汽车行业指数5 月明显上涨，涨跌幅位于申万行业指数第7 名。5 月（2020.5.19-2020.6.15）全A 指数涨跌幅为+0.51%，汽车行业涨跌幅为+4.47%，领先大盘3.92pct，位于SW 一级行业中第7 位。

上半年乘用车销量恢复较好，预计下半年批发增速+4%、明年汽车换购大年加持上行周期。乘用车销量1 季度腰斩、2 季度迅速恢复，超出季初预期。基于2Q20 超预期，以及宏观持续恢复、后续内外经济共振预期，我们对3-4Q20汽车销量持乐观预期，同时预计2021 年将迎来2009 年的报废换购峰和2016年的二手换购峰，换购大年+需求恢复双因素叠加，带来相对强劲的上行周期。

6 月22 日，工信部、财政部等五部委联合发布《关于修改〈乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法〉的决定》（以下简称《决定》），自2021 年1 月1 日起施行。

2020 年7 月1 日起全国新售轻型车开始实行国六a 阶段标准（15 个省市已提前实行），2021 年7 月1 日起新售重型柴油车实施国六a 阶段标准。国六标准对尾气污染物要求提升超50%。厂商需对车辆后处理系统升级，同时安装多类尾气处理装置（汽油车增加GPF，柴油车基本统一采用DOC+DPF+SCR+ASC 的技术路线），单车价值量接近翻倍。我们测算2020E汽车后处理系统市场规模约655 亿元（同比+25%），2021E 市场规模达到726 亿元（同比+11%）。

在政策和车企的共同推动下，未来几年新能源汽车有望迎来快速发展，当前车规级IGBT 供不应求，国内龙头厂商产能扩张叠加技术进步，有望加速进口替代，重点推荐开启外供的国内车规级IGBT 龙头比亚迪（汽车覆盖）和进军车规级市场的自主IGBT 龙头斯达半导（电子覆盖）。

Large number of next gen memory technologies are under development which promise to meet the growing demand of consumer electronics and enterprise storage systems and applications. Smart phone and other consumer electronics OEMs in particular are looking for the next big competitive advantage, and all signs point to new memory technologies as the most powerful choice. The traditional memories, DRAM and NAND, are falling off Moore's law and therefore research and development is going on for new memory devices. Also, a lot of industries are experiencing technology convergence, resulting in increased complexity of their systems. This convergence is evidenced in numerous devices such as automotive, smartphones, wireless communication and smart factories. In 2017, the information electronics industry saw another peak which resulted in the serious shortage of spare parts. Thus, manufacturers increased their production capacity to meet demand supply gap. Also, introduction of innovative features such as the face recognition in mobile phone by Apple Computer, which later fermented on many application surfaces, including the other mobile phones, access control, unmanned vehicles, automotive, etc. This will increase the demand for highly complex natured integrated circuits (ICs) in coming years. Such trends along with increasing complexity in consumer electronics design and growing automotive expertise is also expected to drive the demand for SLC NAND flash memory worldwide. The market for SLC NAND flash memory has been segmented into three major segments including type, application, and density. The type segment is fragmented by serial and parallel. The application segment is sub-divided into consumer electronics, industrial, automotive, communication, computers & IT, and others. All the application segments have further been sub-divided into the smaller application components.

创企研发氢燃料随时可用技术，让汽车自行生产零排放燃料。5 月15 日，盖世汽车讯，据外媒报道，美国印第安纳州初创公司Aluminum Gallium（AlGalCo）正利用氢燃料随时可用（hydrogen-on-tap）技术改造皮卡和其他类似车型，该技术能够让车辆自己生产氢燃料，即当汽车运行时，就开始自行生产零排放燃料。

通用研发下一代半自动驾驶系统Ultra Cruise。5 月20 日，盖世汽车网讯，据外媒报道，5 月19 日，通用汽车全球产品开发、采购和供应链执行副总裁Doug Parks 表示，该公司正在开发新一代半自动驾驶系统，内部代号为UltraCruise（超巡航）。

新能源汽车销量下半年拐点向上，国内电池及材料供应商料将加速放量。新能源汽车补贴政策退坡幅度较小，考虑到电池及其它零部件的成本下降，预计今年新能源车企的毛利率水平有望改善。

疫情不改电动化趋势，零部件龙头竞争力彰显。国内动力电池行业经十年产业培育，产业链完善度在全球处于领先地位，动力电池、材料和资源公司已逐步进入全球供应链，部分环节已成长出具备全球话语权的企业，有望持续受益于全球电动化进程。疫情下机遇与挑战并存，国内零部件企业成本和技术优势凸显，龙头竞争力有望进一步提升。随着中游材料排产好转，行业景气度有望持续改善。