上半年CS煤炭上涨13.05%，虽略跑输大盘，但在所有行业中仍处中上水平（13/29）。当前煤炭板块 PB 为1.08 倍，仅为 2005 年以来约 5%分位水平，板块整体估值受到压制。在需求弱稳，供给阶段性收紧下板块仍具投资机会，估值修复的阶段性行情仍存。 

2019 年以来煤价表现整体好于预期。其中，秦港 5500 大卡动力煤均价 606元/吨，相比 18 年上半年和全年均价 663、647 元/吨仅略有下滑，而代表企业盈利的主产地动力煤和焦煤均价相比去年同期小幅上涨 2.4%和 3.4%，相比去年全年均价基本持平。上半年煤价超预期主要由于供给端维持偏紧，煤炭产量维持低位，1-5 月产量仅小幅增长 0.9%，需求端钢铁、水泥产量增速也维持高位。

近年来，煤炭行业加速推进信息化、智能化建设，这个曾经被贴上“傻大黑粗”标签的行业，已经建成了 100 多个智能化采煤工作面，实现了地面一键启动、井下有人巡视、无人值守。当前，我国煤炭企业处于从劳动密集型向人才、技术密集型转变的阶段，煤炭智能开采能够极大提高劳动生产率，减少井下现场作业人员。相关规划明确，到 2020 年我国将建成 100 个初级智能化示范煤矿，2025年全部大型煤矿基本实现智能化。

In 2017, China’s coal mining sector registered an improved y/y performance, which was attributed to a number of factors such as the favourable domestic economic conditions and the ongoing supply-side reform and coal industry consolidation, accompanied by high coal prices. The government continued its efforts to “clean up” the coal sector and optimise its operating efficiency through a number of measures. The main stress was put on the restructuring of SOEs, elimination of small, outdated and inefficient production facilities, as well as decreasing the excess coal production capacity. The stronger performance of China’s coal sector in 2017 was also a result of the improved balance between coal supply and demand on the domestic market, the increased power consumption and the y/y recovery of thermal power generation. The above factors contributed to improved production efficiency and higher profitability of the coal mining businesses. The revenue of coal mining enterprises rose from RMB 2,233bn in 2016 to RMB 2,544bn in 2017, while the net profit hiked from RMB 116bn to RMB 296bn. The number of coal mining enterprises rose to 5,111, up from 5,049 units in 2016.

5 月当月,全国煤炭产量 3.12 亿吨,同比增长 3.5%。10大产煤省份中，河南、山东、安徽、黑龙江等省份合计减产 290 万吨，减量较上月降低 56%；贵州、河北、新疆恢复正增长，合计同比增产 198.07 万吨。陕西煤炭产量同比下降 8.06%，降幅较上月缩小 3.33 个百分点。