通过分析长周期数据，我们发现化肥价格与农产品价格高度正相关。2020 年， 受供需结构收紧影响，玉米等农产品价格大幅上涨，有望催化未来农产品供给 及化肥需求提升，叠加偏紧的磷肥、钾肥供应格局，看好化肥产品价格上涨弹 性。重点推荐国内磷复肥龙头企业新洋丰、贯穿磷化工全产业链的龙头企业兴 发集团，建议关注亚钾国际。

我们认为农业是强周期行业，在周期景气上行阶段，选股容错较高，对无法证伪 的企业应当抛弃偏见；反之，在周期下行阶段，选股容错较小，对无法证实的企 业应放下执念。因此，我们对 2021 年的农业观点为：看好周期景气上行的种植 链，拥抱畜禽链中管理层优秀的成长标的。

Veterinary software meets the requirements of veterinary professionals beyond the practice management optimization. Veterinary software functionality ranges from offering integrations to animal clinics and hospitals, maintaining a drug database for veterinary-focused pharmacies to consult, streamlining and ensuring industry compliance, and offering tools that support client engagement. Veterinary software creates efficiency and productivity within any part of animal-focused care delivery so veterinary professionals can emphasis on their work. Veterinary software are available as stand-alone software or are built to integrate with or supplement veterinary practice management software.