2019 年，世界经济充斥着不确定性和不稳定性，全球贸易保护主义仍在升级，国际贸易、制造业生产、消费投资信心等降至近年来低点。面对国内外风险挑战明显上升的复杂局面，我国坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线，加强宏观政策逆周期调节，全力做好稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期的“六稳”工作，经济运行总体平稳，发展质量稳步提升，主要预期目标任务较好完成，2019 年全年国内生产总值比上年增长6.1%。长期以来，我国经济的高速增长主要通过需求侧改革的思路实现，而随着“供给侧结构性改革”的推进，汽车市场短期内尽管面临增速下调的压力，但技术变革和趋势性变化也将给汽车产业发展带来新的机遇。宏观经济增长方式的转变，将带动汽车工业格局转变，加快实现行业增长动力转换。

回顾200 多年的发展历史，总体来看，电池向更高的能量密度（体积 &重量）发展，此外，安全性、循环性及成本等因素也影响电池的商业化 应用。就汽车领域来看，车用动力电池发展主要经历了镍氢/锰酸锂-磷酸 铁锂-三元锂电三个阶段，电池性能持续优化，成本不断下降。电池环节的 技术更新会带来风险但也伴随着机遇，因此关注技术路线十分重要；特斯 拉搭载的动力电池始终引领行业，有必要对其电池战略加以重视。

2020Q1汽车销量366.4万辆，同比-42.4%，利润下滑八成。2月为销量底部，随后迅速恢复；4月汽车销量207 万辆，同比增长4.5%，已现景气拐点。我们认为产销逐渐恢复，叠加各地政府相继出台刺激汽车消费政策，有望 加速新一轮汽车周期底部向上。

4 月乘用车终端零售环比大幅改善、呈现V 型回升的态势：4 月份全月 狭义乘用车零售量142.9 万量，同比-5.6%，环比36.6%，大幅改善。4 月 狭义日均零售销量47635.7 辆，环比增速41.1%。4 月SUV 和C 级车领先 恢复增长，代表了消费升级的高端换购需求迅速回暖。从当月和累计数据 来看，华晨宝马、北京奔驰等豪华品牌销售好于其他合资品牌和自主品牌。

基于汽车行业业绩、销量、公募持仓、估值低位角 度，我们建议关注受益于终端乘用车的逐步回暖的一线自主品牌、 保持高景气度的重卡产业链及由于下游终端销量逐步改善带动细 分领域优质零部件业绩回升的投资机会。

乘用车、重卡：5 月初乘用车略有下滑受工作日基数影响，重卡维持高 增长。根据中机中心数据，20 年5 月1-10 日我国汽车行业合格证为 51.0 万辆，同比增长3.2%，在4 月增速转正后持续正增长，20 年累 计同比下滑29.4%，其中：5 月1-10 日广义乘用车合格证产量为33.6 万辆，同比下降5.4%，20 年累计下滑37.7%，考虑到20 年5 月前10 日工作日为4 天而去年同期为6 天，前10 日产量下滑受工作日基数影 响；5 月1-10 日重卡合格证产量同比增长33.3%，在4 月增长54.4% 后仍维持了很高的景气度，20 年累计增长8.5%，分企业看，5 月1-10 日中国重汽合格证表现大幅好于行业，福田汽车表现也相对较好。

疫情不改行业中长期趋势，考虑到库存周期的改善和疫情得 到控制后批发、终端需求的企稳，乘用车整车我们推荐经营韧性强、低 估值高股息率的龙头上汽集团，零部件板块我们推荐盈利能力稳定性 高、低估值高分红品种华域汽车及业绩拐点确立的万里扬，汽车服务板 块推荐中国汽研。重卡股我们推荐依靠新品周期、未来份额或持续提升 的中国重汽，受益大排量重卡渗透率提升、国际化领先的潍柴动力（A/H） 及低估值高壁垒、盈利和分红稳定性可期的威孚高科（A/B）。

事件：4 月社会消费品零售总额28178 亿元，同比下降7.5%，降幅较3 月收窄8.3pct。其中汽车商品零售额3083 亿元，与上年同期基本持平， 降幅较3 月收窄18.1pct。

Discrete semiconductor market is driven by the increasing need to manage power across electronics, and miniaturization. The reduction in package size is inversely proportional to power dissipation. For instance, NXP semiconductors achieved 55% reduction in packaging size for its transistors range, by retaining the same power performance. Additi onally, Diodes Incorporated launched 40V- rated DMTH4008LFDFWQ and 60V-rated DMTH6016LFDFWQ automotive-compliant MOSFETs packaged in DFN2020. Moreover, characteristics, like safety, infotainment, navigation, and fuel efficiency in the automotive components, and security, automation, solid-state lighting, transportation, and energy management in industrial components, are expected to fuel the market studied. One of the significant trends in discrete semiconductors is efficient power management. New system architectures are improving the efficiency of AC-DC power adapters, while simultaneously reducing the size and component count. New standards for Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) allow higher power transfer, which enables the development of new classes of devices, like connected lighting.

Discrete semiconductor market is driven by the increasing need to manage power across electronics, and miniaturization. The reduction in package size is inversely proportional to power dissipation. For instance, NXP semiconductors achieved 55% reduction in packaging size for its transistors range, by retaining the same power performance. Additi onally, Diodes Incorporated launch ed 40V- rated DMTH4008LFDFWQ and 60V-rated DMTH6016LFDFWQ automotive-compliant MOSFETs packaged in DFN2020. Moreover, characteristics, like safety, infotainment, navigation, and fuel efficiency in the automotive components, and security, automation, solid-state lighting, transportation, and energy management in industrial components, are expected to fuel the market studied. One of the significant trends in discrete semiconductors is efficient power management. New system architectures are improving the efficiency of AC-DC power adapters, while simultaneously reducing the size and component count. New standards for Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) allow higher power transfer, which enables the development of new classes of devices, like connected lighting. Several aspects of wearable devices, from the underlying physics to the end-user experience, play crucial roles in driving consumer adoption and acceptance. Discrete semiconductor companies are poised to benefit from being cognizant of the challenges and market trends during the designing phase of products, to stay on the competitive edge.