The aircraft industry is experiencing considerable demand for various technologically advanced equipment. The inclination curve of air travel is continuously climbing across geographies forcing the manufacturers of aircraft to provide an increased number of aircrafts such as fixed-wing and rotary-wing. On a global scenario, commercial air passenger is expected to maintain a continuous growth over the years, irrespective of numerous challenges faced by the commercial airlines such as aviation fuel price, and other monetary changes in various countries. However, these challenges are succeeded by the growth of several passengers across the world. In the aviation sector across the globe, the quest for advanced technology, robust systems, and rugged products are ever rising. The technological advancements in the field of aircraft are positively accepted by the developed countries as well as developing regions. The procurement of technologically advanced aircraft has bolstered over the years, flourishing the aircraft component manufacturing market.

The aircraft industry is experiencing considerable demand for various technologically advanced equipment. The inclination curve of air travel is continuously climbing across geographies forcing the manufacturers of aircraft to provide an increased number of aircrafts such as fixed-wing and rotary-wing. On a global scenario, commercial air passenger is expected to maintain a continuous growth over the years, irrespective of numerous challenges faced by the commercial airlines such as aviation fuel price, and other monetary changes in various countries. However, these challenges are succeeded by the growth of several passengers across the world. In the aviation sector across the globe, the quest for advanced technology, robust systems, and rugged products are ever rising. The technological advancements in the field of aircraft are positively accepted by the developed countries as well as developing regions. The procurement of technologically advanced aircraft has bolstered over the years, flourishing the aircraft component manufacturing market.

存量更新是本轮挖掘机复苏周期的重要支撑，但碍于行业缺乏对于存量结构的官方数据，使得对于旧机更新节奏的分析变得难以量化。我们提取了2019 年12 月份（截止日12 月4 日）挖掘机交易平台铁甲二手机的全部二手机挖掘机交易数据，共计5.4 万个，对此前的存量分析初步结论做进一步的验证，主要结论如下。

10 月，船市需求再度低迷，订单量环比显著回落，累计新接订单量为 2119 万载重吨，同比下降 25.6%；供给方面，造船完工量环比继续下降，同比涨幅较上月亦有所回落；手持订单量继续回落，同比降幅微幅收窄；新造船价格指数持续下行，仍未有见底趋势；出口需求有所回落，出口额同比降幅持续收窄；行业绩效水平保持向好，收入涨幅继续增加。

看好2020 年行业的高景气度。部分公司在2019 年三季报中已反映出较高景气度，2020 年是“十三五”末年，是装备交付的高峰期，且国产替代处于持续推进阶段，在装备交付及国产替代的综合影响下，预计行业景气度有望进一步提升。

年初至今，申万国防军工涨幅处于中上游，但跑输沪深300 指数8PCT；行情特点来看，一方面，大的板块性行情均有热点事件催化，仍然体现出高贝塔的特点；另一方面，个股表现也趋于分化，具备业绩支撑的标的走势独立、涨幅较好，且更加稳定。估值方面，板块整体处于底部区间，其中核心标的估值压力进一步消化，具备了较高的性价比。基金持仓方面，截至2019Q3，重仓持股比例进一步下滑，低配0.85%；从持仓个股来看，业绩趋势变化是基金参考的重要因素。