全球主要国家均在推进电力结构的多元化。各国由于不同的资源禀赋与历史沿革，电力能源结构大相径庭。大多数国家依然以传统能源为主导，如中国依赖煤电，美国倚重燃气发电，日本气煤并重，巴西以水电为主。部分发达国家如德国、法国与西班牙等国的风光核等新能源发电占比已较为显著。从整体趋势上看，在第三次石油危机的刺激下，自2003 年始，全球主要国家加快了谋求能源安全独立，减少环境污染的步伐，基于各自的自然资源与技术储备，大力发展新能源，迈上了电力结构多元化的进程。

投资观点：从中期维度看，我们认为煤价已经进入新常态区间，价格波动性会减弱，未来几年大致区间就位于500-600 元/吨之间，成本曲线左侧的龙头煤企将维持较为稳定的盈利水平，主流煤企7-8 倍PE 低估值，5%以上的高股息就具备较强吸引力，继续看好板块的估值修复逻辑。推荐股息率较高的：中国神华、陕西煤业、平煤股份、盘江股份等，同时建议关注弹性标的：兖州煤业、淮北矿业、潞安环能、西山煤电等，煤炭+电解铝标的：露天煤业、神火股份，焦炭标的建议关注：金能科技、开滦股份。

预计煤炭上市公司半年报业绩同比下跌 20%左右，与 1 季度跌幅相似，未 来跌幅将逐季收窄，走稳。预计全年业绩下跌 10%左右，2021 年业绩能保 持稳定或有小幅增长。总体上市公司利润率、ROE 略有下降，但仍维持历 史上中高位置。上市公司资产质量普遍继续向好。板块较长时间跑输大盘， 估值历史最低，为阶段性投资机会带来的较好弹性。

6 月当月产量环比回升，陕西增产晋蒙减产持续：2020 年6 月，全国煤炭产量3.32 亿吨，同比下降1.20%，环比回升4.84%。晋蒙陕月度产量同比分别变化-1.23%、-9.76%和-3.68%，环比分别变化10.36%、-1.31%和0.50%。

ESG 是关注企业环境、社会、治理绩效而非传统财务绩效的投资理念和企 业评价标准。国内 ESG 投资仍处于规模化发展初期阶段，ESG 信息披露 程度不高，19 年钢铁、煤炭行业上市公司社会责任报告披露率分别为 56%、 54%。钢铁煤炭企业受行业属性拖累，上市公司 ESG 评级一般，且剔除法 下不占优势。随着 A 股上市公司逐渐被纳入 MSCI、富时罗素等指数，为 提高外资配置比例，钢煤企业应主动推进 ESG 体系建设，一方面做好 ESG 相关工作，例如建设“绿色钢厂”、“智能煤矿”等，另一方面建立 ESG 相 关信息详尽、稳定的披露机制，提升 ESG 评级表现，抓住外资配置机遇。

Needle coke industry is a primary raw material that finds its significant application in the production of steel, aluminum, stainless steel, silicon metals, and some other ferrous as well as non-ferrous metals. Needle coke also finds its key applications in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries that are in high demand in the automotive industry. Petroleum needle coke is mainly preferred by steel and battery manufacturers. This is because the battery and steel manufacturers working on the EAF technique only work on high-quality needle coke, ultra-high purity (UHP) for the production of lithium-ion battery anodes, and graphite electrodes. The growth of the needle coke market can be attributed to a steady surge in demand for lithium-ion battery anodes to be used in lithium-ion batteries coupled with high demand for graphite electrodes across the steel industry. The steel industry witnessed a growth rate of approximately 4% in 2018 in terms of production as compared to the previous year. Along with this, the share of electric arc furnace (EAF) route of steel production is increasing as compared to that of BOF, and this is further expected to provide impetus to the demand for graphite electrodes, thus influencing the growth of global needle coke market. The needle coke market is a very concentrated market consisting of approximately ten giant players. GrafTech International Ltd. and Phillips 66 Company are the leading manufacturers active in the needle coke market.