对于当前市场持续的低波动状态，我们可以结合对基本面数据和市场估值的跟踪观察来理解：一方面，短期来看无论是调查数据还是近期发布的经济数据，都显示出短期需求的边际走弱仍在延续，从新发布的PMI 数据来看仍低于50的枯荣线，同时细分价格指数环比明显下降预示短期PPI 仍然偏低，在通胀走低需求偏弱背景下，A 股二季度盈利增速承压，短期来看降低了市场胜率；另一方面，无论是看市场的绝对估值还是相对估值水平都处于赔率占优的状态，当前PB 中位数处于历史31%分位数，稳定价值风格的ERP 处于历史86%分位数，对于中长期投资者而言仍然是可以选择超配A 股的时间窗口，除此之外反映市场结构性风险的beta 分散度指标自上月开始持续走低，市场高beta个股数量持续减少，反映投机交易数量的降低，有利于降低指数的尾部风险。综合来看，短期市场仍处于低胜率中高赔率的状态，且在投机交易持续减少的背景下，低波动的环境有望延续。

2023 年5 月挖机行业销量16809 台，同比下降18.5%，好于CME 预测降幅25%。其中，国内销量6592 台，同比下降46%，与预期基本一致；出口10217 台，同比增长21%，好于7%预期值。受下游项目资金面紧张影响，5 月工程机械内销下滑幅度仍较大。从地产、基建数据看，2023 年4月房屋新开工面积同比下滑27%，地产投资完成额同比下滑16%，地产施工热度未回暖。基建投资完成额1.8 万亿元，同比增长8%，维持较高增速。2022&2023 年Q1 十七家A 股工程机械企业合计实现营收3240/804 亿元，同比变动-13%/+4%，归母净利润161/59 亿元，同比变动-47%/+6%，Q1 业绩增速转正，随着行业基数自然回落，预计全年行业增速前低后高。

5 月美国新能源车销量12.1 万辆，同比+48.4%，环比+5.9%。渗透率8.5%，环比略升，维持在历史高位。供给端持续丰富推动销量快速增长，除特斯拉外的其余车型销量环比+10.2%，同比+87%，表现强势；新车型持续发力，今年以来美国新上市车型6款，5 月贡献销量2772 辆，占比2.3%，环比+0.8pct。预计美国2023 年新能源车销量160-180 万辆，同比+62%-81%。

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welder's leather aprons Manufacture of work wear Manufacture of other outerwear made of woven, knitted or crocheted fabric, non-wovens etc. for men, women and children: Coats, suits, ensembles, jackets, trousers, skirts etc. Manufacture of underwear and nightwear made of woven, knitted or crocheted fabric, lace etc. for men, women and children: Shirts, T-shirts, underpants, briefs, pyjamas, nightdresses, dressing gowns, blouses, slips, brassieres, corsets etc. Manufacture of babies' garments, tracksuits, ski suits, swimwear etc.

welder's leather aprons Manufacture of work wear Manufacture of other outerwear made of woven, knitted or crocheted fabric, non-wovens etc. for men, women and children: Coats, suits, ensembles, jackets, trousers, skirts etc. Manufacture of underwear and nightwear made of woven, knitted or crocheted fabric, lace etc. for men, women and children: Shirts, T-shirts, underpants, briefs, pyjamas, nightdresses, dressing gowns, blouses, slips, brassieres, corsets etc. Manufacture of babies' garments, tracksuits, ski suits, swimwear etc.