把握种业、后周期拐点，优选生猪养殖龙头。围绕两大向上拐点，我们认为种 子行业及猪价后周期板块（白鸡、饲料、动保）具备明显的板块性机会，积 极推荐大北农、隆平高科、登海种业、苏垦农发、圣农发展、海大集团等， 建议关注瑞普生物、普莱柯等。而优质猪企仍存个股成长机会，可优选布局， 继续推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧。

安全主线：种业自主，护航国家安全。1）粮食：二十大报告将“粮食安全”依然放在重要位置，表现出其对人民生活的重要意义。国内饲料粮依然面临着缺口问题，而在今年东北天气冲击、饲用需求恢复下，玉米缺口预计扩大至2500 万吨，补足缺口的手段正在逐步减少，提升玉米种植效率迫在眉睫。2）种子：经历政策的陆续修订，国内转基因涉及的重要法规基本完善，转基因种子静待商业化的最后一块拼图“品种审定”即可开启制种和销售，以最快进度计，若今年品种审定名单可以获批，种企将在23-24 年迎来业绩爆发期，种企经营格局有望迎来革命性变化。3）白鸡：长期以来， 我国白羽肉鸡种源一直依赖进口，而受到今年以来的海外禽流感冲击，白鸡种源自主可控再度提上日程，2021 年我国审定通过3 个快大型白羽肉鸡品种，其中圣泽901 产能储备充分，2022 年底父母代产能将突破1750 万套，外部不确定性有望提振国产品种推广速度，白鸡种源有望实现国产替代。

A goat is one of the most common providers of milk and meat for humans. Both in composition and nutritional qualities, goat milk varies from cow and human milk. Several bioactive chemicals found in goat milk and other goat-derived products may be beneficial to people suffering from a range of chronic conditions. Several peptides, fats, and oligosaccharides found in goat's milk have been shown to be beneficial in the treatment of cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders, neurological degeneration, and intestinal health. They've also been demonstrated to have cancerpreventive qualities. Goat milk is especially suggested for newborns, elderly persons, and people recovering from illness due to its possible health advantages. The biological activities of goat products as well as the effects of peptides, lipids, and oligosaccharides found in goat milk on pathogenic bacteria, as well as their capacity to control immunological, gastrointestinal, hormonal, and neurological responses in humans, are the key focus.

Modern farming and gardening activities have effectively replaced all traditional farming practices. The use of sophisticated farming implements boosts overall crop production, not only in quantity but also in quality. These implements are used in conventional farming and gardening activities, such as tilling and cultivating. Both farming and gardening strategies are simple but effective, resulting in higher yields. Farmers prefer machinery to hard labor and use tillers and cultivators for different farming tasks. Garden tillers are becoming more popular as the landscaping business across the developed economies is expanding significantly.

Over the years, there has been a growing demand for highperformance lubricants for the smooth functioning of industrial machines. Consumer awareness and government regulation are also growing every year. Hence, manufacturers are focusing on elevating the quality of lubricants with the best possible technology and feedstock. Consumers are gradually becoming more conscious of the hygiene and the safety of packaged products they consume. Therefore, using food-grade lubricants is one of the most effective methods of enriching machine performance while preventing the product from microbial contamination. Food-grade lubricants are parts of industrial lubricants used in industrial machines to minimize the wear and tear caused by corrosion, rust, friction, and oxidative stability. Food-grade lubricants are products added to hydraulic oil, gear oil, conveyor belts, compressor oil, joints, bearings, and other food processing plants to ensure a safe supply of food and other products. Food-grade lubricants are widely used in the manufacturing equipment of food and beverages, food packaging, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and animal feed as they are:

Baited insect traps play an instrumental role in detecting undiscovered infestations in storage warehouses and goods, surveying and monitoring infestation levels, and determining catch thresholds for quick remedial actions as part of an effective pest management strategy. These insect traps can control infestations of social insects such as cockroaches, ants, moths, flies, and bed bugs. Insect baits are prepared using food attractants mixed with either an insect growth regulator (IGR) or insecticide. Also, some baits include chemical compounds that are identical to volatiles released by decomposed fruits or animals.

The present scenario is driving vendors to change and refine their unique value propositions to achieve a strong market presence. Some key players in the agricultural lubricants market include Shell, Valvoline, BP, and others. There exists stiff competition among these players in the market. Additionally, the market is highly competitive and is prone to be affected by volatility in the general business and economic environment.

美国市场：百年沉淀，成就全球宠物龙头市场。美国宠物行业经历工业化推动下 的萌芽期（1900-1980）、经济增长以及人均可支配收入增加支撑下的快速成长 期（1980-2000）、逐渐进入到需求持续增长伴随消费升级的稳健成长期（2000 年至今），2021 年美国养宠家庭渗透率高达70%。2021 年美国宠物市场规模达 1236亿美元（yoy+19.31%），以40.2%份额位居全球首位。①宠物食品市场： 宠物行业第一大细分市场，2021 年市场规模达到500 亿美元，2017-2021 年 CAGR 15.48%。且市场集中程度较高，龙头内生外延双轮发展抢占市场，马太 效应持续加强，玛氏、雀巢两大龙头2021 年CR2 达71%。②宠物医疗市场：宠 物行业第二大细分市场，其中动保产品存在高垄断性，硕腾、默沙东等动物保健 巨头占据美国乃至世界市场龙头，近年来数家动保行业存在宠物板块超过牲畜板 块趋势。

10 月出栏环比总体上升。截止11 月14 日，已有18 家上市生猪养殖企业披露10 月销售简报，10 月合计销售量达到1107.5 万头，同比减少6.3%，环比增长6.2%；1-10 月累计销售量达到1.06 亿头，同比增长31.7%。金新农、中粮家佳康、新希望环比增速较高，分别达到了47.8%、34.7%、24.7%；华统股份、神农集团、傲农生物、东瑞股份同比增速较高，分别达到了1379.9%、43.3%、37.1%、34.3%。1-10月大部分公司的出栏量计划完成度接近80%，其中京基智农已完成100 万头目标。

本轮“猪周期” 纯育肥环节产能去化幅度大于一体化产能， 进一步呈现出“缺肥猪不缺种猪”的状态。基于补栏节奏较慢，我们预计（1）本轮周期的行业盈利时长或拉长；（2）规模养殖产能逐渐填补退出的仔猪育肥产能，行业规模化程度进一步提升。推荐成本优势及出栏规模优势企业牧原股份；养殖成本持续下降，头均盈利具备相对优势的温氏股份；兼具成本优势及产能增长弹性的巨星农牧。受益标的：新希望、华统股份、天康生物、傲农生物等。