资本推动的“互联网+”时代的到来在催生成千上万创业大军的同时，同样让互联网与各个行业的融合速度不断加快。家装行业亦不例外。长期在家装黑幕当中挣扎着的人们，寄希望于互联网的披荆斩棘能够简单、快速地解决他们的装修痛点，正如互联网在改造其他行业时所展现出来的巨大力量一样。

2017 年春节黄金周（1 月27 日至2 月2 日）全国零售和餐饮企业实现额约8400 亿元，同比增长11.4%，增速同比上升0.2 个百分点，扣除CPI 因素与去年基本持平。

当陪伴我们一代又一代的“传统百货”面临关店，当网购规模不在如从前般疯狂增长的时候，零售业是否真的走到了终点？答案当然是“否”！恰恰相反，在科技巨头公司的带动下，零售业正在翻开崭新篇章：亚马逊打造了「Amazon Go」“不排队、不结账”的新型超市；阿里投资的「盒马鲜生」绝非传统连锁超市+APP，而是供应链重构、品类重构、服务重构后诞生的新零售！

2016H2 及鸡年春节消费均有所回暖，经济企稳及房地产调控有望推动鸡年消费持续升温，同时进入年报披露期，建议四主线选股：1. 业绩高成长估值合理的新零售龙头：永辉超市、苏宁云商、南极电商、跨境通、青岛金王；2. 百货龙头受益行业回暖与业绩提升，推荐天虹商场、鄂武商A；3. 混改预期明确、改善弹性大的的百联股份、银座股份、中百集团；4. 自下而上转型，资产提供安全边际，推荐友阿股份。同时看好家家悦在次新板块超额收益。

2017 春节黄金周销售额实现三连增达8400 亿，消费复苏逻辑下关注超市和百货板块经营边际改善个股。

The sales in department stores in Germany are declining owing to the growth of other retail formats like discount stores, shopping malls, and e-commerce websites. Players like Hertie, Horten, Wehmeyer, and Bilka that were popular among generations of German shoppers have shut down operations. Closures of more

department stores in the country are likely to occur during the forecast period. Such closures will offer opportunities for urban development and for retailers with other

successful formats like shopping malls as these stores are located at very busy and centralized locations.Online retailing is becoming increasingly popular among customers, particularly in the mid-market consumer segment. However, the in-store shopping experiences are still important for purposes of touch and feel, information collection, and purchases. Thus, omnichannel retailing is an emerging trend in the market.

Welcome to Deloitte’s annual Global Powers of Retailing report. This report marks the 20th year of identifying the 250 largest retailers around the world and analyzing their performance across geographies,sectors, and channels.Over the last 20 years we have seen a seismic shift in retail and the customers that retailers serve.Consider that in 1997, the inaugural year of this report,

today’s average Amazon Prime customer was just 16 years old, AOL was pioneering social media, and handheld virtual pets were the hottest-selling toys.Today, handheld (or wearable) digital devices are ubiquitous and a younger, social customer has come of

age. We are living in an era where customers are in the driver’s seat more than ever before and they are craving authenticity, newness, convenience, and creativity. We are living in the customer-driven economy.

2016 年，我国汽车产销较快增长，产销总量再创历史新高。根据中国汽车工业协会（中汽协）发布的统计数据显示， 2016 年中国汽车市场累计销售新车 2802.8 万辆，比上年同期增长 13.7%，增速高于上年同期 9.0 个百分点。其中，乘用车销量完成2437.7 万辆，比上年同期增长 14.9%，增速高于汽车市场总体 1.3 个百分点，其快速增长对于汽车产销增长贡献度达到 94.1%。商用车销量完成 365.1 万辆，与上年同期相比增长了 5.8%，增幅进一步提高。从整体来看， 2016 年的汽车市场发展体现了“年初低、年中高、四季度稳”的增长特征。

回顾2016年中国电商经济已步入“新常态”，增速保持平稳增长状态。B2B继续发力逐渐成增长新引擎，网购竞争格局稳定，移动端成为主战场，品牌电商服务景气向上，电商渠道地位加强。展望2017年，在政策、资本、企业等共同助力下，中国电子商务市场还将保持相对较快的增速，特别是在B2B电商、农村电商、跨境电商等领域。而在市场趋势和市场格局上，新的一年将呈现出怎么的变化？

新年首个交易日央行变相加息，提升隔夜 SLF 与回购利率 10 个基点，2017 年防风险、促改革的经济目标明确，首棋落盘。虽然利率提升的宏观政策或对市场整体估值形成压缩，但水泥板块表现亮眼，单日涨幅 0.8%，我们认为这是开春需求预期依然向好、叠加供给侧改革预期作用的结果，且相对于流动性拐点，需求预期是目前阶段水泥板块调整的更核心因素------2016 年全国水泥产量 24亿吨，同比增长 2.5%，行业在地产回暖和基建发力下实现正增长，全年基建投资增速 17.4%，地产投资增速 6.9%，在经济增长惯性（前期销售高增速对后续投资仍存在一定拉动作用）和基建托底预期下，市场对开春水泥需求预期升温，同时供给侧改革从煤炭向钢铁水泥蔓延。