养猪本就是一门重资产、重资源、重技术、重人力、高门槛、融合多个学科技术 的复杂生意，非洲猪瘟的爆发使得行业门槛进一步提高，不具备人才、资金、技 术体系的个体户或将难以在未来的竞争中与集团型企业抗衡，亿元起步的行业门 槛将会颠覆人们对养猪的认识。站在行业重建的起点，本文复盘了非洲猪瘟的显 性、隐性影响，对未来产业趋势提出了明确的趋势：“金猪十年”，以详实的篇 幅阐述这门生意为何不容易，也提出了一些政策建议。当下节点，我们继续强烈 推荐代表未来产业升级方向的工业化封闭式养猪龙头：牧原股份、新希望。

The global wheat seeds market (henceforth, referred to as the market studied) was valued at USD 2,599.7 million in 2018, and it is projected to reach USD 3,424.7 million by 2024, at a projected CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period, 2019-2024. Wheat is a major part of the diet of the consumers across all the regions, and the demand for the same is increasing, owing to the rise in the population and the increase in the wheat-based manufactured products, such as breakfast cereals and pastries. Thus, this is expected to drive the global wheat seeds market during the forecast period. Moreover, wheat serves as an important part in agricultural feedstock for animals and is majorly used in making biofuels, which may be replacing fossil fuels in the years to come. Thus, good quality wheat seeds are demanded by the farmers to serve the factors mentioned above. In 2018, the US Wheat Associates stated that over the past ten years, the global human wheat consumption has increased 90 MMT, while feed wheat usage has increased 16 MMT, which indicates a growing need for wheat seeds.

The global seed market is expected to witness a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period. The market value is estimated at USD 52.31 billion in 2018 and is anticipated to reach to USD 74.93 billion by 2024. A sustained downturn in the world cereal market, coupled with slow organic growth, has made it difficult to maintain a consistent progression. The market slump compelled multinationals to look at opportunities for collaboration. This resulted in three major mergers & acquisitions in the seed industry, namely, Dow AgroSciences and DuPont, ChemChina and Syngenta, and Monsanto and Bayer.

近日，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平近日对全国春季农业生产工作作出重要指示，强调各级党委要把“三农”工作摆到重中之重的位置，统筹抓好决胜全面建成小康社会、决战脱贫攻坚的重点任务，打牢农业基础，补实“三农”领域短板，为打赢疫情防控阻击战、实现全年经济社会发展目标任务提供有力支撑。

2 月17 日，农业农村部官网发布《2020 年乡村产业工作要点》，目标要力求取得“三个进展”：一是在延伸产业链上，培育一批以种养为基础、以加工为纽带、以商贸物流为支撑的产业形态；二是促进融合发展，跨界配置农业与现代产业要素高位嫁接、交叉重组、渗透融合；三是拓展农业功能，发掘农业多种功能和乡村多重价值，催生新产业新业态。

农业农村部定调2020 年粮食产量1.3 万亿斤以上。2 月10 日，农业农村部印发《2020 年种植业工作要点》，目标突出“守底线、优结构、提质量”。