本周上证综合指数上涨1.8%，钢铁板块上涨4.34%。期间钢价经历短期调整后开始重新上，中期来看今年经济偏平。

近日铝价再上13000，一周之内上涨接近5%，截止1 月13 日现货价格收于13310 元/吨，沪铝主力收于13430 元/吨。经历了一个月的震荡休整之后铝价再度上行，市场关注其上涨背后的原因。而从月度和周度的高频数据可以看出，复产和新投产的电解铝产能释放量仍在增加，2016 年12 月电解铝的产量同比和环比增速仍快，且社会库存还在上行，显示供需端并无强逻辑予以支撑，因此市场普遍将此番涨价归谬于政策带来的预期变化。

Machine tools play a dominant role in the manufacturing industry as they are incorporated in almost every metal processing application. These tools are basically used for cutting and shaping metals and other materials based on the specification of the product manufactured. Machine tools help to process and manufacture critical components with utmost accuracy and ease. Based on the criticality of the operation, the machine tool used can be conventional or CNC. Machine tools include products such as machining centers, grinding machines, and turning machines.

2017 年，美元仍是影响贵金属价格的核心因素，长期负相关性更加显著。长周期来看美国经济在全球占比下行有助于贵金属趋势性走强。贵金属在美元指数升值或贬值时表现出的价格弹性并不对称：美元升值贵金属相对美元贬值幅度小；美元贬值贵金属相对美元升值幅度大。我们预计明年联储加息 1 至 2 次，上半年难以再次加息。贵金属适宜波段交易，上半年美元指数震荡回调时上涨概率大，而下半年美元指数走强时下跌概率大。

本周钢价呈现高位震荡走强态势，钢材综合指数最终环比上涨4.59%，进而创年内新高，此外长材与板材指数亦分别上涨4.44%、4.74%。目前，随着季节性因素显现，需求端整体已趋于弱化，钢材社会库存连续第二周累积。

到2020年底，全省压减钢铁产能300万吨以上，产能利用率提高到85%以上，钢铁企业数减少到20家左右的目标。

资增速将有所回落，财政收支比持续创新高及淡季深入抑制地产投资；综合判断，我们认为12 月份需求将大概率收缩。供给方面，现阶段煤焦供应紧张态势不改，叠加入冬后华北地区环保治理压力加大、唐山环保限产持续升级，钢厂检修或焖炉比例进一步提高，整体钢市将呈现供需两弱格局，钢价将围绕成本端波动。

Metal fabrication is a process that involves building metal structures by cutting, bending, and assembling. Metal fabrication is a value-added process that encompasses the construction of machines and other structures from various raw materials. Large fabrication shops may employ a range of value-added processes that include welding, cutting, forming, and machining in a single facility. These large fabrication shops offer additional value to their customers by eliminating the need for multiple vendors for different services. Under ideal circumstances, metal fabrication services usually commence with detailed shop drawings that include precise measurements. Post approval, the next stage is fabrication. This involves fabrication shops that are primarily employed by contractors, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and value-added resellers (VARs). Typical orders could include anything from loose parts, structural frames for buildings and heavy equipment, to stairs and hand railings for buildings.

今日钢铁板块小幅跑赢大盘，柳钢再度涨停。虽然在成本推动钢价上涨的情形中，钢铁盈利并不顺畅，叠加估值仍处高位，板块爆发趋势性行情概率较小，但由于年底机构换仓或加速板块轮动，板块因前期表现羸弱而目前涨价、供给侧改革催化而仍有阶段性补涨行情。

2016 年产能过剩并未实质改善，但钢价和股价走势已逐渐趋于一致。2017 年需求预期难以明显好转，但供给侧改革边际效果将增强。2017 年趋势性机会不大，结构性机会仍值得把握，推荐国企改革、需求景气子行业和转型主题相关标的。