经济增长、流动性环境、银行业基本面是决定银行板块走势的核心驱动因素，而板块的估值水平、金融监管环境等可能是行情启动的催化性因素。当前银行板块所处环境与2012-2014 年有诸多相似之处，核心区别在于，当前财政、流动性环境等前瞻性指标相对较好，息差、资产质量等滞后性报表指标表现相对较差。以史为鉴可知兴替，我们详细复盘比较了2012-2014 年和2020 年以来银行板块表现，同时结合当前板块估值水平、流动性环境等探讨本轮银行板块上涨空间还有多大。

2020 年7 月3 日，人民银行会同银保监会、证监会和外汇管理局发布了《标准化债权类资产认定规则》，自2020 年8 月3 日起施行，促进市场平稳过渡。

6 月份中信银行指数上涨0.1%，跑输沪深300 指数7.6 个百分点，月末银行板块平均PB(MRQ)收于0.74x，平均PE(TTM)收于5.9x。上月首推组合月算术平均收益率1.9%，相对沪深300 收益率-5.8%，相对行业指数收益率1.8%。

本篇报告将通过梳理国际资本监管演变和资本工具的创新经验，结合国内资本补充现状，分析我国商业银行尤其是中小银行在当下经济和监管环境下，可借鉴的资本补充手段。

过去几年，银行业经营环境可谓 “大风大浪”。首先行业面临的就是宏观经济下行压力加大，接着2017 年以来行业监管趋严，2018-2019 年中美贸易摩擦、2020 年疫情冲击下Q1GDP 增速更是下降至-6.8%，伴随期间的是利率快速下行（10 年期国债收益率从4%左右一度降至最低2.4%）。也正是在这几年中，银行业经历了息差收窄、资产质量承压、业务结构调整等诸多压力，商业模式从“规模驱动”逐步过渡到“高质量发展”。但是我们欣喜的看到，经过十几年市场化的经营，银行股的分化越来越大，涌现出一批非常优质的公司，披荆斩棘、乘风破浪。

Smart cities are growing globally, due to urbanization, which is enabling the growth. According to projections by the United Nations, in India, 404 million, China, 292 million, and Nigeria, 212 million, urban dwellers are expected to be added to the existing populations by 2050. Smart city platforms perform various functions, such as analytics, remote asset monitoring, performance management, decision suppor t, or presentation components. Most of the technologically advanced cities are making use of the Internet of Things platform to monitor city infrastructure, to manage everything from traffic flows and parking to water and air quality, and using the resulting smart data generated to tackle longer-term planning decisions around environmental sustainability. The smar t city platforms offer a foundation for urban infrastructure, applications, and services, and various city-specific functions. One of the significant factors expected to drive the growth of the market in cities is giving priority to platform providers as compared to standalone smart solutions, because of the scalability and integration of other smart solutions. Thus, with the growing popularity of such solutions, companies are increasingly investing in such solutions. For instance, in 2018, Huawei launched a new smart city platform that helps governments and other organizations develop, test, and deploy smart urban initiatives, bringing technologies, such as AI, hybrid cloud, and the IoT.

In the current era of smart grid, massive amounts of data are being generated. Data analytics solutions, (the process of analyzing data, primarily to identify significant, useful, and interesting trends and patterns) are expected to enable the utility to transform the vast volume of information generated into profitable business insights. As energy plays a prominent role in the socio-economic development of any country, the South Asian countries, like Sri Lanka and India, are encouraging the deployment of solar panel grids to produce electricity for own consumption and business purposes. Globally, the electric power systems have been witnessing changes. These electric power systems depend on centralized fossil-fuel plants to generate electricity and extensive grids to deliver it to different end-users. The demand for cost-effective power supplies for consumers in the utility sector led the market for smart grid analytics, globally. In an ever-growing power environment, a vast amount of data is generated by smart meters, sensors, automated dispensing systems, etc. Utility owners or suppliers utilize this huge amount of data to track demand and consumption, prevent power cuts, and reduce downtime. From the smart meters installed, the organizations can collect thousands of data points and elements per month, along with various types of measurements. This technological shift was primarily enabled by the improvements in communications and metering technology, mostly suppor ted by plummeting costs for storage and processing power.