Packaging has become an integral part in the supply chain of any industry. There is a growing demand for packaging in sectors such as food and beverages, agriculture, healthcare, and construction. This has led to the introduction of innovative packaging materials and designs by vendors. Over the past two decades, the packaging industry has been experiencing a huge transformation in terms of innovation and design. From the use of simple packaging materials like glass, metal, and paper, the industry has come a long way to the use of different plastic polymers such as PE, PET, EVOH, LDPE, and HDPE. In addition, there have been a lot of changes in the types of packaging like the introduction of bag-in-boxes, pouches, and paper bags.

首推兼具内生增长和涨价弹性的晨鸣纸业（16和17年净利20.64亿和25亿+，一季度 高增长确定，目前市值206亿元）、山鹰纸业（吨利维持高位带来业绩弹性，中长期 看好公司强劲的内生增长能力和行业集中度提升。公司350wt箱板瓦楞产能和10亿平 包装产能，16-18年预计净利CAGR为78%，一季报有望超预期）、太阳纸业（17年 80万吨包装纸产能贡献业绩增量，铜版纸和溶解浆盈利提升值得期待；18年20万吨特 种纸/老挝溶解浆/80万吨箱板纸持续落地，预计17-18年净利分别为15亿元和18亿元

The trend of lighter corrugated containerboard packaging in the retail sector plays a significant role in determining the demand for containerboard shipment.The increased demand for corrugated boxes from the food and beverage industry to package fresh fruit and vegetables and dairy products is expected to increase the shipment volume in the future.Companies are trying to innovate their packaging designs to increase the sales of corrugated boxes, which are used for secondary packaging. So, companies are using digital printing to make boxes more appealing. It provides an opportunity to print high-quality images on the boxes and present their products at the point of sale. They are also focusing on recycling products to further production, which propels the sales of containerboard products.

据浆纸产品理事会发布的数据：2017 年 1 月份，北美新闻纸厂有效开工率 87%。本月，北美新闻纸总出运量约为 26 万吨，较上月减少 0.9 万吨，同比大幅下降了 10.9%。需求方面，1 月份北美本土市场对新闻纸的需求量约为 21.9 万吨，同比下降12.6%；加拿大市场需求量 4.1 万吨，同比下降 0.5%。

2月份海外文化纸市场报价情况为：欧洲市场涂布化学浆纸报价稳定，未涂布化学浆纸报价开始上涨，机械浆纸报价继续小幅下降；北美市场文化纸报价多数下降，其中涂布化学浆纸勉强稳定，未涂布化学浆纸下降20美元/短吨(1短吨=0.9吨)，机械浆纸多数下降5-10美元/短吨；日本和台湾等亚洲市场纷纷宣布将于3-4月提高售价；南美市场已经开始涨价。

令人惊奇的中国纸浆市场的需求继续保持旺盛，由此给全球浆市所形成的驱动力，继续推动着北美和欧洲纸浆市场的公告价格和现货价格上涨。外加近来美国南部南方松浆厂、加拿大 NBSK 浆厂和巴西等地浆厂加大停机行动所带来的纸浆供应量明显减少，也将北美和欧洲纸浆市场供应紧俏程度也上推到一年来的新高度。在此局势下，2 月份主流漂针浆生产商宣布提涨 20 美元/吨，漂阔浆生产商提涨30美元/吨的行动已经实现。截至2月底，北美 NBSK 公告价格上涨至 1030 美元/吨，上涨 20 美元/吨，BEKP的公告价格上涨至 880 美元/吨的水平，上涨约 30-40 美元/吨；欧洲市场的 BEKP 公告价格上涨至 690美元/吨，环比上也涨 30 美元/吨。

随着消费能力的提升和消费主力群体的转变，轻工消费品正由过去的看重高性价比、耐用性向强调品牌、个性化、美观度演进，需求层次由满足基本的生存和功能性需求向娱乐型需求推进；供给端轻工制造企业也由简单的规模化生产、贴牌代工向设计+品牌两端提升，通过提供高附加值服务获取更多产品溢价。重点推荐家具、玩具、文具、教育领域的品牌崛起。

The packaging and labeling and printing industries are the two major end-user industries of synthetic paper. The growth of these sectors is attributed to the rapid rate of urbanization in the developing countries and the rising affluence of the middle-class population. These reasons have led to a rise in the opportunities for consumerism, such as a high demand for lifestyle services and consumer goods. The biaxially-oriented polypropylene (BOPP) segment was the largest material segment for synthetic paper due to its unique properties, such as easy printability, superior strength, versatility, and cost effectiveness. The segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% from 2015 to 2020.Labeling is the fastest growing application of the synthetic paper market. This fastpaced growth is attributed to the increased consumption of packaged foods and beverages, which is characterized by stringent labeling regulations.Asia-Pacific (APAC) was the largest synthetic paper market, and the growth can be attributed to the rise in demand from end-use industries including chemicals, cosmetics, and food and beverage. These industries have experienced an increase in consumption as a result of the increase in purchasing power and growth in disposable income of the working middle-class population.

地产三四线销量超预期，大部分家具品牌门店去年四季度订单火爆，部分订单转移到一季度完成，行业增速有望延续高增长。近期部分品牌家具涨价导致盈利弹性扩张逻辑并不可持续。对于低频次可选消费品，盈利能力提升发生在供给收缩以及需求扩张阶段，目前家具销量受制于地产周期下行，且终端需求无爆发式增长。对于经销商而言，原材料价格上涨与终端价格上涨不具可比性。因此，终端门店价格上涨并不代盈利能力提升。

需求平稳，并非主要矛盾。箱板瓦楞主要用于货物运输过程中的二次包装，下游行业较多，归根结底人口结构和地产周期是推动中期需求弹性的核心因素，而长期趋势则与宏观经济相关。过去一年，地产大年是需求改善的主因，婴儿潮红利尚需时日，整体来看，对箱板瓦楞需求的拉动有限。