受业绩拖累，20 年以来钢铁、采掘行业表现不佳。我们预计 20H2 钢价呈 现震荡行情、煤炭景气度或回升：1）钢铁供需两旺，供给端实际产能或扩 张，需求端基建投资走强、汽车产销恢复或带动钢材、特钢需求，故钢价 或呈震荡行情，维持“增持”评级；2）用电需求持续恢复，而水电或同比 下行、进口煤政策趋严，动力煤供需状态改善，叠加港口、电厂库存低于 去年，我们对动力煤价不悲观；焦炭主产区去产能、限产频发，焦炭价格 或上行，维持“中性”评级。个股层面建议选择受益于行业景气回升龙头， 推荐宝钢股份、陕西煤业，关注中国神华（未覆盖）。

5 月基建投资延续回升，当月同比 10.8%。5 月新增专项债 1.14 万亿， 积极财政持续发力，推动基建投资持续回升。-5 月基础设施建设投资累计 同比-3.31%，前值-8.78%；不含电力的基础设施建设投资累计同比-6.3%， 前值-11.8%。测算 5 月份基建投资当月增速则回升转正至 10.8%，不含电 力基础设施投资当月同比增速回升转正至 8.4%。

This report presents a detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and thorough study of the global die casting machines market based on type, material, end-user, and region. The market segmentation on the basis of type includes hot-chamber die casting machine, cold-chamber die casting machine, and gravity die-casting machine. By material, it is segmented into zinc, magnesium, aluminum, and others. Others includes copper, brass, lead, tin, and other alloys. In terms of end-user, it is divided into transportation, mechanical & manufacturing equipment, building & construction, and others. Others include medical device, telecom, electrical, and furniture industry. The report also highlights regional trends for North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and LAMEA (Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa). It further provides insights on the drivers, restraints, and opportunities to understand the dynamics and potential of the die casting machines market. Furthermore, the report provides information about the strategies adopted by the key players to sustain the competition and increase their market shares. Buhler AG, Dynacast International, Inc., Norican Global A/S, and Toshiba Machine Co., Ltd. are some of the major players discussed in the report.

2019 年，钢铁行业结束 2016 年以来的利润上行周期，进入下行拐点。供给放 量及铁矿石涨价的双重影响下，2019 年全年钢铁行业毛利震荡回落，2019 年 分季度毛利分别为 813 元/吨、801 元/吨、480 元/吨和 681 元/吨。行业大势 下，普钢公司业绩难有表现，2019 年全年，23 家普钢企业利润总额合计 630.95 亿元，同比减少 583.26 亿元；扣非后净利为 598.40 亿元，同比降低 567.56 亿元。个股中，华菱钢铁、新兴铸管、南钢股份等钢企得益于产品结构，利润 降幅小于行业平均水平；酒钢宏兴受益于自产矿占比高，成本端受铁矿石涨价 影响较小，2019 年盈利实现逆势正增长。

短期稳就业，固定资产投资内生动力足、仍将是重要发力点。4 月国内固 定投资同比增速回升转正至 0.8%，社会消费零售同比-7.5%，出口金额同 比 3.5%，城镇调查失业率环比上升 0.1 个百分点。围绕“六稳、六保”，政 策不断发力，投资内生动力足、回升较快，但消费回升力度低于投资。短 期出口有下行压力，稳就业下投资仍将是重要发力点。

进退之间，盈利回归合理：2019 年钢铁行业基本面演绎基本全年符合我们 年初投资策略《进退之间》，需求向前，地产投资强势，基建弱复苏；供给 后退，环保边际放松后，低成本产能得以释放，进退之间行业盈利逐步回 归合理水平。在此行业大环境之下，成材价格在供需博弈间表现弱势，而 原料端受巴西矿难催化暴涨，即使下半年重新回落，全年矿价中枢也同比 大幅拉升，购销差价收窄，钢厂利润被严重侵蚀。

上周银行板块涨 0.4%，较大幅度跑输市场。上周市场波动较大，板块 表现主要受较为悲观的基本面预期压制，特别是银行让利实体的大环 境下投资者对今年银行业绩有所担心。上周五公布了一季度社融数据， 大超投资者预期，央行在数据发布后召开新闻发布会就市场关心的重 点问题进行交流。我们将结合货币政策传导机制分析展望后续实体流 动性和银行股的表现。

疫情不改新能源汽车需求增长长期趋势，中国率先从疫情中恢复，随着 国家加大新基建的政策决心，我们认为中国国内新能源汽车的需求增长 非常值得期待，于此同时欧洲国家 1 季度新能源汽车销量也不乏亮眼之 处，显示新能源汽车需求长期增长逻辑稳固，而新能源汽车动力电池核 心部件高端锂电铜箔供给从长期来看供求格局好，尤其是 6μm 铜箔企 业具备良好的中长期配置价值。

 钴盐价格持续回落。本周国内钴盐价格延续前两周的回落节奏，其 中氯化钴（≥24.2%）价格下跌 3 元/千克，跌幅 4.7%；硫酸钴（≥ 20.5%）价格下跌 4 元/千克，跌幅 7.4%；氧化钴（≥72%）价格下 跌 3 元/千克，跌幅 1.5%；四氧化三钴（≥72%）价格下跌 6 元/千 克，跌幅 2.9%。2 月国内四氧化三钴产量约在 3600 吨左右，环比 减少 10%，同比减少 14.29%；硫酸钴产量约为 1200 金属吨，环比 下滑 7.69%，同比下滑 42.85%；四氧化三钴产量约在 3600 吨左右， 环比减少 10%，同比减少 14.29%。受疫情影响，预计 3 月份国内产 量仍将维持当前水平。

Aluminum is an electronegative metal, which possesses strong affinity for oxygen. It is the sixth most ductile and second most malleable metal present on earth. It is exceptionally light having 2.7g/ccm density is resistant to dust, possesses high degree of conductivity, and exhibits significant strength when alloyed. It is widely used in food & packaging and pharmaceutical industries, as it is nontoxic in nature, preserves food for prolonged times, and inhibits growth of microorganisms. It is a good electrical conductor, and thus is used frequently in electrical transmission lines. In addition, it is used as a primary propellant for solid rocket booster motor in space shuttle due to its high volumetric energy density. Corrosion resistance, reflectivity, and recyclability are other characteristics of aluminum, which makes it a favorable choice for various industrial applications. The market is segmented into grades, end user industry, processing method, and region. Based on grades, it is categorized into series 1, series 2, series 3, series 4, series 5, series 6, series 7, and series 8. Based on end user, it is classified into transport, building & construction, electrical engineering, consumer goods, foil & packaging, machinery & equipment, and others (solar panel nanotechnology and aluminum air batteries). The processing method segment is divided into flat rolled, castings, extrusions, forgings, pigments & powder, and rod & bar. Based on region, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, and LAMEA.