6 月份，受美国学校和政府级机关采购文化纸增多所带来的推动，美国文化纸工厂的订单出现增多，外加美国文化纸生产商——Resolute 突然宣布，将对其 Catawba 工厂的 PM2 涂布机械纸生产线运行至 6月底即实施关停，该条生产线设计产能是 20.2 万吨/年。如此突然关停的消息，迅即给美国的涂布文化纸产销带来立竿见影的推动，许多下游企业开始加大库存储备，驱使美国涂布文化纸正向供应紧俏方向迈进。在此局势下，美国主流涂布文化纸生产商纷纷宣布提涨价格，并形成近来美国文化纸市场变化的亮点所在。例如，Verso 宣布，从 8 月份开始，对新接单的超级压光纸 A 级、涂布化学浆纸和涂布机械浆纸价格提涨 40 美元/短吨。而受市场涨价 Catalyst Paper 也宣布，从 7 月份开始，对销往加拿大的各类文化纸价格提涨 59.5 加拿大元/吨。

造纸行业经过前两年的触底反弹，17 年上半年的业绩表现依旧不俗，目前市场风格有所转换，集中度低的纸种呈现弱周期情，预计龙头企业有望持续良好表现。定制家居市场打开，定制模式市场前景较好，龙头企业增速远高于家具行业均值且集中度逐步提升。建议关注造纸龙头企业和定制家具龙头企业。 

包装机械产品包括纸箱包装机械、食品包装机械、塑料包装机械等。近年来，全球包装机械行业呈稳步发展态势，2015 年销售额达到 400 亿美元，2016 年达到 420 亿美元，增长速度为 5%。包装设备制造商主要集中在美国，日本，德国，意大利，中国等国家。国外包装机械市场需求各有不同。食品和饮料行业在国家经济中占有重要的地位，在世界范围内，投资比重也很大，也是包装机械的最大买家，占有大概 60%的份额。制药行业是最少少受经济波动影响的行业，因为药物是人们生活的基本需要，这个行业采购占据所有包装机械 20%左右。

The food and beverage industry is the largest consumer of in-mold labels, dominating the market with a share of 75.1% in 2015. The remnant share was held by the chemical and household industry. In-mold label production reduces manual labor as most of the processes are automated. The labeling process is done in one step, eliminating the need for secondary operations such as the application of labels on containers.

The global photo merchandising market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.69% during the forecast period as vendors can charge a price premium for their services.The US is the leading country for photo merchandise due to huge popularity of photo cards. The photo card market in the US contributed 60% to the global photo card market due to the custom of sending cards during festive occasions.Photo gifts constitute the fastest growing segment in the market due to an increasing number of innovations that use photo merchandise.

The area of focus with respect to pet care packaging includes materials and machinery. The use of new materials in pet care packaging is expected to infuse more competition to the use of present set of materials during the forecast period.The market share of new materials is expected to go up by 10% in the next 10 years. Although the majority of the demand for pet care packaging is from the pet food sector, the non-pet food sector will see increased traction as the new packaging materials would be tested on non-food products for barrier efficiency during the forecast period.The design, function, food safety, and printing quality of packages are the parameters to look for with respect to vendors. With food safety being paramount,the supplementary factors such as the quality of the outer packaging and the print quality of the packaging are also the determining factor in selecting a vendor.The volatility of raw materials does impact the packaging industry. Although there is a considerable lag in the actual impact and passing on the impact to end-users, it has been passed on to end-users over the course of time. This impact has been considerably offset by adopting long-term sourcing contracts with suppliers and also with customers based on demand estimation.At the operational level, regulations have not been able to impact the production lines for pouch making companies. Instances of alteration in production lines,reduced production, or complete shutdown due to regulation have been very few and negligible.

During the forecast period, printed packaging tapes will be used as the key feature for branding, packaging identification, and

improved logistics management. It is expected that the global packaging tape printing market to reach more than $30 billion by 2020. In this highly competitive market, vendors market their products by putting their logo and labels on packaging tapes.From the production point of view, quality and technology play an important role in the global packaging tapes market. The quality standards have been implemented by most of the key vendors, and also the adoption rate of most recent technologies is high. These two factors have high importance in the market. However, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have not been able to scale up on these factors

leading to a high-risk range.

涂布化学浆纸方面，价格自11月份停止下降后，12月份稳定。价格继续下降的压力仍然存在，但是没之前那么严峻。RISI预计，价格最早要到2017年下半年才能重回升势。英国市场，需求比欧洲其它市场稍好。纸企宣布将于1月份起提价10%，但市场人士认为提价成功可能性不大。 

本周各类纸张、纸浆、溶解浆、黏胶短纤价格均较为稳定：瓦楞纸出厂价稳定在 4338 元/吨，牛卡纸出厂价稳定在 4788 元/吨，灰底白板纸稳定在 4392元/吨，白卡纸稳定在 5801 元/吨；溶解浆价格稳定在 7930 元/吨。

消费升级驱动模式变革与产业整合力度加大是现阶段轻工行业面临的两大趋势，我们建议 2017 年轻工板块围绕“坚守确定性成长”与“寻找预期差”两条主线布局：有基本面与业绩支撑的确定性成长类个股，有望继续获得靓丽表现；此外估值合理，未来存在超预期事件的个股也有望成为“黑马”。