1）从经销商的 五一订单数据上看，同比增长明显，需求 60-70%来自宴席、婚庆需求， 20-30%企业需求。同时基建带来的白酒需求有起色。2）中小酒厂这次 受疫情影响比较大，小企业现金流紧张，产品动销差，成本高，加速 退出市场。区域龙头率先复苏，以武汉市场为例，白云边复苏势头明 显强于稻花香和黄鹤楼。3）餐饮的影响主要是消费场景，目前武汉餐 饮 30%开业，外部区域餐饮开业率在 70%以上。

2020Q1 食品饮料基金重仓持股比例 6.9%，环比回落 0.9pct，已连续三个季度回落。 分子行业来看，白酒配置比例由 2019Q4 的 5.8%回落至 2020Q1 的 4.9%水平，多数 白酒公司的持有基金数增加。贵州茅台、五粮液等获基金增持、泸州老窖、古井贡 酒等被减持。非白酒配置比例回升 0.17pct，啤酒与乳制品被基金减持，考虑到食品饮料需求刚性，消 费复苏期间板块可能更获青睐，我们预计 2020Q2 基金持仓食品饮料比例可能回升。

大消费板块整体表现强势，农林牧渔领涨。周三沪深300 指数低开高走，收盘时上涨0.82%。大消费板块整体表现强势，除纺织服装行业外，其他消费板块均跑赢沪深300 指数，其中农林牧渔涨幅达到4.08%，涨幅居首，其中种业股迎来涨停潮。食品饮料涨幅仅次于农林牧渔，贵州茅台盘中创历史新高。休闲服务、商业贸易、家用电器和医药生物涨幅均超过1%。

Absinthe is a green or often colorless processed liquor with a very high alcoholic content, flavored with anise, wormwood, and some other aromatic, medicinal, and culinary herbs such as flowers and leaves of Artemisia absinthium. Its alcohol content is around 45 to 76% of total liquid alcohol. When Absinthe does not contain any added sugar in it, it is called spirit. Absinthe is bottled at a very high level of alcohol by volume, but at the time of consumption it is diluted with water. It is conventionally prepared from purification of neutral alcohol, spices, herbs, and water. While traditional absinthes are redistilled from white grape spirit, lesser absinthes were commonly made by alcohol processed from grain, potatoes, or beets. Different kind of herbs may be used in the preparation of absinthe such as angelica, petite wormwood hyssop, Melissa, coriander, star anise, peppermint, and veronica. In past times, when Absinthe was very little known, it had often been popularly portrayed as an addictive psychoactive drug, which causes hallucinogen. Although Absinthe was known as a drug causing hallucinogen, the twenty-first century has seen various types of absinthe, including a range of frozen preparations, which have become increasingly popular. Some of the popular types of absinthe are Blanche absinthe, Verte absinthe, Absenta, Hausgemacht, and Bohemian-style absinthe.

Milk products that are prepared by lactic acid fermentation or combination of lactic acid and yeast fermentation are called fermented or cultured milk products. Fermented milk is the collective name for products such as yoghurt, kefir, ymer, filmjölk, cultured buttermilk, koumiss, and cultured cream. The microorganisms used in the production of kefir and koumiss also produce ethyl alcohol. Milk turns sour and coagulated under the influence of certain microorganisms. There are variety of types of cultured milk products that can be found around the globe including milk, yogurt, cheese, and other cultured dairy foods. To achieve high quality products, milk must have high bacteriological quality, which includes low content of bacteria and substances that may prevent the development of yoghurt culture. It is necessary for a dairy to obtain milk for yoghurt production from selected and approved producers and carefully analyze the same.

乳制品方面，生鲜乳价格继续下行。截至 2020 年 4 月 8 日，主产区生鲜乳 平均价为 3.62 元/公斤，环比继续下滑，同比上涨 2.3%，增速继续缩窄。

 休闲食品连锁行业进入扩张期，预计未来 3 年门店数量增速 10%+。 18 年我国休闲食品行业销售额 10297 亿元，12-18 年 CAGR12%。随 着休闲食品线上渠道红利逐渐消退，商超渠道客流量下滑，满足即食性 需求、体验感强的连锁门店模式有望进入快速扩张期。18 年休闲食品 连锁模式 5 大龙头（绝味\良品\煌上煌\紫燕\来伊份）门店数量 20668 家，收入 152 亿元，14-18 年门店数量和收入复合增速分别为 11%和 12%。我们认为随着休闲卤制品龙头快速扩张以及线上龙头加速布局 连锁门店，预计未来 3 年休闲食品行业连锁门店数量 CAGR10%+。

疫后渠道逐步恢复，政策刺激拉动消费。春节期间餐饮消费受到抑制， 节前白酒动销基本完成。餐饮端：受疫情影响，20 年春节假期餐饮销 售几乎停滞，三月中下旬在多方努力下陆续追回。商务端：因武汉封城 较晚，节前商务拜访、送礼等需求基本得到满足，一季度白酒销售基本 保障。家庭端：春节期间送礼使用的高端乳制品等出现库存积压。疫情 管制下主要消费场景减少，必选消费刚性。2 月社零总额同比降低 20.5%，增速环比降低 28.7pct，分品类看，餐饮业受挫程度最大，烟酒 消费同比下降 15.7%，但粮食、食品类必选消费具备刚性，同比增长 9.7%。春节后商超农贸积极复工实现供应，政策上鼓励消费保障经济。