美国市场在线券商行业业务模式面临零佣金浪潮冲击，客户资产规模效应加强导致行业整合加剧。传统佣金收入利润空间收窄，利息收入、财富管理收入、做市商模式、订单流付款收入成为新的业绩增长动力。

3 月份超储率料上行至1.3%左右，4-5 月份压力加大，近期央行资产负债表变化也值得关注：一是2020 年12 月和2021 年1 月，“其他资产”合计新增6500亿人民币，不排除是央行与部分国有大行开展了货币互存业务。二是2021 年2月“国外资产：其他”新增1020 亿人民币，不排除是金融机构加大了“以外汇形式缴存的人民币准备金”，央行相应释放了人民币资金。后续应持续观测外币流动性注入是否形成人民币基础货币新的投放管道。

银行板块具备较强防御属性，在市场震荡下表现尤好。年初至今银行股上涨9.3%，跑赢上证综指10.9pct。本周有6 家银行披露年报，整体呈现净利润增速环比回升、存量不良包袱减轻、资产质量指标改善的趋势，进一步验证行业基本面上行逻辑。预计1Q21 银行息差稳定向好（信贷需求旺盛、额度紧张，新发信贷利率上行）、资产规模较快增长、资产质量保持稳健，银行经营景气度持续提升。

按照我们2021 年投资策略的观点，2021 年二季度前后将迎来债务的集中到期，货币政策或被动放松。结合我们对政府债发行节奏的判断，4 月或有新的中长期流动性投放。当前银行板块个股公布的业绩报告显示，盈利总体向好，资产质量改善，结合当前板块的整体估值水平，以及对2021 年业绩的预测，我们认为板块部分个股仍有上升空间。

从发行数量来看，最新理财子产品发行数量指数为109.09，环比减少32.4%，发行数量较上周明显回落，我们认为3 月前3周的样本理财子发行产品数量均维持60 只以上，发行量较前两个月增大，因此月末数量回落但整月发行数量同比大幅增长。调
整后理财子产品发行数量指数为100，环比下降40.2%，混合类产品比重为16.7%，环比下降8.7pct。从发行数量偏离度来看，最新偏离度为1.33，环比下降0.17。

The report covers the detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of the global market based on type, channel, and region. It analyses government regulations, and policies, to provide information on the current market trends in different regions and suggests the future growth opportunities. The report covers the overall net value of different products of duty-free liquor consumed by various consumers across the globe. The study highlights Porter’s five forces analysis to determine the factors affecting the market growth. These factors include raw material prices, intense competition, end users, manufacturers, and suppliers. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report.

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