轻工制造板块跑输大盘，估值维持稳定。2024 年初至 4 月 30 日，轻工制造行业指数下滑 7%，同期沪深 300 上涨 5%，板块走势跑输大盘；按二级分类来看，造纸是唯一上涨的子板块。与 2024 年初相比，截至 4 月 30 日，轻工制造行业估值水平维持稳定，但逊色于同期沪深 300 估值涨幅；按二级分类来看，共有 3 个子板块估值提升，增幅由大到小分别是个护用品、文娱用品、家居用品。

家居：国常会对地产积极定调，关注 315 对 Q1 订单的巩固更新：1）近期地产端积极表态与降息措施陆续催化，后续楼市成交有望企稳；2）本轮 315 大促延续 23Q4 以来的让利力度，定制与成品配套融合趋势更为显著。投资建议：1）消费趋于理性，质价比至关重要，看好成本费用管控能力突出的龙头长期取胜，持续看好索菲亚、志邦家居、欧派家居、江山欧派等龙头；2）重视地产交易结构变化后的翻新市场占比提升，持续看好顾家家居、敏华控股、喜临门、慕思股份、瑞尔特、好太太等龙头；3）关注龙头分红价值，如敏华控股、索菲亚、慕思股份、顾家家居等。

The global industry is characterized by the presence of a few established players and new entrants. Many big players are increasing their focus on the growing trends of mattresses. Players in this industry are diversifying the service offering to maintain their market share. For instance, In February 2023, Hästens Ltd, a Swedish mattress manufacturer, launched a new line under the dremar brand. The drear mattress, featuring woven fabric upholstery, was launched in four colors: Phantom Charcoal, Natural Shale, Black Shadow, and Traditional Blue.

House wraps are types of fabric, paper, or board materials that cover the exterior sheathing of house walls and protect the wall exteriors.

Ergonomic chairs are designed to help users sit comfortably for extended periods while working. These chairs are more comfortable than standard chairs and allow users to customize the fit to their body or sitting preferences. They aid in increasing productivity and job satisfaction. Ergonomic chairs help to reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injuries such as back pain. These also help to relieve back pain by promoting proper posture and hip and pelvic alignment. It reduces the need for repetitive trunk flexion by preventing slouching and forward head posture.

Food display cabinets refer to food service equipment used for the storing and display of food items. They are used to keep food items at optimal temperatures.

Decorative paper refers to a type of paper that is specifically designed and manufactured for aesthetic purposes. It is used in various applications such as crafting, scrapbooking, gift wrapping, and artistic projects. Decorative paper comes in a wide array of colors, patterns, and textures to suit different preferences and design needs.

Decking is a flat or profiled surface that is designed as a structure to be deployed for residential and commercial applications.

一些企业转移到东南亚或中美洲，主要是考虑比较利益和接近市场。凭借完善的供应链、低人工成本以及成熟的生产工艺优势，我国家居出口行业自改革开放以来迅速成长。时至今日，我国已成为全球领先的家居生产国和出口国，期间诞生了不少以出口为主要业务的家居企业，沙发、床垫、办公家居等为出口核心品类。 2019 年，美国对 2000 亿美元中国输美商品加征 25%关税，涉及诸多家居产品。受此影响，家居企业开启了从产品出海到产能出海的转变，以供应链外迁应对高关税。

轻工作为传统制造业，一方面：伴随以地产链为代表的部分行业渐进成熟期，在当前政策预期下需求难有较大弹性；另一方面：过去三年作为资本开支大年，诸如造纸等行业存在产能过剩等问题，且在未来较长一段时间产能持续去化；在此背景下，行业投资从过去“买赛道”的β式投资变成对好公司的精耕细研，当行业的毛利率被供需格局压制的背景下，优秀的公司的成本管控、组织效能等竞争要素提到更加重要的高度，关注龙一的提估值机会。