1月 9 - 13 日，食品饮料行业（-2.3%）跑输沪深 300 挃数（-0.8%）。平安观测食品饮料子板块中，调味品(+1.8%)、其他主题类(-0.5%)、乳制品（-2.0%）表现相对较好。海天大涨 7%带动调味品板块走高，伊利、茅台等低估值蓝筹整体表现较好，综合来看，似乎表明市场更偏好低估值稳定型品种，高估值品种压力较大。上周《全国奶业収展觃划（2016-2020 年）》収布，重点有三：一是通过觃划略高的生鲜乳产量增速与限定自给率下限来促迚上游养殖业収展；事是推迚乳品结构优化；三是推行婴幼儿奶粉注册制，加大监管力度，鼓励兼幵重组。政策上开始关注保护上游，但更重要是产业自身敁率的提升。相较上游，中游加工行业竞争格局更明朗也更稳定，看好仹额继续向伊利集中。婴幼儿奶粉注册制已预期良久，结合全面事胎敁果，贝因美这种基本面持续大幅恶化、股价低位公司可能有预期修正机会。 

The hot drinks packaging market in the US will post a CAGR of 2.93% during the forecast period. Coffee exports in the US are estimated to be worth $4 billion in 2016, with Americans consuming 400 million cups of coffee every day, making them the leading consumers of coffee in the world.

Flexible packaging products are made of easy-yielding plastic and paper that can easily change shape to accommodate the product being packaged. Shelf life plays a crucial role in flexible packaging for F&B. Vendors are implementing barrier technologies to improve resistance to air and moisture.

Juices are consumed due to their health benefits. Juices aid in digestion and provide better immunity. Fruit and vegetable mixed juices have the added advantage of having low sugar content and more nutrients than normal fresh juices. Due to this, consumers tend to include fruit and vegetable mixed juices in their daily diets.

Probiotics are microorganisms, which on consumption, exert a positive effect on the health of human beings and animals. Probiotics have been generating interest among many since the 1990s. Doctors today often prescribe probiotics to combat issues like digestive problems, bowel irregularities, and weak immune system. The most common types of microbes used at a commercial level in products and applications in the market are lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and bifidobacteria.

Wine is an alcoholic drink produced by the fermentation of grapes or other fruits. It has various health benefits, if consumed in adequate amounts. Wine is the third-largest segment of the global alcoholic drinks market. The wine market has become mature in Europe, especially in Germany, France, and Italy. However, APAC has the most potential for the manufacturers and is growing at a rapid rate.

中国单身经济正在崛起。中国正经历第四次单身潮，我们认为单身经济消费主力人群为 20-35 岁的白领女性人群。该单身人群收入水平高，消费意愿高，注重生活质量，没有下一代抚养压力且相对年轻，储蓄保险率较低，是优质的消费主体。定位该人群的商品将不仅仅关注品质和实用价值，并在美观、服务、心理价值方面突出。国际上单身家庭的增多对食品饮料的影响已有先例，如美国单人餐饮消费逐年提升、并推动了零食迅速增长。

2016 年“二胎”新生儿出生人口将超过 1750 万，高于预期，有专家预测 2017 年新生儿有望达到 2100 万人，预计 2017 年奶粉市场总体规模会有较大的增幅。我国 0-6 月婴幼儿纯母乳喂养率逐年走低，随着居民可支配收入提高，婴幼儿人均消费增加，再加上消费渠道升级，我国奶粉需求进入上升周期。 

2016年度策略报告中我们提出以下三大行业趋势，其中前两点得到充分印证，特别是可选消费板块逆势大涨，成为A股亮点。展望2017年，我们认为三大趋势仍将持续，第三点尤为重要。可选景气优于必需。必需消费品（如乳制品、肉制品、软饮料、中低端白酒）受宏观经济拖累，预计景气度持续低迷；可选消费品（高端白酒）因为调整时间早、幅度大，需求端已经企稳回升，预计17年量、价至少保持个位数增长，供给端份额向优质企业集中。

11 月份，受季节因素影响，酒、饮料和精制茶需求将有所下降，导致行业规模以上企业增加值增速小幅回落，食品制造业和农副食 品加工业增加值总体有望平稳略升。同时，三大子行业投资额将平稳增长，但增速或有小幅下滑。