经济承压下，轨交基建逆周期逻辑仍存在，静待发力。铁路固定资产投资完成额三季度放缓，行业景气度未受影响，上市公司业绩已拐点向上。我们认为轨交板块上市公司的市值相对于业绩拐点有所滞后，存在一定预期差，四季度板块行情值得关注。我们建议关注中国中车中铁工业、中国通号、交控科技、康尼机电。 

本周中信国防军工指数涨跌幅-1.16%，位列 29 个一级板块涨跌幅第 21 位。国防军工三级行业中,国防军工、兵器兵装、航空军工、航天军工及其他军工均下跌，涨跌幅分别为-1.16%、-2.11%、-0.77%、-1.36%及-1.12%。 

公募基金 19Q3 持仓数据已公布，我们分析了军工板块相关数据，主要结论：1）基金持仓环比略降：19Q3 军工行业基金持仓比重为 0.72%，环比下降 0.16pct，行业排名 23/29，接近 2013Q3 水平。而 19Q2 基金持仓比重为 0.88%，相较于 19Q1 亦下降了 0.33pct。2）行业配比略升：19Q3 军工行业标准配置比例（即军工板块市值占全部板块总市值比重）为 1.68%，环比上升 0.18pct，行业排名 21/29。3）行业超配比例：19Q3 军工板块超配比例为-0.96%，环比下降 0.34pct。基金配置军工标的的仓位及超配比例已连续四个季度下降，同时超配比例处于 2013Q1 以来最低位。

10 月25 日，国务院国资委网站发布消息，经国务院批准，中国船舶工业集团（南船）与中国船舶重工集团（北船）实施联合重组。随后，中国船舶（600150）、中国重工（601989）等两船旗下上市公司均披露相关信息。据公告，中船工业与中船重工实施联合重组，新设中国船舶集团有限公司，由国务院国资委代表国务院履行出资人职责，中船工业和中船重工整体划入中国船舶集团。

近两周（2019 年10 月14 日-2019 年10 月25 日），上证综指下跌0.63%、深证成指下跌0.06%、中小板指上涨0.98%、创业板指上涨0.51%，中证军工下跌2.89%。中信军工下跌3.26%，在29 个行业中涨幅排名第27。中信军工细分板中，航天航空下跌3.16%，兵器兵装下跌4.26%，其他军工下跌3.18%。

Deliveries of firefighting aircraft are witnessing a significant increase, globally, with various countries taking deliveries of the aircraft. The rotary-wing segment is expected to register the highest CAGR, during the forecast period. The mobility, speed, and delivery capabilities of the rotary-wing aircraft, over fixed-wing, are very effective in supporting firefighters on the ground. Thus, their use is now being popularized, and their procurements are expected to increase in the coming years.

Offshore oil and gas sector had been hit hardest by the sustained low oil prices during 2014-2017, owing to higher breakeven prices of offshore production compared to onshore conventional and unconventional oil production. • The oil prices witnessed a substantial recovery during mid-2016 to mid-2018. This has helped in driving the onshore oil and gas activity. The deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore drilling activity, on the other hand, witnessed a further decline during the same period.

The aviation sector has been witnessing a significant growth in demand for jet fuel in the recent times, mainly due to the increasing number of air passengers, on account of cheaper airfare and an increasing number of routes. In 2017, civil aviation emitted around 859 million metric ton of CO2, accounting for around 2% of all human-induced CO2 emissions.

本次 70 周年国庆阅兵的规模之大、类型之全创历次国庆阅兵历史之最，编组之新、要素之全集中体现了国防建设强军成果。新装备的不断涌现，彰显了国家对行业的持续投入并保持稳步快速增长，行业整体维持高景气度，维持“增持”评级。