3Q 收入承压明显，成本压力有所缓解，4Q 盈利改善可期。受国内疫 情反复、地产端压力传导叠加海外需求放缓影响，3Q 家居行业内外销收入 均显著放缓，尤其外销收入同比出现下降，整体家居板块收入端承压明显， 但分化也在延续，欧派、索菲亚等头部企业内销增长仍具韧性。而利润端， 在成本压力逐步缓解的情况下，3Q 家居板块整体毛利率环比有所改善，其 中成品家居板块受益于汇兑收益，3Q 利润表现更为优异。展望4Q，收入端 压力犹存，但在原材料成本压力缓解、部分产品提价落地叠加汇兑收益延续 的情况下，4Q 重点关注盈利改善机会。

Binding of printed sheets, e.g. into books, brochures, magazines, catalogues etc., by folding, assembling, stitching, glueing, collating, basting, adhesive binding, trimming, gold stamping Composition, typesetting, phototypesetting, pre-press data input including scanning and optical character recognition, electronic make-up Plate-making services including imagesetting and plate-setting (for the printing processes letterpress and offset) Engraving or etching of cylinders for gravure Plate processes direct to plate (also photopolymer plates) Preparation of plates and dies for relief stamping or printing Production of proofs Artistic work including preparation of litho stones and prepared woodblocks Production of reprographic products Design of printing products e.g. sketches, layouts, dummies etc. Other graphic activities such as die-sinking or die-stamping, Braille copying, punching and drilling, embossing, varnishing and laminating, collating and insetting, creasing

With major consumer-oriented manufacturers gradually shifting to customized packaging to enhance shelf-visibility, in turn, attracting customers, the adoption of digital printing became vital. The beverage company, Coca-Cola, had been an early adopter for such a system and launched multiple campaigns based on digitally printed, highly-customized labels. There is an increased demand for digital prints wrapped on the glass fronts of office buildings, and huge digitally printed banners displayed down the sides of buildings. The automotive industry has also become a major part of the digital advertising world, with cars, buses, vans, and trailers fully wrapped with digital prints.

Binding of printed sheets, e.g. into books, brochures, magazines, catalogues etc., by folding, assembling, stitching, glueing, collating, basting, adhesive binding, trimming, gold stamping Composition, typesetting, phototypesetting, pre-press data input including scanning and optical character recognition, electronic make-up Plate-making services including imagesetting and plate-setting (for the printing processes letterpress and offset) Engraving or etching of cylinders for gravure Plate processes direct to plate (also photopolymer plates) Preparation of plates and dies for relief stamping or printing Production of proofs Artistic work including preparation of litho stones and prepared woodblocks Production of reprographic products Design of printing products e.g. sketches, layouts, dummies etc. Other graphic activities such as die-sinking or die-stamping, Braille copying, punching and drilling, embossing, varnishing and laminating, collating and insetting, creasing

本周HTI 跟踪的六类消费品中，成本指数集体下行，期货端跌幅超 现货端。具体来看，本周包材除纸浆期货上涨1.42%以外，其余多 数下跌，其中铝材现货、期货下跌3.14%/0.61%，塑料现货、期货 下跌3.55%/6.24%，玻璃期货回落1.85%；直接原材料部分，蔬菜 价格大跌，幅度达8.29%，棕榈油价格跌幅较上周明显扩大，现 货、期货分别下跌5.44%和3.97%，鸡肉价格跌超1%，其余包括大 麦、白糖现货，以及大米、大豆和白糖期货涨幅都在1%以内。能 源价格方面，布油指数录得小幅回落， 现货、期货分别下跌 2.39%/2.74%。

轻工制造行业中报综述：营收稳增、盈利同比下降但环比已现改善。 我们选取112 个A 股轻工制造行业上市公司为样本进行季度分析， 1H22 轻工板块营收同比+7.01%，单Q2 营收同比+6.46%，2022 年 以来Q1-Q2 收入增速逐步趋稳；轻工板块归母净利1H22 同比- 40.56%，单Q2 同比-35.43%，增速环比Q1+10.8pct。利润率方面， 虽同比仍有回落， 但环比已现改善，Q2 轻工板块整体毛利率 20.8%，同比-4.2pct、环比+0.83pct；整体归母净利率5.90%，同比- 3.35pct，环比+1.14pct。市场表现来看，轻工制造板块表现略逊于市 场，上半年沪深300 指数上涨1.44%，轻工制造行业指数上涨 1.18%。基金持仓方面，二季度末轻工制造板块持仓占比0.85%，较 Q1 小幅提升0.08pct，配置子板块优选家居，持仓总市值也有所增 长。

从年初开始我们即关注出口板块，两篇报告中阐述了我们对今年部分出口标的仍保有较为乐观的期待（轻 工板块出口专题一：中国制造乘风出海，聚焦优质成长企业；轻工板块出口专题二：需求分化，布局高景气+ 高弹性标的）。我们认为虽然在美国加息的确定性下，需求将出现分化，但部分标的仍值得关注，原因：1）刚 需消费及户外等新兴消费的需求受影响较小；2）有产能议价力和制造韧性的品类受影响较小，甚至可能受益于 美国劳动力缺口而带来的产能转移趋势；3）在汇率贬值和原材料下行的情况下，盈利能力提升的想象空间大。 从目前来看，部分出口标的营收韧性确实超预期。 展望Q4，上述出口标的订单仍然充裕，依然有望保持较为不错的收入增速，而在成本下行和汇率的共同作用 下，盈利弹性也有望持续，全年业绩或较为亮眼，继续推荐家联科技和嘉益股份。展望明年，需要警惕在业绩 高基数和欧美需求进一步衰退影响下报表端承压的可能性。

家居需求有望边际回暖，利润有望修复，推荐成品及定制家居行业龙头：1）家 居板块，地产销售数据环比回暖，终端疫情有所缓解，终端渠道的信心有望回 补并加速扩张，部分原材料价格回落趋势下，首推韧性更强的行业龙头；2）工 业纸领域，二季度浆价维持高位，但成本传导有限，我们预计木浆自给率较高 的企业或表现较好；3）生活用纸及个护赛道，必需消费品需求仍相对稳定，二 季度供应链及物流恐受疫情影响，看好疫情企稳后龙头的业绩修复；4）印刷包 装板块，二季度纸价小幅上涨，预计纸包装行业盈利整体保持平稳；5）文具办 公领域，二季度疫情将继续影响文具终端销售，但长期看预计需求仍将维持平 稳增长，集采业务预计持续发力；6）出口制造方面，贸易环境有望缓和、人民 币贬值，出口业务占比相对较高的企业，业绩修复弹性相对明显。

6 月A 股显著回暖，家居板块拉动轻工板块继续上涨。A 股6 月显著回暖， 持续上涨；港股6 月小幅上行；美股6 月继续下行。A 股轻工制造板块略强 于大盘，主要系家居板块受地产回暖拉动涨幅较大；港股轻工制造指数（中 信）显著强于恒生指数和港股非必须性消费；美股非必须消费品较弱。

家居建材零售：专业家居建材卖场仍主导，数字化及高频消费赋能成主 流。据Euromonitor 统计的零售数据，当前我国室内家居产品销售渠道 结构中，家居装饰装修等专业渠道占比接近70%。我们认为未来在标准 化程度低、交付对人工依赖度较高的家居家装行业，单品类厂商或零售 商在数据积累与应用方面具有一定局限，而线下专业渠道商尤其是大型 连锁类家居卖场凭借一站式多品类覆盖与海量数据支撑将持续占据家 居零售主导。建议关注数字化转型领先的居然之家、美凯龙。