前言：近三年为疫情、虫害大年，非洲猪瘟、草地贪夜蛾、沙漠飞蝗、新 冠疫情接踵而至，冲击全球和国内农产品供需两端。尤其是进入2020 年， 虫害叠加新冠疫情不断地引发市场对粮食危机的担忧。根据世界粮食计划 署日前发布的《全球粮食危机报告》预警，2020 年全球面临严重粮食危 机的人口可能增至2.65 亿人。本文将对全球及中国的稻谷、小麦、玉米 （中国三大主粮）、大豆（全球面积最大的油料作物、植物蛋白的重要来 源）的供需基本面以及可能造成冲击的外部因素深入剖析，并展望国内主 要农产品短期和中长期的供需格局。

招采苗提价带动规模回升。随着政府对疫苗质量的重视，有采取优质优 价策略的趋势。2019 年开始，我国招采苗价格提升幅度显著。从部分 省份招采价格变化来看，相比于2018 年，2020 年春防招采价格禽流感 疫苗提价50%以上，口蹄疫疫苗提价幅度不等，但可以看出价差很大。 招采苗市场规模由量和价决定，量呈现底部向上缓慢恢复状态，价呈现 大幅上涨态势，将显著提升招采苗市场规模。

The market for compound feed is growing due to the increasing demand for dairy products, growing inclination toward animal-based food, and increase in feed demand around the world. Compound feed maintains the health of animals and, thus, helps increase the quality of end products, such as eggs, milk, meat, and fish. Cattles are one of the major consumers of compound feed, with a prominent share, due to high demand for beef around the world, followed by the poultry segment. Poultry and ruminants are expected to grow at a higher rate, due to the changing dynamics of industrialization in the meat industry. An increase in demand for fish protein is expected to lead the fish feed to grow at the fastest rate, during the forecast period. Europe dominates the market with a major share. The recent ban of antibiotics and increasing per capita meat consumption in potential regions of Europe are the main factors driving the market growth in Europe. Most of the farmers in Spain are focusing on boosting the immunity of livestock, which, in turn, may boost the compound feed market.

Plant-based beverages are natural and chemical-free milk products derived through grains, seeds, or nuts. They act as a substitute to dairy products for consumers who are allergic to dairy products. Some of the major plant- based beverages are coffee, RTD tea, coconut water, soymilk, and rice milk. The sources of plant-based beverages products covered in the report comprise soymilk, almond milk, rice milk, and other sources, which include coconut, oat, hemp, peanut, cashew, and others. Soymilk is more prominent segment, owing to huge demand of soy-based soft drinks in the global market.

While the largest restraint to any new entrant into the global insect feed market is the regulatory framework, many potential investors are troubled by the legislative hurdles. However, since insect farming for animal feed produces hundreds of times more protein feedstock from a single hectare of land compared to traditional sources, the existent political objections are starting to fade out. This indicates that the threat of new entrants is settling at medium. In regions like Australia, where the livestock industry mainly relies on conventional protein sources, like soybean meal and lupin seeds, the insect feed concept is mostly in the nascent stage. Although in markets like Australia the threat of substitutes is very high, the threat of substitutes in the Sub-Saharan Africa, where the insect feed inculcation into the animal feed is not very nascent, is moderate.

农林牧渔行业2019 年实现收入5475 亿元，yoy+6.42%；20Q1 实现收入1277 亿元，yoy+5.64%。自19Q2 起，行业盈利逐步恢复，19Q2-20Q1连续四个季度净利润率同比增加5 个百分点以上，近三个季度净利润率均达到11%以上。我们认为20 年牧原股份、海大集团等公司业绩有望稳健增长并巩固行业龙头地位，中牧股份业绩有望迎来拐点，瑞普生物受益于后周期，天康生物拥有养殖+疫苗双动能，有望展现业绩弹性，建议关注。