Growing demand for ethanolamine from end-user industries, such as oil & gas, cosmetics, and others, are the key factors expected to significantly drive the growth of the North America ethanolamine market. Furthermore, promising growth in the surfactants industry of North America is also expected to augment the market growth. However, volatility in prices of raw material associated with ethanolamine will restrain the market growth. The impact of the driving factors is expected to surpass that of the restraints. Hence, the market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2018 to 2025. The presence of untapped markets in developing nations is expected to provide new opportunities for the key players.

回顾18 年，环保持续高压加速化工行业落后产能持续出清，需求基本稳定，大部分子行业供需格局紧平衡。成本端受益油价中枢上移，成本支撑较强，化工品价格持续上涨带动营收业绩高速增长。三季度单季来看，需求疲弱压力显现，价格上行动力不足，呈现出量价增长双弱的情形。重点跟踪的化工产品中，70%三季度均价同比提高，59%环比进一步提高。

The global packaging adhesives market has been segmented on the basis of technology, application, and region. In terms of technology, the market has been segmented into the divisions of water-based, solvent-based, hot melt, and others. Water-based is anticipated to be the fastest growing segment. Its high growth rate is on account of the increasing demand for dairy & food products dispatched via vending machines and carbonated beverages.

Petroleum resins market has been segmented on the basis of product, applications, end-use and regions. petroleum resins are made up of naphtha and are of mainly four types, C5 resins, C9 resins, copolymerization of C5/C9 resins and the hydrogenated resins. These resins are used as a tacking agent in various applications including rubber compounding, paints, printing inks, adhesives, tapes and labels. The major end-use industry of the petroleum resins include construction, automotive, consumer goods, and packaging.

Polyvinyl butyral (PVB) market has been segmented on the basis of application and region. Key raw materials utilized for manufacturing polyvinyl butyral include vinyl acetate monomers (VAM), polyvinyl alcohol, and butyraldehyde. PVB resins are utilized in applications requiring flexibility, strong binding, optical clarity, toughness and adhesion to differentiated surfaces. Key applications of PVB includes films & sheets, paints & coatings, adhesives and others. Key end-uses of PVB films & sheets include automotive, photovoltaic, and construction. Other major applications of PVB are printing inks, packaging, lacquers, varnishes and binders.

The reverse osmosis membrane is a semipermeable separating laminate used in purification of water from contaminants and excess of dissolve salts. Reverse osmosis removes many types of dissolved and suspended species from water, including bacteria, and is used in both industrial processes and the production of potable water. The result is that the solute is retained on the pressurized side of the membrane, and the pure solvent is allowed to pass to the other side. The reverse osmosis system does not require heat for the process to be performed, hence aids in conservation of energy. The report covers various types of materials, filter modules, and applications of the reverse osmosis membrane market. In addition, the report has been analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA region.

整体结论：化工行业2019年景气预计将震荡下行，主要下游增速放缓，供给端新增产能提速。2018年里，我国经济形势震荡，中国化工产品价格指数自2018年9月一路下滑，结束两年来的上涨，开始进入下行周期。化工行业主要下游需求放缓，尤其是地产行业较为低迷，房屋竣工面积累计同比在2017年11月开始转负，2018年大幅下滑，商品房销售速度放缓；我国汽车月销量当月同比在2018年7月转负，出现下降；空调月销量自2018年7月起下滑，纺织服装零售额低速增长，并未形成明显需求拉动。

Russian petrochemicals output grew at a faster rate than industrial growth in 2017. Russian chemicals output grew 4.3% in 2017, largely due to growth in fertilizer, according to Rosstat data. Ethylene output rose 2.5% to 2.86mn tonnes, benzene grew 4.2% to 1.36mn tonnes, caustic soda was up 6.1% to 1.24mn tonnes and mineral fertilizer production grew 8.2% to 22.52mn tonnes. In contrast, industrial growth was just 1.8%. Higher oil prices are spurring the domestic economy following several years of stagnation, but this trend has also hiked naphtha prices and raised the cost of production at a time when markets have been limited by US and EU sanctions.

2018年初截至11月7日申万化工指数下跌26.4%，跑输沪深300指数约6.3个百分点。2018年初截至11月7日石油化工、化学纤维、化学制品、橡胶、化学原料、塑料子行业均表现为下跌，跌幅分别为11%、21%、27%、29%、33%、35%。

我们的投资主线可以分为传统和新材料两条主线，传统行业中我们建议关注煤化工（尿素、PVA）、磷肥、高倍甜味剂等细分行业，新材料行业中建议关注胶粘剂、锂电材料（正极、隔膜、铝塑膜等）、 LED 应用、尾气净化材料等。基于行业整体现状，我们维持基础化工行业“中性”评级。