前言：透平叶片是透平机械（如汽轮机、燃气轮机、水轮机等）中用以引导流体按一定方向流动，并推动转子旋转 的重要部件。透平机械中最具技术含量和产业价值的航空发动机被誉为是“现代工业的皇冠”，其相关的叶片制造被 誉为是“皇冠上的明珠”。对于航空叶片，随着中国航空产业的进步，国内叶片生产商在国际市场中的参与度不断提 升，逐步迈进航空叶片制造的万亿规模市场的大门。

The UAV market is growing at a sharp pace, globally. The use of UAVs are increasing, irrespective of the end use. The UAV industry has grown at such an amazing rate, that it is almost impossible to count or describe all the applications that have become normal practices pertaining to the same. The military segment is now the largest revenue share holder in the market studied, with UAVs being procured aggressively by various militaries, globally. Tec hnological adva nceme nts and the increasing adoption of UAVs for various applications, both in commercial and military, are expected to augment the rapid growth of the market studied.

Increasing arable land area, demand for agricultural mechanization in matured, as well as emerging markets, is driving the tractor market, globally.  There have been significant advancements in the technology to enhance engine efficiency and increase the horsepower capacity of the tractors.  Four-wheel drive tractors being very less in number, in comparison to two-wheel drive tractors has a considerable growth potential over the forecast period, due to rising demand for efficient power utilization, thereby, eliminating loss of torque due to low traction conditions.  The rising demand for mechanization and the increased number of medium-scale farmers are the primary factors that created a demand for tractor hiring in Ghana and other African countries, majorly in south of the Sahara, which allows tractor owners to fully utilize their machines, while providing services to farmers, who can not afford their own tractors.

近两周（2019 年08 月26 日-2019 年09 月08 日），上证综指上涨3.53%、深证成指上涨4.92%、中小板指上涨5.33%、创业板指上涨4.75%，中证军工上涨10.24%。中信军工上涨9.98%，在29 个行业中涨幅排名第二。中信军工细分板中，航天航空上涨11.82%，兵器兵装上涨9.76%，其他军工上涨7.89%。

2019 年整个军工行业中报实现营业收入2286.45 亿，同比增长6.5%，实现归母净利润101.25 亿，同比增长18.71%，综合毛利率17.34%，同比去年提高了0.5pct，综合净利率4.43%，同比去年提高0.46pct。

高端军用红外以制冷型为主、低需求弹性、技术驱动，单兵+民品注重非制冷、高需求弹性、成本驱动。（1）技术：制冷与非制冷型探测器成像机理不同决定性能、成本、应用领域的差异；制冷型注重改进材料提高性能，非制冷型聚焦提高良率、缩小像元、改进封装等。（2）供求关系：高端军品对性能的强调决定低需求弹性，红外企业议价能力较强；民品+单兵装备市场需求弹性大，不断降成本是关键。（3）市场格局：参考美国，高端军品市场因技术+渠道壁垒竞争格局相对稳定；具备领先探测器、图像处理自制能力的企业，有望基于成本优势推出有价格竞争力的产品，并不断拓宽下游应用领域。

在投资策略上，建议重点关注景气度横向扩散、纵向传导以及央企资本运作回暖三条主线上的投资机会。1）在景气度横向扩散方面：建议首选符合“军方需求旺盛、新型号定型、量产预期将至”三大标准的整机公司，同时关注已经进入型号量产阶段并有望延续的相关公司。2）在景气度纵向传导方面：军工上游企业的技术和产品具有军民两用性，通过向民用转化可解决国产替代问题，重点关注“行业空间大、国产化率低、国产化刚需强劲”三大标准的相关行业，包括碳纤维、石英纤维、连接器、微波组件、电容器、红外探测器等领域。3）军工央企资产注入将是贯穿2019 年的投资主线之一，随着国家政策支持、人事调整到位和资产注入新路径的示范效应，军工央企资本运作有望持续回暖，建议重点关注“主业有支撑、注入空间大”的军工央企上市公司。