2021 年1 月20 日-2021 年2 月19 日，沪深300 上涨5.65%，汽车及零部件板块上涨5.12%，跑输大盘0.53个百分点。其中，乘用车子行业上涨6.27%；商用车子行业上涨12.62%；汽车零部件子行业上涨3.78%；汽车经销服务子行业下跌0.96%。申万汽车板块涨幅位于28 个申万一级行业第10 位，位于中游。

新能源汽车：进入产品驱动市场，国内一月产销同比高增。1 月国内新能源汽车产销同比延续高增长，其中产量为19.4 万辆，同比上涨285.8%，环比下降17.8%；销量达16.9 万辆，同比大幅上涨238.5%，环比下降27.8%。下半年疫情之后，随着国内经济形势进一步好转，叠加新能源车下乡为代表的一系列政策支持，中国新能源车产销同比延续高增长，整体产业延续较好发展趋势。分车型来看，宏光MINI11 月销量继续稳居第一，特斯拉位居次席；比亚迪汉EV 系列销量达9298 辆。目前，在中国市场，包括合资车企、自主品牌、新势力和外资车企仍在持续推出优质车型，考虑到大众、奔驰和通用为首的传统车企平台化车型持续布局、造车新势力颠覆传统的产品驱动力持续发酵和特斯拉Model Y 等产品在未来的潜在爆款效应。我们预计中国今年销量200 万辆；2025 年达631 万辆，5 年CAGR 达36%。

A surge in the number of autonomous vehicles can be witnessed in recent years. The need to increase drivers’ safety and ease their driving experience has resulted in an increased number of autonomous vehicles. These vehicles are integrated with multiple sensors and data processors, such as cameras, to perform driver-assisted features. Therefore, an increase in the number of autonomous vehicles ultimately drives the adoption of high precision asphere lens in the cameras used in those vehicles. The usage of fully autonomous vehicles allows the drivers to utilize their journey time in performing additional activities like working, accessing entertainment, and thereby increasing the drivers’ comfort. Also, using fully autonomous cars may solve the industry’s manpower shortage. For instance, according to American Trucking Associations, the U.S. fell short of 48,000 truck drivers in 2016, and this number can grow up to 170,000 in the next ten years. With the help of driverless trucks, this shortage of labor can be slowed. The addition of self-driven vehicle fleet may lead to innovative modes of traveling/transporting. Users may use cars based on pay-per-use models, including car-pooling, cab sharing, and peer-to-peer car rentals. These factors are expected to reduce vehicle owners’ efforts and will, therefore, contribute to the growth in the demand for autonomous vehicles. Thus, given the advantages of autonomous vehicles, an upward-facing trend is anticipated in the coming years that would certainly increase the demand and consumption of the aspherical lens as they provide improved accuracy of the focal point, greater focal length range, and sharper and clearer image formation.

欧洲2020 年新能源汽车销量有望超彼时市场预期，将成为全球最大新能源汽车消费市场，销量达到130 万辆左右，渗透率10.42%，且不排除全年销量超130 万辆的可能性。上述观点及相关预测数据已经获得验证，EV sales 数据显示，2020 年欧洲新能源汽车销量增长142.4%至136.71 万辆，渗透率11.41%。展望2021 年，我们保守预计欧洲市场新能源汽车销量或超200 万辆，同比增长46%左右，渗透率16%左右。