随着全球新冠疫情蔓延，全球大宗农产品波动加剧，我们认为，疫情对全球粮 食贸易的风险正在累积，对航运、物流、消费产生一定压力，特别是库存偏紧、 缺口扩大、进口依存度大的农产品受疫情影响更大。

19/20 年度我国小麦预期库消比高达 116%，未来或仍以结构性去库存为主。 据美国农业部 3 月供需报告预测：2019/20 年度全球小麦产量 7.65 亿吨，国内 消费量 7.55 亿吨，期末库存 2.87 亿吨，库消比 38%，较 18/19 年度上升 0.4 个百分点。我国小麦产量和消费量均为全球最高，2006-2019 年小麦自给率均 值高达 106%，仅进口部分优质专用小麦满足特定需求。2019/20 年度我国小 麦预期产量 1.34 亿吨，国内消费量 1.28 亿吨，期末库存 1.48 亿吨，库消比高 达 116%，未来或仍以结构性去库存为主。

原油价格对农产品价格的传导路径主要有：（1）直接传导：油价通过影响 生物燃料需求及下游化工品需求从而传导至农产品价格，例如与燃料乙醇 相关的玉米、白糖，与生物柴油相关的豆油、棕榈油、菜籽油、大豆等油 脂油料，互为替代品的棉花与化纤、合成橡胶与天然橡胶等。（2）间接传 导：油价反应了经济形势，而个别农产品品种的需求与经济增速相关性更 大，如与轮胎产业相关的天然橡胶；油价对农产品生产成本也具有影响。

本周猪价延续震荡下行。截至4月3日，国内外三元生猪均价为34.47 元/kg，较上周价格小幅下降 0.6 元/kg；仔猪均价约为 96.14 元/kg，较上 周价格上涨 3 元左右；白条肉均价约为 44.87 元/kg 左右，较上周价格下 跌 1 元左右。

横向多品类协同发展，纵向一体化先行。现阶段，国内生猪养殖行业正处于规模化提升阶段，尤其是经历了非洲猪 瘟疫情之后。一方面，生猪养殖行业自身规模程度的提升，另一方面，我 们认为国内企业可以借鉴巴西 JBS 发展路径，多产业、上下游协同发展， 以生猪养殖为基，横向发展禽类养殖，纵向涉足肉类加工。建议关注龙大 肉食、双汇发展、温氏股份。

The sports-nutrition industry is rapidly becoming mainstream, which is pushing the market for dairy ingredients, such as whey protein, casein, and milk proteins, among others. Dairy ingredients render desired nutritional value to the sports food products, thus, contributing toward their increasing usage in various supplements. Dairy ingredients are important sources of protein. For example, whey is well known for its high quality, high absorption, and superior content of amino acids, essential for muscle growth. This factor makes it a popular sports-nutrition ingredient. The use of whey and lactose ingredients, both in the processed food and nutritional sectors, has helped the market grow. Research suggests that dairy proteins, such as whey proteins and milk proteins, can also act as anti-aging agents. Moreover, these proteins might help decrease stress and reduce the cortisol concentration levels. Awareness among the masses, to become fit, remain in shape, and enhance immunity, has led to a significant growth in the demand for dairy proteins in the urban areas.