养殖板块：从能繁母猪存栏量看，产能持续去化。当前行业现金流紧张短期存在加速去产能的可能。 Q3消费旺季临近，价格有望回升至成本线以上。但仍需关注二次育肥影响，猪价存在持续低位运行 的可能。黄羽鸡或迎景气度提升，截至23年2月中在产父母代存栏处于相对低位，且雏鸡价格相对 偏低，未来消费提振，供需缺口体现，形成价格支撑。推荐牧原股份（002714）、巨星农牧 （603477）、温氏股份（300498）、立华股份（300761）。

CPI 同比增速不及市场预期，显示出物价仍有三重压力。第一，原油价格下跌和猪周期下行继续给 CPI 施加压力。第二，工业部门产能过剩仍对工业消费品价格有压制。第三，Q2 以来服务消费价格同比涨幅略有回调，显示需求恢复步调偏慢。6 月通胀数据显示出当前国内物价压力仍存，在此背景下，我们认为年内通胀低点或尚未过去，7 月 CPI 可能还会继续下行，我们预计 CPI 有 1-2 个月陷入负增速区间，主要有三个方面的原因：一是猪周期下行未结束，猪价上涨幅度有限；二是短期内国际油价对通胀的压制可能延续；三是在产能周期的影响下，短期内经济有延续工业品通缩的压力。

2022年12月至今，生猪养殖行业已累计亏损超半年，但能繁母猪存栏仅累计下降3%，产能去化缓慢，主因：1）规模化程度提高、抗风险能力增强；2）生产效率提升、复产能力增强；3）仔猪价格高位，种猪企业减产动力不足。22年祖代引种短缺已成定局，当前祖代存栏已较22年高点下降了9.5%。预计三季度祖代引种不足影响将传导至中下游，同时7-8月为补栏旺季，鸡苗价格有望回升，行业进入业绩兑现期。产业内上市公司都将受益于行业周期反转：上游养殖企业弹性更大（益生股份、民和股份）；全产业链覆盖企业更加稳健（圣农发展、仙坛股份、禾丰股份），下游食品加工企业亦将受益（春雪食品）。22年行业面临着外部需求低迷、内部竞争加剧的双重困境，经过行业大动荡后， 当前情况有所缓解；非洲猪瘟疫苗有望在2023年底上市，行业将进一步扩容。动保行业投资既有基本面改善支撑，亦有事件催化预期，建议关注：中牧股份、普莱柯和科前生物。

结合行业基本面边际变化以及估值情况来看,我们认为.今年农业行业的主线在生猪养殖板块。非瘟疫情后，生猪养殖行业格局发生较大变化，当前时点生猪养殖行业正在经历量变到质变的转变，依靠成本优势的持续扩张或为企业实现长期发展的有效路径。看好未来能持续高质量发展的养殖集团。重点推荐牧原股份，温氏股份，巨星农牧、京基智农、神农集团和中粮家佳康。

Indoor farming is an important part of modern agriculture for producing crops in a controlled environment. There is an increasing growth for indoor farming globally, propelled by the rising world population along with a consequent demand for consistent food supplies. Conventional agriculture is suitable for areas with sufficient land and water supply. Since the percentage of arable land and water supply to support conventional agriculture is diminishing, the demand for indoor farming is heightening. Indoor farms can help to grow the total crop yield per unit area by utilizing the stacked layers of potted seeds, and this is further expected to drive the market. Indoor farming technology mainly implements methods, including aquaponics, aeroponics, and hydroponics also utilizes artificial lighting, such as LED lights, for adequate light levels and nutrients. Indoor farming methods or concepts further employ various technologies that become the means of operation. For instance, to collect data, indoor farming depends on the Internet of Things (IoT), a global positioning system (GPS), and other sensor-based technologies, which allow seamless data collection. For data analysis, several farm management software and artificial intelligence (AI)-based tools can be utilized to make sense of the collected data, and later autonomous machines and other mechanical equipment can be employed to take necessary actions.

6 月能繁加速去化，供给过剩猪价持续承压。6 月消费演季猪价低迷，生猪积压致宰后均重下降缓慢。据浦益咨询，2023 年 6月全国生猪销售均价为 14.20 元/公斤，月环比-0.13 元/公斤，监控企业月屠宰量440.68 万头，环比-5.04%，6 月猪价及屠均环比下行主要受消费淡季需求疲弱影响。从宰后均重看，行业6月字后均重环比小幅-0.4%至 91.45 公斤/头，宰后均重降幅缓慢主要受 202204 以来生猪存栏积压供给后移影响，202302 消费淡季对猪肉积压的消化有限，预计 202303 猪价仍承压，当后均重受高温及养殖亏损等因素影响存在继续下行的动力及空间。

生猪:产能去化的边际、总量有望双重催化一一加速、新低,布局当下;种植:估值低位，收获季来临，种业进入密集催化期。

The 27th edition of the Fishery status reports was produced with financial support from the Fisheries Resources Research Fund, administered by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. The reports are an outcome of collaboration with fisheries researchers, management and industry throughout Australia. They draw on both published and unpublished reports from fishery assessment meetings, and workshops organised and funded by the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).