11 月，生产方面，石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.6%，增速和上年同期相比下降2.6个百分点；原油加工量5045.7 万吨，同比增长2.9%，增速比上月下降1.7 个百分点；原油生产553 万吨，同比下降1.3%。进出口方面，成品油出口量446.6 万吨，同比下降21.6%；进口原油4287.2 万吨，同比增长16.0%。

行业景气度降低，化工主要产品产量增速减慢，价格上涨后开始回落。从2016年开始，化工企业景气度逐渐上升，2018年第二季度开始回落。对于化工行业的主要产品（纯碱、烧碱、乙烯等），其产量当月同比在18年上半年有小幅上涨，但下半年逐步下降。化工产品价格从2016年开始稳步上升，在2017年2月至5月期间有过短期回落，而后继续上升，从2018年第三季度开始，化工产品的价格再次回落。

2018 年初至今受到各种因素叠加影响，大盘指数出现大幅下滑，市场整体表现较为低迷。截至2018

年12 月20 日，石油石化行业下跌17.42%，在所有中信一级行业中排第三。同期沪深300 指数下跌24.95%，石油石化行业跑赢沪深300 指数7.53%。同时行业估值不断下行，PE、PB 处于近几年底部。

回顾即将过去的2018年，油价先扬后抑，分水岭10.3。先扬的原因：OPEC减产效果显著，美国退出伊核协议，重启对伊朗制裁，多国响应减少或停止对伊原油进口，原油供给趋紧。转折点：10.3Brent/WTI达到86.29/76.41美元/桶，随着沙特记者卡舒吉遇害事件不断发酵，开启下跌通道。后抑的原因：沙特为换取美国支持增产，美国对伊制裁给予8个国家和地区180天的豁免期，中美贸易战愈战愈烈，市场对明年原油需求悲观。目前：美国、沙特、俄罗斯三大产油国原油产量处在记录高位，多家机构预期明年全球经济增长放缓，市场担忧供应过剩而需求趋弱。

从2016年开始，成品油出口配额出现重要变化，主要以地炼企业试点出口成品油为主，但实际效果并不理想。2017年，成品油出口配额的主要特征是出口模式发生变化，由一般贸易出口全面替代加工贸易出口。2018年，成品油出口配额的主要变化是紧跟市场行情，针对供过于求的局面，及时下放出口配额，尤其是第三批和第四批出口配额对缓解成品油市场压力起到显著成效，出口模式也延续2017年的主要以一般贸易为主，地炼企业仍未获得出口配额。展望2019年，随着炼化一体化项目的开工，我国成品油供过于求的局面将加重，成品油出口配额总额有望高于2018年，其中汽油需求尚未有好转支撑，汽油出口压力最大，柴油及煤油出口压力略小，出口配额管理制度受到挑战。

2019年化工行业面临的内外部环境不确定性增加：1）中美贸易摩擦风险仍在；2）在国内经济转型升级、金融去杠杆大背景下，以基建投资、房地产投资为主的固定资产投资增速下滑；3）国内消费面临走弱的可能；4）布伦特油价从85美元/桶调整至60美元/桶，预计油价继续低位整理。我们认为2019年化工投资难度加大，需要在不确定中寻找确定性机会，把握成长相对确定的细分子行业。

The degree of competition in Ecuador’s oil and gas sector can be characterised as low, with just one company – the state-run Petroecuador and its subsidiaries – dominating the production of natural gas and oil derivatives and accounting for the bulk of crude oil output (78.4% in 2017). Nevertheless, the participation of private companies in the sector is set to increase, given the measures of the administration of president Moreno to attract private investment in the domestic oil and gas extraction industry – as evidenced by the launch of new bidding rounds, and the reinstatement of the production-sharing modality in oil and gas concessions.

At the central governmental level, the Indian oil and gas sector is governed by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The ministry has responsibility for all aspects of the sector, including exploration, production, refining, distribution, marketing and trade. Governance at the regional level varies by state. Some states (such as Rajasthan and Gujarat) have established energy directorates; in others, the role is subsumed within the departments of industry and commerce. The main regulatory bodies are the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board, which regulate the upstream and downstream sectors, respectively. Various other government bodies perform functions relevant to the oil and gas sector. These include the Centre for High Technology, the Oil Industry Development Board, the Oil Industry Safety Directorate, the Petroleum Conservation and Research Association and the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is responsible for policy formation and implementation in the field of energy and mineral resources, including oil and gas. Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities is an institution established by the Government of the Republic of Indonesia in 2013 to manage the upstream oil and gas business activities. National oil company Pertamina maintains a dominant position over all oil and gas up activities in the country, holds operatorship of all of Indonesia's refineries, and is the sole buyer of crude oil in Indonesia.

The latest issue of our O&G Capex Outlook Special Report indicates that spending on oil and gas will increase for a second consecutive year in 2019, solidifying the return of upstream development momentum following one of the most aggressive downcycles in recent history. That said, spending caution will prevail as producers increase their focus on fiscal discipline and cost efficiency. From a basket of 113 of the world's largest oil and gas companies, we estimate capex reached USD507bn in 2018. We expect this will rise to nearly USD540bn in 2019, representing a gain of 6.1% y-o-y. While oil prices have experienced notable gains over the past year, this represents a relatively subdued increase in capex. Spending has been reined in as producers expand on efforts to boost profitability and shareholder value.