妆品公司珀莱雅、上海家化等。