我国服装消费一直处在升级过程中，历经五个阶段。消费升级并非一个全新的概念，而是遍布在整个服装消费的发展历程中，与当时的经济基础、文化背景、宣传媒介、销售渠道等紧密相连。通过对我国服装产业发展历程进行梳理，总结出我国服装消费大致经历了五个阶段：1）“供给匮乏”阶段，追求服装款型和搭配；2）“标牌消费”阶段，品牌认知初体验；3）“供给爆发”阶段，明星+电视广告+代理为王时代；4）“性价比消费”阶段，快时尚、淘品牌快速成长；5）2015年至今的“去中心化”时代，自媒体流量红利到来。

17 年以来行业指数累计涨跌排名靠后（跑输沪深 300），服装家纺表现好于纺织制造；17 年 3 月上半月行业指数涨跌排名靠后（跑赢沪深300），纺织制造表现好于服装家纺；17 年 3 月上半月纺织服装类 A 股上涨居多，品牌类维格娜丝/希努尔/歌力思涨幅靠前，制造类浔兴股份/汉麻产业涨幅靠前。H 股品牌类 17 年 3 月上半月下跌居多（拉夏贝尔/宝姿/卡撒天娇领涨，达芙妮/思捷环球/亨得利领跌），制造类上涨居多（申洲/互太/魏桥/裕元/九兴领涨，仅天虹上涨）。

消费复苏背景下，纺织服装龙头成消费品板块最后洼地。1）食品饮料、家用电器、医药生物、商贸零售、社会服务、轻工制造板块龙头企业 2017 年以来均取得优异表现，纺织服装行业龙头仍未有显著表现。2) 纺织服装板块的龙头领涨行情蓄势待发。2017 年以来，申万纺织服装指数下跌了 1.14%，森马服饰受到减持和 2016 年业绩低于预期影响下跌 10.28%，海澜之家下跌 2.80%，龙头领涨行情还未启动，而南极电商累计涨幅 8.01%，高于行业水平。与消费领域的其他三个板块相比，除南极电商外其他龙头公司行情暂未启动，蓄势待发。

Protective clothing refers to garments and other equipment that are designed for protecting the wearer from punitive environmental hazards that may cause injuries or death. These products are majorly used due to their performance and efficient characteristics instead of their aesthetic or decorative features.

下游服饰需求弱复苏有望带动上游纺织行业回暖、增加棉花需求，考虑到应季棉花供需缺口及有限的国储棉库存，棉花价格中长期趋于上涨；储备棉轮出已历时一周、后 3 天出现小幅流拍，考虑到潜在轮出数量大于实现供需缺口、且纺企对于储备棉竞拍处于观望态势，后续出现流拍概率较大，棉价短期走势取决于抛储棉花质量、抛储节奏及出库效率等。政府加大环保监管力度、强制落后产能出清，印染行业供需状况由整体供过于求向中高端产能结构性短缺转变，行业景气度向上；环保支出增加提升企业营运成本、龙头步入前期环保投资回收期，行业格局加速重构。

标准品受益消费升级，无品牌升级为“有品牌”。随着居民可支配收入提高与消费升级，很多服装消费就由无品牌转向有品牌的升级过程。线上：之前电商平台上主要是杂牌为主，而南极电商在淘宝天猫上做出了自己的品牌，现在定位为国民品牌；又如线下的海澜之家和都市丽人，它们也是抓住了从无品牌到有品牌的升级过程，所以过去几年增长也较快。

The use of swimwear is relatively high among the 15 to 34-year-old population segment as this age group is more open to experimenting with different types of exercises for personal fitness, including swimming. Over the next five years, an increased emphasis on marketing initiatives is expected, targeting mainly this age group, with an increased focus on social media platforms. For instance, marketing campaigns such as "Fueled by Water", "Get the Summer Feeling", and "#GetSpeedFit" from Speedo International; and "Find Your Greatness" from Perry Ellis International for Nike Swim brand were targeted to the youth and middle-age population segment. Globally, Nike has more than 50 million followers, and Adidas
has more than 20 million followers on Facebook, where total engagements stand at more than 50,000 for Nike and over 200,000 for Adidas. Sponsoring sporting teams, players, and athletes is a key strategy adopted by apparel manufacturers to boost their presence in the market. Almost all major sporting goods manufacturers such as Nike, Adidas, and Puma sponsor popular football, basketball, baseball, swimming, tennis, and cricket players and athletes.For instance, in June 2016, the Arena Water Instinct brand from Arena Italia announced that it has been designated as the Official Swim Sponsor of the 2016 and 2017 IRONMAN European Series. Developed countries such as the US and the UK have relatively mature markets for swimwear. While product innovations and subsequent product launches are very common in these markets, developing countries like China, Brazil, and India are also gaining the focus of key players in recent times. For instance, in 2015, Speedo International expanded its business in both Brazil and China.

继续推荐优质次新股开润股份及太平鸟。本周新增重点推荐毛纺行业， 主要受益于羊毛涨价，标的推荐“港澳组合”:新澳股份、鹿港文化等。 本周重点推荐开润股份/新澳股份/鹿港文化/太平鸟/南极电商/凯撒文化。  新增推荐毛纺行业。1）羊毛价格攀升：澳洲羊毛价格 17 年 1 月达六 年以来高点，未来持续减产和下游需求弱复苏将不断推升羊毛制品价 格。2）重点推荐“港澳组合”：新澳股份及鹿港文化。

健身产业容量巨大，保持稳定增长，对标海外市场，未来发展空间可期。1）我国健身行业空间达 300 亿元规模。目前国内成规模的健身俱乐部数量约 1 万家，小型健身工作室超2 万家。考虑到私教课程客单价更高以及健身行业的上下游， 行业实际空间将达到甚至超过 500 亿。2015 年我国健身市场规模增长 14%，健身俱乐部数量增长 20%，国家职业资格持证教练数量增长 77%。2）对标中美市场，健身行业有 4 倍以上发展空间。中国健身持卡人约 1500 万，不足美国的1/4；市场容量 300 亿元，仅为美国的 1/6；中国俱乐部会员渗透率只有 1%，远低于美国的 22%，供需两端均存在一定的缺口。3）国内俱乐部盈利模式单一，未来结构将更加多元化。我国健身行业中会籍+私教收入占比超 90%，而在国外食品、补剂、减肥消费、服装器材等合计收入占比超 70%，是我国俱乐部未来发展的方向。