运价根据淡旺季表现，往往在年内呈前低后高走势，因此若年均运价为1.85万美元/天左右，就代表在上半年淡季时，运价可能已经低于了1万美元/天的现金保本点。

根据BP 能源统计，2017 年全球石油贸易量为6759 万桶/天，需求为9819 万桶/天，其中贸易量占总需求的比重为68.84%，较之前一年上升1.7 个百分点；而80 年代全球贸易量占总需求比例基本在40-50%之间。我们认为全球石油贸易扩大主要原因有：全球原油的生产地与消费地不平衡；新的大型炼油厂出现，可以加工适用性更强的原油，增加了原油调和市场的规模；金融工具增多，带来了更多的对冲手段等。

Petroleum resins market has been segmented on the basis of product, applications, end-use and regions. petroleum resins are made up of naphtha and are of mainly four types, C5 resins, C9 resins, copolymerization of C5/C9 resins and the hydrogenated resins. These resins are used as a tacking agent in various applications including rubber compounding, paints, printing inks, adhesives, tapes and labels. The major end-use industry of the petroleum resins include construction, automotive, consumer goods, and packaging.

Exploration and production licences in Poland are granted by the Ministry of the Environment's geological unit. The unit, known as the Department of Geology and Geological Concessions, has a wide range of responsibilities, which include shaping the direction of Poland's concession policy, levying charges and royalty payments, promoting the country's oil and gas reserves, and supervising the collection and processing of geological data. PGNiG dominates the upstream oil and gas segment, although there is no mandatory state participation in licences. PGNiG provides gas supply to industry and households, purchasing gas from Russia, Central Asia, Norway and Germany.

The blockade on Qatar, imposed in mid-2017, has disrupted the supply of products such as polymers with the country representing 2% of global polyethylene (PE) supply. Qatar's PE supplies to the GCC and Egypt amount to just under 100,000tpa, which can be easily replaced by production elsewhere in the region. As such, cuts in Qatari supplies are likely to have a greater impact on Dubai's port than in regional markets, but on a global level will affect international trade flows in petrochemicals and polymers. While there is little incentive in the GCC and Egypt to lift the blockade, it has caused complications for the EDC-VCM-PVC chain as well as supplies of ethylene, PE and methanol in addition to gas supplies, particularly to India. However, these complications are now being worked around and the negative impact of the trade blockade has receded. As such, Qatar's sour relations with some regional neighbours will not hinder petrochemicals trade unless unexpected events lead to a further deterioration in geopolitical risk.

整体结论：化工行业2019年景气预计将震荡下行，主要下游增速放缓，供给端新增产能提速。2018年里，我国经济形势震荡，中国化工产品价格指数自2018年9月一路下滑，结束两年来的上涨，开始进入下行周期。化工行业主要下游需求放缓，尤其是地产行业较为低迷，房屋竣工面积累计同比在2017年11月开始转负，2018年大幅下滑，商品房销售速度放缓；我国汽车月销量当月同比在2018年7月转负，出现下降；空调月销量自2018年7月起下滑，纺织服装零售额低速增长，并未形成明显需求拉动。

Russian petrochemicals output grew at a faster rate than industrial growth in 2017. Russian chemicals output grew 4.3% in 2017, largely due to growth in fertilizer, according to Rosstat data. Ethylene output rose 2.5% to 2.86mn tonnes, benzene grew 4.2% to 1.36mn tonnes, caustic soda was up 6.1% to 1.24mn tonnes and mineral fertilizer production grew 8.2% to 22.52mn tonnes. In contrast, industrial growth was just 1.8%. Higher oil prices are spurring the domestic economy following several years of stagnation, but this trend has also hiked naphtha prices and raised the cost of production at a time when markets have been limited by US and EU sanctions.

In July, KOGAS and the Busan Port Corporation (BPC) signed an agreement to jointly study the feasibility of developing a floating LNG bunkering terminal, as part of a broader move to make LNG available as an alternative shipping fuel ahead of the IMO’s cap on sulphur content in global bunker fuels at 0.5% in 2020. KOGAS’ LNG sales rose 10.5% y-o-y in July to 2.36mn tonnes, with favourable policies and the temporary closure of several aging nuclear plants, driving stronger sales to both power generators and industrial end-users.

2018年初截至11月7日申万化工指数下跌26.4%，跑输沪深300指数约6.3个百分点。2018年初截至11月7日石油化工、化学纤维、化学制品、橡胶、化学原料、塑料子行业均表现为下跌，跌幅分别为11%、21%、27%、29%、33%、35%。

化工景气指数持续为负，二级市场基础化工指数（中信）跌 6.08%，上证跌 3.72%。 油价下跌，周四布油收盘价 62.60 美元/桶，周跌 4.02 美元/桶，美国 11 月 23 日当周石油钻机数 885 口，环比减 3 口，前值增 2口，美国原油库存、产量上升、OPEC 持续增产、伊朗制裁 8 国豁免 180 天，原油继续大跌。