在油价上行、宏观经济复苏背景下，预计2021年化工行业景气度上行，我们上调行业至“强于大市”评级。目前行业估值及主要化工品价格均处于历史较低分位数水平，后续有较大提升空间。我们给出化工行业2021年十大预测，投资机会主要在碳中和、碳交易、油价上行、顺周期、农化需求、消费品、材料平台、可降解塑料、风光锂军需求、汽车地产复苏等领域。

OPEC+联合减产形成油价底部支撑，但仍需关注非OPEC 产量（加拿大重质油、巴西、中亚）、全球宏观经济下行风险与贸易风险进一步发酵对油价的影响。推荐聚酯产业链一体化建设加快并进军大炼化、布局C2/C3 轻烃裂解的优秀民营炼化企业（卫星石化、桐昆股份、恒力石化、荣盛石化、恒逸石化）；关注宝丰能源。

近期我们对上市品牌商天猫官旗双十二（12.1-12.12）销售额跟踪如下：贝泰妮、珀莱雅主品牌高基数下维持25%+快速增长；华熙旗下新锐功能性护肤品牌受益细分赛道景气，爆发增长；御泥坊（御家汇）、玉泽（家化）表现可圈可点。

本周化工新材料指数跑输创业板指，截至 2020 年 12 月 19 日，化工新材料指数收 1070 点，较此前的 1042 点上涨 2.73%，跑输同期创业板指的上涨 3.46%。

The demand for cleaner fuels has been increasing exponentially in colder regions as cleaner fuels have lower freezing points and lower densities. Due to these reasons, the automobiles that use fuel have increased the demand for cleaner fuels as they help eliminate the start-up problems during cold seasons. Countries such as Canada and the U.S. face these difficulties as the temperature during winters reaches as low as -10oC. Cleaner fuels also result in more efficient engine performance, which is a concerning matter, especially in cold seasons, when there is a minimal but effective contraction in the engine. This contraction leads to lowered performance due to ineffective fuel combustion and power generation. Countries such as Canada have implemented “Clean Fuel Standards,” which define the allowed impurity levels in the fuels. This also helps in reducing greenhouse effects as the engines become more efficient. The standards implemented in 2016, were aimed at controlling the carbon emissions by fuel economy.

Pad printing has been a conventional method of printing on curved and uneven surfaces for a long time. It involves the transfer of 2D images or texts onto a 3D surface with the help of flexible silicone pads. It is a spin-off of conventional offset printing. Recently, digital printing has paved the way for printing on the surfaces with variable diameter using digital cylinder printing technique. This process directly strews ink over a curved surface which is in a close vicinity to the cylindrical printheads using digital imaging systems. Additionally, this process uses a robot automation system which tracks the surface of the substrate and calculates the angle of inclination with help of a computer-aided software. This ensures that the substrate and the printheads are always less than 5 mm of distance, which is the optimum distance to get a high-resolution print. Thus, digital cylinder printing offers a faster turnaround time than the conventional pad printing method, due to the single-pass mechanism and no requirement of pre-setups for printing. Many companies such as Inkcups, PadJet, Automated Marking, Inc., and BottleJET are offering products to print on curved surfaces. Such developments are going to boost the digital printing ink market in the coming years.

Methodical understanding of the core and adjacent markets as well as the industry changes, for the critical assessment of business dynamics of the markets in scope, including the drivers, challenges, and opportunities for various players Impact analysis of developments and initiatives made by governments as well as corporate stakeholders that influence the business environment for both market participants as well as customers Examination of competitor’s strategies and their recent developments for effective assessment of market movements at each level of the supply chain, along with supply chain analysis and supply and demand analysis for identifying the key stakeholders in the silicon photonics market Triangulation of the supply-demand gaps with business drivers and challenges to anticipate business opportunities and new revenue pockets, along with industry attractiveness analysis for identifying whether new products, services, or businesses have the potential to be profitable in the silicon photonics market

Methodological understanding of the core and adjacent markets as well as the industry changes, for a critical assessment of business dynamics of the materials in scope Analysis of the impact of developments and initiatives made by governments as well as corporate stakeholders that influence the business environment for both market participants as well as customers Examination of competitor’s strategies and their recent developments for effective assessment of market movements at each level of the supply chain Triangulation of the supply-demand gaps with business drivers and challenges to anticipate business opportunities and revenue pockets

Superabsorbent polymer (SAP) is a material that has high liquid absorbing capacity. It is cross-linked structure polymer, which avoids dissolution. These types of polymers can absorb liquid up to 100 times of its own weight. Therefore, it is used in products, such as child diapers/nappies, incontinence items, and others, where high absorption characteristics are required. The report focuses on types of super absorbent polymers such as synthetic and natural. The applications covered in the study include personal care, healthcare, agriculture &horticulture, and others. In addition, different production methods analyzed in the report are suspension polymerization, solution polymerization, and gel polymerization. Furthermore, the study evaluates the current market trends and suggests future growth opportunities by analyzing government regulations & policies. The report further covers the strategies adopted by the key players to sustain the competitive environment and increase their market share.

疫情导致行业至暗时刻，国内国外恢复节奏不同。2020年，疫情影响下，原油价格大幅下跌，终端需求骤然冰冻，化工行业迎来至暗时刻。二季度开始，随着防疫措施推进，全球经济艰难重启，但是国内国外恢复的节奏不同，使中国制造的竞争优势得以凸显。在此背景下，作为中国制造的重要组成部分，化工行业景气逐步走出泥淖，并在下半年开始明显受益于海外需求拉动，产品价格回升明显，并有望将强势延续，充分受益来年全球经济向上趋势。