我们看多汽车板块三大理由依然成立：1）景气复苏逻辑正在验证！长期国内乘用车销量依然可创新高！2）从周期到成长股估值体系的变化。未来汽车是“电动+智能”共同定价，会成为下一个移动终端，软件持续收费成为主盈利模式。数据积累构建长期护城河，形成强者恒强的局面。3）新一轮自主崛起将成为未来3 年整车股核心主线。电动智能车带动自主品牌进一步跨越20 万价格带，市占率进一步提升。整车板块（长城汽车/长安汽车/吉利汽车/比亚迪/广汽集团/上汽集团），零部件板块优选核心赛道，智能化（华阳集团/德赛西威/中国汽研）+特斯拉产业链（拓普集团+银轮股份+旭升股份）+单一品类赛道（福耀玻璃+星宇股份+万里扬）。

11月汽车板块收益率继续跑赢大市。11月，恒生指数上涨9.3%；沪深300指数上涨5.6%；Wind 汽车与汽车零部件指数上涨8.8%；Wind 香港汽车与汽车零部件指数上涨21.5%。

11 月沪深300 上涨5.6%，申万汽车指数上涨8.0%，表现跑赢大盘。11月汽车销售277.0 万辆，同比增长12.6%；其中乘用车销售229.7 万辆，同比增长11.6%；商用车销售47.2 万辆，同比增长18.0%。

Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) is a wireless communications technology that aims to enable data exchange between a vehicle and its surroundings. In a V2X ecosystem, vehicles, mobile devices, and roadside equipment, among others, generate and exchange data, allowing them to alert the users about driving and environment conditions on the road. By leveraging V2X communications, the driving experience of drivers, pedestrians, and other vehicles is enhanced by the prevention of crashes, enhancement in traffic flow, reduction in transit trip times, and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Automakers worldwide are moving toward electrifying their fleets, but it does not mean that every future car or truck will need to be plugged in. Instead, the first wave of this advancement is 48-volt technology. This new technology includes the benefits such as decreased emissions and improved acceleration. In addition, the new onboard battery systems provide extra power to run infotainment and advanced safety systems in vehicle. Moreover, the 48-volt systems are an easy way for automakers to improve performance, fuel economy, and even durability. Most cars today contain the typical 12-volt electrical system that relies on an alternator to convert the engine’s power into electrical current. That current charges the vehicle’s starter battery and runs all the vehicle’s electrical components, including lighting, infotainment, and safety systems. But 12-volt systems are becoming inadequate for modern vehicles. Further, many parts in the vehicle nowadays require electrical power, advanced safety technology, and convenience features. This is the main reason automakers, including Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, have started designing vehicles using 48- volt systems.

作为储能技术的具体体现之一，动力电池对能量密度、功率密度的需求较高，同时也要兼顾安全性、寿命与成本。铅酸电池系统能量密度低（约30Wh/kg），远低于锂离子电池（约150Wh/kg），对应车型的工况续航也有巨大差距。铅酸电池车面对燃油车型全无竞争力，而锂电车型逐步具备了竞争力。

新能源汽车行业发展需要供需双向发力。2020 年以来，新能源汽车产品力不断提升，优质供给层出不穷，新能源汽车To C 端市场逐步打开。特斯拉Model 3 引领电动化潮流；造车新势力异军突起，热门车型销量节节攀升；五菱宏光MINI 等黑马定位明确，发力渗透三四线城市及乡镇地区；新能源汽车市场逐步向全国铺展。2020 年下半年行业景气度逐级抬升，同比呈现高增速，带动动力电池装机拐点向上。11 月份单月销量更是突破20 万辆大关，同比实现翻倍。1-11 月份合计销量110.9 万辆，同比增速终于转正，全年预计销量130 万辆以上。年底产销旺季，中游排产积极，也印证行业景气度。欧洲地区在趋严的碳排放政策及各国不断加码的扶持政策下，新能源汽车销量保持了高速增长。11 月，欧洲七国（不含英国）新能源车销量达到12.85 万辆，同比增长218%。其中，德国和法国新能源车销量为5.96、1.86 万辆，同比增长442%、236%。随着欧盟达成减排共识，将2030 年减排目标由之前的40%提升至55%，欧盟此前设立的2030 年59g/km 的碳排标准有望进一步收紧至50g/km以下。欧洲地区新能源车渗透率尚有大幅提升空间，利好我国新能源汽车中游跻身海外高端供应链的优质企业。我们重点推荐宁德时代、亿纬锂能、当升科技、恩捷股份、新宙邦等，建议关注璞泰来、赣锋锂业、雅化集团等。