供应超预期增加、需求不及预期，四季度原油价格迎来大幅下跌，布油一度跌破 60 美元大关，OPEC+达成新减产协议，原油价格有望回升至今年上半年水平；煤炭价格维持高位震荡、明年下行压力较大；冬季北美天然气价格短期上行。综合来看，成本端对化工产品价格支撑的逻辑正在不断弱化。

Glycol ethers are liquids that combine the solubility characteristics of ethers and alcohols since both functional groups are present in the molecule. They are therefore widely used in solvent applications, including formulations such as paints, inks and cleaning fluids. Non-solvent applications include uses as anti-icing agents in jet fuel, hydraulic system fluids and as chemical intermediaries.

Isoprene market has been segmented on the basis of type, applications, end-use and regions. Isoprene made from polymer grade and chemical grade find their application in polyisoprene, isobutylene-isoprene rubber, styrene-isoprene styrene and specialty chemicals including epoxy hardeners, vitamins, specialty isoprenic elastomers, agrochemicals, flavors and fragrances, and pharmaceuticals. The end-uses for the isoprene market are medical, coatings, tires, sealants, adhesives, footwear, bitumen modification, electronics, wire and cables, polymer modification, industrial products, building and construction and automotive (non-tires).

The market study for silicone is segmented on the basis of product, application and region. In terms of product, the silicone industry is segmented into four levels including fluids, gels, resin, elastomers and other products. Furthermore, we have drilled down the silicone fluids product segment into modified and straight ones. The market study for silicone elastomers is further segmented into high temperature vulcanized (HTV), Room temperature vulcanized (RTV) and liquid silicone rubber (LSR). We have covered the silicone based products including, wax, caulks and emulsions under the other product segments. We have covered the quantitative analysis on silicone market in major applications including, electrical & electronics, transportation, construction, personal care & pharmaceuticals, and textile industries. Furthermore, we have covered the use of silicone in food & beverage, oil & gas, chemicals, and consumer goods sectors only.

10 月份，化工行业运行依旧缓慢，工业增加值增速与上月持平；行业营收和利润继续增长，同比增速均有所放缓，且放缓幅度趋大。

The automotive glass market has been segmented on the basis of product, application, enduse, and vehicle type. On the basis of product, the market has been segmented into laminated glass, tempered glass, and others. Other glasses include insulated glass and complex glass compositions used for special automotive. On the basis of application, the market has been segmented as windscreen, backlite, and sidelite. On the basis of end-use, the market has been segmented as OEM and ARG. On the basis of vehicle type, the market has been segmented as passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles.

近期部分地区的监管部门出台了对停产整顿企业验收复产的相关文件，受环保限产的部分农化产能目前已逐步复产，2018 年1-10 月份化学农药原药产量累计同比增速达到0.5%，较1-9 月份的-13%大幅提升13.5 个百分点。同时，主要原药企业在农药行业迎来景气周期背景下，积极布局，新建产能将陆续投放。因此，我们方正化工认为，未来原药供给将迎来增长期。

根据百川资讯统计，2017年我国共生产草甘膦50.48万吨，2016年为50.51万吨，产量基本持平，以年平均有效产能78万吨计算（（年初有效产能+年末有效产能）/2），行业平均开工率达到64.7%。其中，2017年大厂产量为43万吨，小厂产量为7.5万吨，2016年大厂与小厂产量分别为44.6万吨和5.9万吨，小厂的产量占比由2016年的11.7%提高到2017年的14.9%，也验证了行业景气上行周期中，小厂出货量及开工率均在上行。

固定资产投资增速转正，内忧外患需求增速放缓。原油供需与博弈间需求平衡点。

质地优良的成长股，受益于上游基础原材料价格回落以及行业格局的优化，成长性将进一步凸显，重点推荐电子化学品板块，以及自下而上发掘的中旗股份等优质标的。周期股虽然部分产品或存景气度下行风险，但农化、炼化等细分领域依然具有投资机会。此外，磷矿石及萤石等具有稀缺资源属性的子行业，也具备价值重估的长期逻辑，值得持续关注。