本周各大纸种需求恢复态势良好，包装纸价格继续上行，同时白卡纸和文化纸价格均止跌企稳、略有上涨。我们认为，旺季前需求有所改善、小厂在接近现金成本的低纸价下被迫减产，有助于行业去库存，为旺季做好准备。我们预期，下半年旺季包装纸、文化纸纸价均有望随着供需面修复进一步向好，造纸板块估值有望迎来修复。

本周轻工板块上涨，家具板块回调。本周，上证综指上涨2.75%，轻工制造指数上涨2.15%，跑输上证综指0.6%，在申万28 个版块中排名第18。轻工制造板块细分行业涨跌幅由高到低分别为：包装印刷Ⅱ（+4.69%）、造纸Ⅱ（+4.22%）、家用轻工Ⅱ（-0.04%）。上周板块成交量上升1685.43 万手，周环比41.12%。个股方面，浙江永强（+24.74%）、吉宏股份（+24.43%）、*ST 赫美（+23.89%）涨幅靠前；志邦家居（-16.09%）、金牌厨柜（-13.6%）、皮阿诺（-9.65%）跌幅靠前。

基建预期加码叠加部分省份地产政策放松，地产后周期行业有望受益；随着竣工数据改善叠加精装市场红利，工程市场将迎来快速发展，市场份额逐步向龙头集中。疫情对家具行业影响正在逐步减小，随着刚需逐步释放，行业有望重拾增长预期。

The growth of the print label market is augmented by the rapid rise of digital print technology that has made the print label market more sophisticated and increased the adoption of digital print labels, Their versatility and flexibility, combined with the high graphics standards, are the key growth features. Many organizations like Nilpeter, Xeikon and Bobst Firenze, among others, believe that digitally printed label is suited to meet the demands of the market and has an added advantage over traditional printing technologies. Digital technology has met the multiple requirements of various end-user industries in makin g a ttractive la bel designs to encourage potential consumers to make purchases. The integration of digital technology with the existing label printing technique is expected to bring a huge change to all the small-scale, as well as large-scale sectors, improving the overall market. The growth of the print label market is augmented by the rapid rise of digital print technology that has made the print label market more sophisticated and increased the adoption of digital print labels, Their versatility and flexibility, combined with the high graphics standards, are the key growth features.

Domestic players have leading positions in the paper manufacturing sector. Most of the companies are controlled by private capital and some are traded on a regulated market. In order to increase their market competitiveness, these companies have to optimise their input costs. This includes to generate their own electricity and import low-cost raw materials. The Chinese paper manufacturing sector has high entry barriers, because the major players on the market rely on economies of scale, which makes the companies’ capital outlays and fixed costs high. The Chinese government policy also contributes to high entry barriers, with the rising level of regulation related to climate change and energy efficiency, affecting the paper and paperboard production.

Smart labels are becoming one of the most popular technologies across the retail, healthcare, and logistics sectors, among others, and are viewed as an ideal means to achieve greater efficiencies and profitability, while providing the authenticity of an item and its traceability from the warehouse to the distribution center throughout the supply chain. These labels are used as a tool to enable smart supply chains and are also playing a vital role in the marketing and advertising of consumer products, which can be achieved through the provision of product information, as well as the analysis of consumer buying patterns that can be accessed from the data collected by these labels. Cost cutting over the supply chain, to be closer to the nearest level of efficiency, by manufacturers, has been a critical factor that has augmented the demand and prompted the proactive adoption of these solutions to gain the first mover advantage in the individual end-user industry.

实力雄厚的地产头部企业近年来着力布局产业链上游。地产公司通过 入股、建立家居建材集采平台、共建产业园等多种方式与上游To B 龙 头公司开展深度合作。

轻工行业综述：2019 年轻工行业实现营收 4956.92 亿元，同比增长 2.40%；实现归母净利润220.71 亿元，同比增长8.29%，营收增速于 2019Q2 达到低点后上升；归母净利润增速则逐季有所上升。2020Q1 受疫情影响明显，营收下滑15.78%，归母净利润下滑35.48%。

2019 年以来轻工制造行业面临的外部环境不确定性较大，不论是中美贸易争端还是新冠疫情带来的外部环境的不确定性，均短期内表现为下游需求较大变化，行业内上市公司业绩短期表现为下滑。但是随着贸易环境的改善，2019 年下半年轻工制造行业整体业绩逐季好转，行业整体仍保持韧性。

轻工板块2019 年营收同比增长4%至5019 亿元，归母净利润同比下滑4%至284 亿元，利润下滑一方面系造纸行业景气下行、企业利润普遍大幅下滑所致，另一方面系东方金钰等企业计提商誉减值损失影响。2020Q1 轻工板块实现营收953 亿元，同比下滑16%，实现归母净利润45 亿元，同比下滑27%。重点推荐：1）地产竣工回暖+精装房放量下工装主线标的以及经营稳健、抗风险能力强的龙头企业，重点推荐帝欧家居、江山欧派、欧派家居、顾家家居；2）需求稳健的必选消费品，重点推荐中顺洁柔、齐心集团、晨光文具。