2019 年盈利能力好转，1 季度业绩受疫情影响。 2019 年，A 股 22 家教育上市公司合计实现教育业务收入 332.7 亿元，同比增长 12.90%，净利润亏损 1,102.5 万元， 相比 2018 年商誉计提资产减值损失拖累业绩大幅亏损（净 利润亏损 47.4 亿元）的情况有所好转。2020 年 1 季度，因 受新冠病毒肺炎影响，无法正常开展教学，22 家教育上市公 司合计实现教育业务收入 55.4 亿元，同比下降 30%，大部分 公司亏损，净利润合计亏损 1.2 亿元,同比下降 128%。

本期最受关注的是各省市校外培训机构逐步开始线下复课。1 月 27 日， 教育部发布了《关于 2020 年春季学期延期开学的通知》，此后各省市线下培 训机构业务开展停滞。目前广东、上海、天津等多地已对校外培训机构线下复 课时间做出了安排。我们认为，对于线下培训业态而言，短期来看，疫情使其 春招停滞，从而对其现金流和确认收入产生较大的影响，中小企业存在陷入现 金流断裂风险，而成本项的相对刚性导致企业全年业绩有下降风险。另外基于 健康的考虑，疫情逐步缓和之后家长和学生在新增报课时会有一定的慎重，需 求恢复需要一定的时间。但是中长期来看，疫情对企业业绩主要系一次性的影 响，师资、教研、运营等教育核心环节的深耕仍是企业竞争的关键。

The advancements in information and communication technologies are forcing the educators and learners to move past the constraints of time, space, and environment. While traditional classroom education is well-known learning systems outside the classroom, especially those enhanced through technology, are still being discussed. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) represent the final stage in distance education, as these offer open educational resources to the students all around the world. MOOCs are designed to be scalable to large online masses, with free participation and without formal requirements to provide opportunity to learn through hundreds of public and private universities or organizations for millions of individuals around the world. However, since MOOCs became mainstream in 2012, their completion rates remain a highly debated subject, ranging from 0.7% to 52.1%, the median value being 12.6%. The first-generation MOOCs (cMOOCs) were connectivist, student-driven, chaotic, and open-ended. cMOOCs have continued throughout the years through examples, such as CCK08 (2008), PLENK2010 (2010), MobiMOOC (2011), etc. Unlike cMOOCs, xMOOCs or AI-Stanford-like courses are based on cognitive-behaviorist and social constructivism approaches and are web pages, in which the instructor provides video-based courses to a large number of learners.

（1）三级流量转化体系中用户精准度不断提高、课程服务逐渐加重。转化过程中付费意愿不断提高，免费课以非付费用户为主，低价课用户有较强的付费意愿，此外课程服务逐渐加重，由免费课的轻度服务过渡到低价课的超预期服务。（2）从课程体系和销售跟进两个方面对用户进行分层，匹配不同的产品或施加不同的续费营销手段。一方面根据课程难度及用户需求对其进行精细化分层管理，为不同组别的用户提供不同的产品与服务，另一方面对不同层级的用户采取不同的续费措施。